• Title/Summary/Keyword: error estimate

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Comparison of total energy intakes estimated by 24-hour diet recall with total energy expenditure measured by the doubly labeled water method in adults

  • Kim, Eun-Kyung;Fenyi, Justice Otoo;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Myung-Hee;Yean, Seo-Eun;Park, Kye-Wol;Oh, Kyungwon;Yoon, Sungha;Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko;Park, Jonghoon;Kim, Jung-Hyun;Yoon, Jin-Sook
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.646-657
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    • 2022
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The doubly labeled water (DLW) method is the gold standard for estimating total energy expenditure (TEE) and is also useful for verifying the validities of dietary evaluation tools. In this study, we compared the accuracy of total energy intakes (TEI) estimated by the 24-h diet recall method with TEE obtained using the doubly labeled water method. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This study involved 71 subjects aged 20-49 yrs. Over a 14-day period, three 24-h diet recalls per subject (2 weekdays and 1 weekend day) were used to estimate energy intakes, while TEE was measured using the DLW method. The paired t-test was used to determine the significance of differences between TEI and TEE results, and the accuracy of the 24-h recall method was determined by accuracy predictions percentage, root mean square error, and bias. RESULTS: Average study subject age was 33.4 ± 8.6 yrs. The association between TEI and TEE was positive and significant (r = 0.463, P < 0.001), and the difference between TEI (2,084.3 ± 684.2 kcal/day) and TEE (2,401.7 ± 480.3 kcal/day) was also significant (P < 0.001). In all study subjects, mean TEI was 12.0% (307.5 ± 629.3 kcal/day) less than mean TEE, and 12.2% (349.4 ± 632.5 kcal/day) less in men and 11.8% (266.7 ± 632.5 kcal/day) less in women. Rates of TEI underprediction for all study subjects, men, and women, were 60.5%, 51.4%, and 66.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that 24-h diet recall underreports energy intakes. More research is needed to corroborate our findings and evaluate the accuracy of 24-h recall with respect to additional demographics.

Quantitative Estimation Method for ML Model Performance Change, Due to Concept Drift (Concept Drift에 의한 ML 모델 성능 변화의 정량적 추정 방법)

  • Soon-Hong An;Hoon-Suk Lee;Seung-Hoon Kim
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 2023
  • It is very difficult to measure the performance of the machine learning model in the business service stage. Therefore, managing the performance of the model through the operational department is not done effectively. Academically, various studies have been conducted on the concept drift detection method to determine whether the model status is appropriate. The operational department wants to know quantitatively the performance of the operating model, but concept drift can only detect the state of the model in relation to the data, it cannot estimate the quantitative performance of the model. In this study, we propose a performance prediction model (PPM) that quantitatively estimates precision through the statistics of concept drift. The proposed model induces artificial drift in the sampling data extracted from the training data, measures the precision of the sampling data, creates a dataset of drift and precision, and learns it. Then, the difference between the actual precision and the predicted precision is compared through the test data to correct the error of the performance prediction model. The proposed PPM was applied to two models, a loan underwriting model and a credit card fraud detection model that can be used in real business. It was confirmed that the precision was effectively predicted.

Soil moisture estimation using the water cloud model and Sentinel-1 & -2 satellite image-based vegetation indices (Sentinel-1 & -2 위성영상 기반 식생지수와 Water Cloud Model을 활용한 토양수분 산정)

  • Chung, Jeehun;Lee, Yonggwan;Kim, Jinuk;Jang, Wonjin;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.211-224
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a soil moisture estimation was performed using the Water Cloud Model (WCM), a backscatter model that considers vegetation based on SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI (Multi-Spectral Instrument) images of a 40 × 50 km2 area including the Yongdam Dam watershed of the Geum River were collected for this study. As vegetation descriptor of WCM, Sentinel-1 based vegetation index RVI (Radar Vegetation Index), depolarization ratio (DR), and Sentinel-2 based NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were used, respectively. Forward modeling of WCM was performed by 3 groups, which were divided by the characteristics between backscattering coefficient and soil moisture. The clearer the linear relationship between soil moisture and the backscattering coefficient, the higher the simulation performance. To estimate the soil moisture, the simulated backscattering coefficient was inverted. The simulation performance was proportional to the forward modeling result. The WCM simulation error showed an increasing pattern from about -12dB based on the observed backscattering coefficient.

