• International Journal of Ocean System Engineering
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.116-130
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• 2013

The prediction of ocean currents in real time over the warning times of a few hours or days is required in planning many operation-related activities in the ocean. Traditionally this is done through numerical models which are targeted toward producing spatially distributed information. This paper discusses a complementary method to do so when site-specific predictions are desired. It is based on the use of a recurrent type of neural network as well as the statistical tool of model tree. The measurements made at a site in Indian Ocean over a period of 4 years were used. The predictions were made over 72 time steps in advance. The models developed were found to be fairly accurate in terms of the selected error statistics. Among the two modeling techniques the model tree performed better showing the necessity of using distributed models for different sub-domains of data rather than a unique one over the entire input domain. Typically such predictions were associated with average errors of less than 2.0 cm/s. Although the prediction accuracy declined over longer intervals, it was still very satisfactory in terms of theselected error criteria. Similarly prediction of extreme values matched with that of the rest of predictions. Unlike past studies both east-west and north-south current components were predicted fairly well.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.369-378
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• 2018

Purpose: The aim of this study was to construct a saponin content-predicting model using shortwave infrared imaging spectroscopy. Methods: The experiment used a shortwave imaging spectrometer and ENVI spectral acquisition software sampling a spectrum of 910 nm-2500 nm. The corresponding preprocessing and mathematical modeling analysis was performed by Unscrambler 9.7 software to establish a ginsenoside nondestructive spectral testing prediction model. Results: The optimal preprocessing method was determined to be a standard normal variable transformation combined with the second-order differential method. The coefficient of determination, $R^2$, of the mathematical model established by the partial least squares method was found to be 0.9999, while the root mean squared error of prediction, RMSEP, was found to be 0.0043, and root mean squared error of calibration, RMSEC, was 0.0041. The residuals of the majority of the samples used for the prediction were between ${\pm}1$. Conclusion: The experiment showed that the predicted model featured a high correlation with real values and a good prediction result, such that this technique can be appropriately applied for the nondestructive testing of ginseng quality.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.83-99
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• 2023

The temperature prediction approaches of three important locations in an operational longitudinal slab track-bridge structure by using three typical neural network methods based on the field measuring platform of four meteorological factors and internal temperature. The measurement experiment of four meteorological factors (e.g., ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity) temperature in the three locations of the longitudinal slab and base plate of three important locations (e.g., mid-span, beam end, and Wide-Narrow Joint) were conducted, and then their characteristics were analyzed, respectively. Furthermore, temperature prediction effects of three locations under five various meteorological conditions are tested by using three neural network methods, respectively, including the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). More importantly, the predicted effects of solar radiation in four meteorological factors could be identified with three indicators (e.g., Root Means Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Correlation Coefficient of R2). In addition, the LSTM method shows the best performance, while the CNN method has the best prediction effect by only considering a single meteorological factor.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.183-194
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• 2023

This study presents the prediction of the California bearing ratio (CBR) of coarse- and fine-grained soils using artificial intelligence technology. The group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm, an artificial neural network-based model, was used in the prediction of the CBR values. In the design of the prediction models, various combinations of independent input variables for both coarse- and fine-grained soils have been used. The results obtained from the designed GMDH-type neural networks (GMDH-type NN) were compared with other regression models, such as linear, support vector, and multilayer perception regression methods. The performance of models was evaluated with a regression coefficient (R²), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed that GMDH-type NN algorithm had higher performance than other regression methods in the prediction of CBR value for coarse- and fine-grained soils. The GMDH model had an R² of 0.938, RMSE of 1.87, and MAE of 1.48 for the input variables {G, S, and MDD} in coarse-grained soils. For fine-grained soils, it had an R² of 0.829, RMSE of 3.02, and MAE of 2.40, when using the input variables {LL, PI, MDD, and OMC}. The performance evaluations revealed that the GMDH-type NN models were effective in predicting CBR values of both coarse- and fine-grained soils.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.373-373
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• 2021

Rainfall forecasting is an important issue that is applied in many areas, such as agriculture, flood warning, and water resources management. In this context, this study proposed a statistical and machine learning-based forecasting model for monthly rainfall. The Bayesian Gaussian process was chosen to optimize the hyperparameters of the Stacked Long Short-term memory (SLSTM) model. The proposed SLSTM model was applied for predicting monthly precipitation of Seoul station, South Korea. Data were retrieved from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in the period between 1960 and 2019. Four schemes were examined in this study: (i) prediction with only rainfall; (ii) with deseasonalized rainfall; (iii) with rainfall and minimum temperature; (iv) with deseasonalized rainfall and minimum temperature. The error of predicted rainfall based on the root mean squared error (RMSE), 16-17 mm, is relatively small compared with the average monthly rainfall at Seoul station is 117mm. The results showed scheme (iv) gives the best prediction result. Therefore, this approach is more straightforward than the hydrological and hydraulic models, which request much more input data. The result indicated that a deep learning network could be applied successfully in the hydrology field. Overall, the proposed method is promising, given a good solution for rainfall prediction.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2004.11c
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• pp.301-303
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• 2004

