• 제목/요약/키워드: error analysis methods

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PM10 예보 향상을 위한 민감도 분석에 의한 역모델 파라메터 추정 (Inverse Model Parameter Estimation Based on Sensitivity Analysis for Improvement of PM10 Forecasting)

  • 유숙현;구윤서;권희용
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제18권7호
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    • pp.886-894
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we conduct sensitivity analysis of parameters used for inverse modeling in order to estimate the PM10 emissions from the 16 areas in East Asia accurately. Parameters used in sensitivity analysis are R, the observational error covariance matrix, and B, a priori (background) error covariance matrix. In previous studies, it was used with the predetermined parameter empirically. Such a method, however, has difficulties in estimating an accurate emissions. Therefore, an automatically determining method for the most suitable value of R and B with an error measurement criteria and posteriori emissions accuracy is required. We determined the parameters through a sensitivity analysis, and improved the accuracy of posteriori emissions estimation. Inverse modeling methods used in the emissions estimation are pseudo inverse, NNLS (Nonnegative Least Square), and BA(Bayesian Approach). Pseudo inverse has a small error, but has negative values of emissions. In order to resolve the problem, NNLS is used. It has a unrealistic emissions, too. The problems are resolved with BA(Bayesian Approach). We showed the effectiveness and the accuracy of three methods through case studies.

ANALYSIS OF SOME PROJECTION METHODS FOR THE INCOMPRESSIBLE FLUIDS WITH MICROSTRUCTURE

  • Jiang, Yao-Lin;Yang, Yun-Bo
    • 대한수학회지
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.471-506
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    • 2018
  • In this article, some projection methods (or fractional-step methods) are proposed and analyzed for the micropolar Navier-Stokes equations (MNSE). These methods allow us to decouple the MNSE system into two sub-problems at each timestep, one is the linear and angular velocities system, the other is the pressure system. Both first-order and second-order projection methods are considered. For the classical first-order projection scheme, the stability and error estimates for the linear and angular velocities and the pressure are established rigorously. In addition, a modified first-order projection scheme which leads to some improved error estimates is also proposed and analyzed. We also present the second-order projection method which is unconditionally stable. Ample numerical experiments are performed to confirm the theoretical predictions and demonstrate the efficiency of the methods.

이산화 오차를 고려한 ZCP 추정방법과 고속 BLDC 센서리스 구동에 관한 연구 (A Study of the ZCP Estimation Methods considering Discretization Error and High Speed BLDC Sensorless Drive)

  • 서은정;손정원;선우명호;이우택
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents zero crossing point(ZCP) estimation methods considering discretization error for a high speed brushless DC(BLDC) motor drive. The ZCP is estimated by detecting the change of back-EMF polarity for the BLDC sensorless drive, and the discretization error exist on the estimated ZCP. The discretization error of the ZCP is a cause of the delay of a commutation timing of current and increment of a current ripple factor. Besides a delay of a ZCP estimation brings on the limitation of a speed range for the BLDC sensorless drive. The compensation method based on the error analysis with probability theory for reducing the effects of the discretization error of the ZCP is proposed. Also a ZCP estimation method according to the Back-EMF patterns is proposed to widen the speed range for the BLDC sensorless drive. The proposed methods are verified by the experiment.

다중열원모델의 열모드기반 열변위오차 예측 (Investigation of the Thermal Mode-based Thermal Error Prediction for the Multi-heat Sources Model)

  • 한준안;김규하;이선규
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제30권7호
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    • pp.754-761
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    • 2013
  • Thermal displacement is an important issue in machine tool systems. During the last several decades, thermal error compensation technology has significantly reduced thermal distortion error; this success has been attributed to the development of a precise, robust thermal error model. A major advantage of using the thermal error model is instant compensation for the control variables during the modeling process. However, successful application of thermal error modeling requires correct determination of the temperature sensor placement. In this paper, a procedure for predicting thermal-mode-based thermal error is introduced. Based on this thermal analysis, temperature sensors were positioned for multiple heat-source models. The performance of the sensors based on thermal-mode error analysis, was compared with conventional methods through simulation and experiments, for the case of a slide table in a transient state. Our results show that for predicting thermal error the proposed thermal model is more accurate than the conventional model.

A Study of Methodology to Examine Organizational Root Causes through the Retrospect Error Analysis of Railroad Accident Cases

  • Ra, Doo Wan;Cha, Woo Chang
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2015
  • Objective: This study proposes a systematic process to present the analysis methods and solutions of organizational root causes to human errors on the railroad. Background: In fact, organizational root cause such as organizational culture is an important factor in the safety concerns on human errors in the nuclear power plant, railroad and aircraft. Method: The proposed process is as follows: 1) define analysis boundary 2) select human error taxonomy 3) perform accident analysis 4) draw root causes with FGI 5) review root causes analysis with survey 6) chart analysis of root causes, and 7) propose alternatives and solutions. Results: As a result, root causes of the organizations like railroad and nuclear power plant came from the educational problems, violations, payoff system, safety culture and so forth. Conclusion: The proposed process does predict potential railroad accident through retrospect error analysis by building new human error taxonomies and problem solution. Application: This study would contribute to examination of the relationship between human error-based accidents and organizational root causes.