Scale Effect Analysis of LNG Cargo Containment System Using a Thermal Resistance Network Model (열저항 네트워크 모델을 이용한 LNG 화물창 Scale Effect 분석)

  • Hwalong You;Taehoon Kim;Changhyun Kim;Minchang Kim;Myungbae Kim;Yong-Shik Han;Le-Duy Nguyen;Kyungyul Chung;Byung-Il Choi;Kyu Hyung Do
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.60 no.4
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    • pp.222-230
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    • 2023
  • In the present work, the scale effect on the Boil-Off Rate (BOR) was investigated based on an analytical method to systematically evaluate the thermal performance of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Cargo Containment System (CCS). A two-dimensional thermal resistance network model was developed to accurately estimate the heat ingress into the CCS from the outside. The analysis was performed for the KC-1 LNG membrane tank under the IGC and USCG design conditions. The ballast compartment of both the LNG tank and cofferdam was divided into six sections and a thermal resistance network model was made for each section. To check the validity of the developed model, the analysis results were compared with those from existing literature. It was shown that the BOR values under the IGC and USCG design conditions were agreed well with previous numerical results with a maximum error of 1.03% and 0.60%, respectively. A SDR, the scale factor of the LNG CCS was introduced and the BOR, air temperature of the ballast compartment, and the surface temperature of the inner hull were obtained to examine the influence of the SDR on the thermal performance. Finally, a correlation for the BOR was proposed, which could be expressed as a simple formula inversely proportional to the SDR. The proposed correlation could be utilized for predicting the BOR of a full-scale LNG tank based on the BOR measurement data of lab-scale model tanks.

Closing Analysis of Symmetric Steel Cable-stayed Bridges and Estimation of Construction Error (대칭형 강 사장교의 폐합해석과 시공오차의 예측)

  • Lee, Min Kwon;Lee, Hae Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents the closing analysis of a symmetric steel cable-stayed bridge erected by a free cantilever method. Two independent structural systems are formed before the closing procedure of a bridge is performed, and thus the compatibility conditions for vertical displacement and rotational angle are not satisfied at the closing section without the application of proper sectional forces. Since, however, it is usually impossible to apply sectional forces at the closing section, the compatibility conditions should be satisfied by proper external forces that can be actually applicable to a bridge. Unstrained lengths of selected cables and the pull-up force of a derrick crane are adjusted to satisfy nonlinear compatibility conditions, which are solved iteratively by the Newton-Raphson method. Cable members are modeled by the elastic catenary cable elements, and towers and main girders are discretized by linear 3-D frame elements. The sensitivities of displacement with respect to the unstrained lengths of selected cables and the pull-up force of the derrick crane are evaluated by the direct differentiation of the equilibrium equation. A Monte-Carlo simulation approach is proposed to estimate expected construction errors for a given confidence level. The proposed method is applied to the second Jindo Grand Bridge to demonstrate its validity and effectiveness.

Comparison of accuracy of breeding value for cow from three methods in Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population

  • Hyo Sang Lee;Yeongkuk Kim;Doo Ho Lee;Dongwon Seo;Dong Jae Lee;Chang Hee Do;Phuong Thanh N. Dinh;Waruni Ekanayake;Kil Hwan Lee;Duhak Yoon;Seung Hwan Lee;Yang Mo Koo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.720-734
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, Korea Proven Bulls (KPN) program has been well-developed. Breeding and evaluation of cows are also an essential factor to increase earnings and genetic gain. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of cow breeding value by using three methods (pedigree index [PI], pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction [PBLUP], and genomic-BLUP [GBLUP]). The reference population (n = 16,971) was used to estimate breeding values for 481 females as a test population. The accuracy of GBLUP was 0.63, 0.66, 0.62 and 0.63 for carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back-fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS), respectively. As for the PBLUP method, accuracy of prediction was 0.43 for CWT, 0.45 for EMA, 0.43 for MS, and 0.44 for BFT. Accuracy of PI method was the lowest (0.28 to 0.29 for carcass traits). The increase by approximate 20% in accuracy of GBLUP method than other methods could be because genomic information may explain Mendelian sampling error that pedigree information cannot detect. Bias can cause reducing accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) for selected animals. Regression coefficient between true breeding value (TBV) and GBLUP EBV, PBLUP EBV, and PI EBV were 0.78, 0.625, and 0.35, respectively for CWT. This showed that genomic EBV (GEBV) is less biased than PBLUP and PI EBV in this study. In addition, number of effective chromosome segments (Me) statistic that indicates the independent loci is one of the important factors affecting the accuracy of BLUP. The correlation between Me and the accuracy of GBLUP is related to the genetic relationship between reference and test population. The correlations between Me and accuracy were -0.74 in CWT, -0.75 in EMA, -0.73 in MS, and -0.75 in BF, which were strongly negative. These results proved that the estimation of genetic ability using genomic data is the most effective, and the smaller the Me, the higher the accuracy of EBV.

A simulation study for various propensity score weighting methods in clinical problematic situations (임상에서 발생할 수 있는 문제 상황에서의 성향 점수 가중치 방법에 대한 비교 모의실험 연구)

  • Siseong Jeong;Eun Jeong Min
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.381-397
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    • 2023
  • The most representative design used in clinical trials is randomization, which is used to accurately estimate the treatment effect. However, comparison between the treatment group and the control group in an observational study without randomization is biased due to various unadjusted differences, such as characteristics between patients. Propensity score weighting is a widely used method to address these problems and to minimize bias by adjusting those confounding and assess treatment effects. Inverse probability weighting, the most popular method, assigns weights that are proportional to the inverse of the conditional probability of receiving a specific treatment assignment, given observed covariates. However, this method is often suffered by extreme propensity scores, resulting in biased estimates and excessive variance. Several alternative methods including trimming, overlap weights, and matching weights have been proposed to mitigate these issues. In this paper, we conduct a simulation study to compare performance of various propensity score weighting methods under diverse situation, such as limited overlap, misspecified propensity score, and treatment contrary to prediction. From the simulation results overlap weights and matching weights consistently outperform inverse probability weighting and trimming in terms of bias, root mean squared error and coverage probability.

