한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
- 2002.06a
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- Pages.9-15
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- 2002
Prediction of the number of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in TC season
여름철 북서태평양 태풍발생 예측을 위한 통계적 모형 개발
- Sohn, Keon-Tae (Department of Statistics, Pusan National University) ;
- Hong, Chang-Kon (Department of Statistics, Pusan National University) ;
- Kwon, H.-Joe (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University) ;
- Park, Jung-Kyu (Department of Climate forecating, Korea Meteorological Administration)
- Published : 2002.06.30
Abstract
This paper presents the seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) using the generalized linear model (GLM) and dynamic linear model (DLM) based on 51-year-data (1951-2001) in TC season (June to November). The numbers of TC and TY are predictands and 16 indices (the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, the synoptic factors over East asia and WNP) are considered as potential predictors. With 30-year moving windowing, the estimation and prediction of TC and TY are performed using GLM. If GLM forecasts have some systematic error like a bias, DLM is applied to remove the systematic error in order to improve the accuracy of prediction.
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