In this work, we develop on-line traffic prediction algorithm for real-time VBR traffic. There are a number of important issues: (i) The traffic prediction algorithm should exploit the stochastic characteristics of the underlying traffic and (ii) it should quickly adapt to structural changes in underlying traffic. GOP ARIMA model effectively addresses this issues and it is used as basis in our bandwidth prediction. Our prediction model deploy Kalman filter to incorporate the prediction error for the next prediction round. We examine the performance of GOP ARIMA based prediction with linear prediction with LMS and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm exhibits superior performam againt the rest.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1053-1063
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• 2017

Power prediction is critical to improve power efficiency in Smart Grids. Markov chain provides a useful tool for power prediction. With careful investigation of practical power datasets, we find an interesting phenomenon that the stochastic property of practical power datasets does not follow the Markov features. This mismatch affects the prediction accuracy if directly using Markov prediction methods. In this paper, we innovatively propose a spatial transform based data processing to alleviate this inconsistency. Furthermore, we propose an enhanced power prediction method, named by Spatial Mapping Markov-Difference (SMMD), to guarantee the prediction accuracy. In particular, SMMD adopts a second prediction adjustment based on the differential data to reduce the stochastic error. Experimental results validate that the proposed SMMD achieves an improvement in terms of the prediction accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art solutions.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.270-278
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• 2014

This paper describes an improvement of space objects orbit prediction. To screen possible collisions between operational satellites and space objects, the TLE (Two-Line Element) was used as pseudo-measurement and than the orbit determination and orbit prediction were performed through the flight dynamics system. For determining the orbits, the state vectors were assumed by a series of TLEs within a certain period. The propagation error was analyzed according to the fitting period and a number of pseudo-observations. In order to find out the improvement of orbit prediction with the proposed method, KOMPSAT-2, 3 having the precise orbit in the meter-level range were first applied. Then the result applied to space objects under the same conditions was analyzed. As a result of the RMS error comparison with the orbit prediction of space object, the precision of orbit prediction was improved by approximately 90% for seven days prediction. The improved orbit prediction of space objects can be utilized in the daily analysis for initial screening of the close space objects at high risk.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.58 no.5
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Oil and steel prices, which are major pricescosts in the shipbuilding industry, were predicted. Firstly, the error of the moving average line (N=3-5) was examined, and in all three error analyses, the moving average line (N=3) was small. Secondly, in the linear prediction of data through existing theory, oil prices rise slightly, and steel prices rise sharply, but in reality, linear prediction using existing data was not satisfactory. Thirdly, we identified the limitations of linear prediction methods and confirmed that oil and steel price prediction was somewhat similar to actual moving average line prediction methods. Due to the high volatility of major price flows, large errors were inevitable in the forecast section. Through the time series analysis method at the end of this paper, we were able to achieve not bad results in all analysis items relative to artificial intelligence (Prophet). Predictive data through predictive analysis using eight predictive models are expected to serve as a good research foundation for developing unique tools or establishing evaluation systems in the future. This study compares the basic settings of artificial intelligence programs with the results of core price prediction in the shipbuilding industry through time series prediction theory, and further studies the various hyper-parameters and event effects of Prophet in the future, leaving room for improvement of predictability.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.12 no.11
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• pp.134-144
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• 2023

Nowadays, Deep Learning (DL) technology is being used in several government departments. South Korea imports a lot of seafood. If the demand for fishery products is not accurately predicted, then there will be a shortage of fishery products and the price of the fishery product may rise sharply. So, South Korea's Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries is attempting to accurately predict seafood imports using deep learning. This paper introduces the solution for the fish import prediction in South Korea using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. It was found that there was a huge gap between the sum of consumption and export against the sum of production especially in the case of two species that are Hairtail and Pollock. An import prediction is suggested in this research to fill the gap with some advanced Deep Learning methods. This research focuses on import prediction using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning methods to predict the import amount more precisely. For the prediction, two Deep Learning methods were chosen which are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Moreover, the Machine Learning method was also selected for the comparison between the DL and ML. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was selected for the error measurement which shows the difference between the predicted and actual values. The results obtained were compared with the average RMSE scores and in terms of percentage. It was found that the LSTM has the lowest RMSE score which showed the prediction with higher accuracy. Meanwhile, ML's RMSE score was higher which shows lower accuracy in prediction. Moreover, Google Trend Search data was used as a new feature to find its impact on prediction outcomes. It was found that it had a positive impact on results as the RMSE values were lowered, increasing the accuracy of the prediction.