Comparative Evaluation of Concrete Compressive Strength According to the Type of Apartment Building Finishing Materials Using Nondestructive Testing (비파괴검사법을 이용한 공동주택 마감재 종류에 따른 콘크리트 압축강도 비교평가)

  • Seong-Uk Hong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 2024
  • In the case of apartment building, it is difficult to conduct non-destructive testing due to the actual presence of people and the dust and noise generated during the core test, so inspections are performed each time in the common area and underground parking lot, and the tests are conducted on the finishing material rather than on the concrete surface due to low-cost orders. As the process progresses, poor inspection is inevitable. In addition, the proposed formulas for strength estimation have large fluctuations depending on the differences in test conditions and environments, and even if they show the same measured value, the deviation between each proposed formula is large, making it difficult to accurately estimate strength, making it difficult to use. Accordingly, we would like to select finishing materials mainly used in apartment complexes and compare and evaluate the compressive strength of concrete according to the type of finishing material by using non-destructive testing methods directly on the finishing materials without removing the finishing materials. The reliability evaluation results of the estimated compressive strength of concrete using the ultrasonic velocity method according to the type of finishing material are as follows. The error rate between the estimated compressive strength and compressive strength derived through the ultrasonic velocity method shows a wide range of variation, ranging from 21.83% to 58.89%. The effect of the presence or absence of finishing materials on the estimated compressive strength was found to be insignificant. Accordingly, it is necessary to select more types of finishing materials and study ultrasonic velocity methods according to the presence or absence of finishing materials, and to study estimation techniques that can increase reliability.

Vision-based Method for Estimating Cable Tension Using the Stay Cable Shape (사장재 케이블 형태를 이용하여 케이블 장력을 추정하는 영상기반 방법)

  • Jin-Soo Kim;Jae-Bong Park;Deok-Keun Lee;Dong-Uk Park;Sung-Wan Kim
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2024
  • Due to advancements in construction technology and analytical tools, an increasing number of cable-stayed bridges have been designed and constructed in recent years. A cable is a structural element that primarily transmits the main load of a cable-stayed bridge and plays the most crucial role in reflecting the overall condition of the entire bridge system. In this study, a vision-based method was applied to estimate the tension of the stay cables located at a long distance. To measure the response of a cable using a vision-based method, it is necessary to install feature points or targets on the cable. However, depending on the location of the point to be measured, there may be no feature points in the cable, and there may also be limitations in installing the target on the cable. Hence, it is necessary to find a way to measure cable response that overcomes the limitations of existing vision-based methods. This study proposes a method for measuring cable responses by utilizing the characteristics of cable shape. The proposed method involved extracting the cable shape from the acquired image and determining the center of the extracted cable shape to measure the cable response. The extracted natural frequencies of the vibration mode were obtained using the measured responses, and the tension was estimated by applying them to the vibration method. To verify the reliability of the vision-based method, cable images were obtained from the Hwatae Bridge in service under ambient vibration conditions. The reliability of the method proposed in this study was confirmed by applying it to the vibration method using a vision-based approach, resulting in estimated tensions with an error of less than 1% compared to tensions estimated using an accelerometer.

Tour-based Personalized Trip Analysis and Calibration Method for Activity-based Traffic Demand Modelling (활동기반 교통수요 모델링을 위한 투어기반 통행분석 및 보정방안)

  • Yegi Yoo;Heechan Kang;Seungmo Yoo;Taeho Oh
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.32-48
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    • 2023
  • Autonomous driving technology is shaping the future of personalized travel, encouraging personalized travel, and traffic impact could be influenced by individualized travel behavior during the transition of driving entity from human to machine. In order to evaluate traffic impact, it is necessary to estimate the total number of trips based on an understanding of individual travel characteristics. The Activity-based model(ABM), which allows for the reflection of individual travel characteristics, deals with all travel sequences of an individual. Understanding the relationship between travel and travel must be important for assessing traffic impact using ABM. However, the ABM has a limitation in the data hunger model. It is difficult to adjust in the actual demand forecasting. Therefore, we utilized a Tour-based model that can explain the relationship between travels based on household travel survey data instead. After that, vehicle registration and population data were used for correction. The result showed that, compared to the KTDB one, the traffic generation exhibited a 13% increase in total trips and approximately 9% reduction in working trips, valid within an acceptable margin of error. As a result, it can be used as a generation correction method based on Tour, which can reflect individual travel characteristics, prior to building an activity-based model to predict demand due to the introduction of autonomous vehicles in terms of road operation, which is the ultimate goal of this study.