A Study on the Performance of Causal Links between Error Causes: Application to Railroad Accident Cases

  • Kim, Dong San;Yoon, Wan Chul
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.535-540
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    • 2013
  • Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of causal links between various error causes in human error analysis. Background: As finding root causes of human error in safety-critical systems is often a cognitively demanding and time-consuming task, it is particularly necessary to develop a method for improving both the quality and efficiency of the task. Although a few methods such as CREAM have suggested causal linking between error causes as a means to enhance the quality and efficiency of human error analysis, no published research to date has evaluated the performance of the causal links. Method: The performance of the CREAM links between error causes were evaluated with 80 railway accident investigation reports from the UK. From each report, errorneous actions of operators were derived, and for each error, candidate causes were found by following the predefined links. Two measures, coverage and selectivity, were used to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the links, respectively. Results: On average, 96% of error causes actually included in the accident reports were found by following the causal links, and among the total of 121 possible error causes, the number of error causes to be examined further was reduced to one-tenth on average. As an additional result of this work, frequent error causes and frequently used links are provided. Conclusion: This result implies that the predefined causal links between error causes can significantly reduce the time and effort required to find the multiple levels of error causes and their causal relations without losing the quality of the results. Application: The CREAM links can be applied to human error analysis in any industry with minor modifications.

Hierarchical Bayes Estimators of the Error Variance in Balanced Fixed-Effects Two-Way ANOVA Models

  • Kim, Byung-Hwee;Dong, Kyung-Hwa
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.487-500
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    • 1999
  • We propose a class of hierarchical Bayes estimators of the error variance under the relative squared error loss in balanced fixed-effects two-way analysis of variance models. Also we provide analytic expressions for the risk improvement of the hierarchical Bayes estimators over multiples of the error sum of squares. Using these expressions we identify a subclass of the hierarchical Bayes estimators each member of which dominates the best multiple of the error sum of squares which is known to be minimax. Numerical values of the percentage risk improvement are given in some special cases.

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A classification of electrical component failures and their human error types in South Korean NPPs during last 10 years

  • Cho, Won Chul;Ahn, Tae Ho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제51권3호
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    • pp.709-718
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    • 2019
  • The international nuclear industry has undergone a lot of changes since the Fukushima, Chernobyl and TMI nuclear power plant accidents. However, there are still large and small component deficiencies at nuclear power plants in the world. There are many causes of electrical equipment defects. There are also factors that cause component failures due to human errors. This paper analyzed the root causes of failure and types of human error in 300 cases of electrical component failures. We analyzed the operating experience of electrical components by methods of root causes in K-HPES (Korean-version of Human Performance Enhancement System) and by methods of human error types in HuRAM+ (Human error-Related event root cause Analysis Method Plus). As a result of analysis, the most electrical component failures appeared as circuit breakers and emergency generators. The major causes of failure showed deterioration and contact failure of electrical components by human error of operations management. The causes of direct failure were due to aged components. Types of human error affecting the causes of electrical equipment failure are as follows. The human error type group I showed that errors of commission (EOC) were 97%, the human error type group II showed that slip/lapse errors were 74%, and the human error type group III showed that latent errors were 95%. This paper is meaningful in that we have approached the causes of electrical equipment failures from a comprehensive human error perspective and found a countermeasure against the root cause. This study will help human performance enhancement in nuclear power plants. However, this paper has done a lot of research on improving human performance in the maintenance field rather than in the design and construction stages. In the future, continuous research on types of human error and prevention measures in the design and construction sector will be required.

Performance Analysis of Low-Order Surface Methods for Compact Network RTK: Case Study

  • Song, Junesol;Park, Byungwoon;Kee, Changdon
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2015
  • Compact Network Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) is a method that combines compact RTK and network RTK, and it can effectively reduce the time and spatial de-correlation errors. A network RTK user receives multiple correction information generated from reference stations that constitute a network, calculates correction information that is appropriate for one's own position through a proper combination method, and uses the information for the estimation of the position. This combination method is classified depending on the method for modeling the GPS error elements included in correction information, and the user position accuracy is affected by the accuracy of this modeling. Among the GPS error elements included in correction information, tropospheric delay is generally eliminated using a tropospheric model, and a combination method is then applied. In the case of a tropospheric model, the estimation accuracy varies depending on the meteorological condition, and thus eliminating the tropospheric delay of correction information using a tropospheric model is limited to a certain extent. In this study, correction information modeling accuracy performances were compared focusing on the Low-Order Surface Model (LSM), which models the GPS error elements included in correction information using a low-order surface, and a modified LSM method that considers tropospheric delay characteristics depending on altitude. Both of the two methods model GPS error elements in relation to altitude, but the second method reflects the characteristics of actual tropospheric delay depending on altitude. In this study, the final residual errors of user measurements were compared and analyzed using the correction information generated by the various methods mentioned above. For the performance comparison and analysis, various GPS actual measurement data were collected. The results indicated that the modified LSM method that considers actual tropospheric characteristics showed improved performance in terms of user measurement residual error and position domain residual error.

A novel qEEG measure of teamwork for human error analysis: An EEG hyperscanning study

  • Cha, Kab-Mun;Lee, Hyun-Chul
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제51권3호
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    • pp.683-691
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a novel method to quantify the neural synchronization between subjects in the collaborative process through electroencephalogram (EEG) hyperscanning. We hypothesized that the neural synchronization in EEGs will increase when the communication of the operators is smooth and the teamwork is better. We quantified the EEG signal for multiple subjects using a representative EEG quantification method, and studied the changes in brain activity occurring during collaboration. The proposed method quantifies neural synchronization between subjects through bispectral analysis. We found that phase synchronization between EEGs of multi subjects increased significantly during the periods of collaborative work. Traditional methods for a human error analysis used a retrospective analysis, and most of them were analyzed for an unspecified majority. However, the proposed method is able to perform the real-time monitoring of human error and can directly analyze and evaluate specific groups.