• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.4A no.3
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• pp.159-166
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• 2004

Forecasting prices in electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk. We utilize the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) method to forecast the electricity prices in two regions of New York： New York City and Central New York State. We contrast the one-day forecasts of the GARCH against techniques such as dynamic regression, transfer function models, and exponential smoothing. We also examine the effect on our forecasting of omitting some of the extreme values in the electricity prices. We show that accounting for the extreme values and the heteroskedactic variance in the electricity price time-series can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting. Additionally, we document the higher volatility in New York City electricity prices. Differences in volatility between regions are important in the pricing of electricity options and for analyzing market performance.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.5A no.3
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• pp.300-302
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• 2005

We employ a new technique to account for extreme values when using the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) methodology to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in New York City.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.5A no.4
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• pp.331-338
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• 2005

In this paper, an improved maintenance scheduling approach suitable for the competitive environment is proposed by taking account of profits and costs of generation companies and the formulated combinatorial optimization problem is solved by using Reactive Tabu search (RTS). In competitive power markets, electricity prices are determined by the balance between demand and supply through electric power exchanges or by bilateral contracts. Therefore, in decision makings, it is essential for system operation planners and market participants to take the volatility of electricity price into consideration. In the proposed maintenance scheduling approach, firstly, electricity prices over the targeted period are forecasted based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and also a newly proposed aggregated bidding curve. Secondary, the maintenance scheduling is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem with a novel objective function by which the most profitable maintenance schedule would be attained. As an objective function, Opportunity Loss by Maintenance (OLM) is adopted to maximize the profit of generation companies (GENCOS). Thirdly, the combinatorial optimization maintenance scheduling problem is solved by using Reactive Tabu Search in the light of the objective functions and forecasted electricity prices. Finally, the proposed maintenance scheduling is applied to a practical test power system to verify the advantages and practicability of the proposed method.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.83-85
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• 2008

The authors develop and compare the performance of short-term forecasting models on electricity market prices in Korea. The models are based on time-series methods. The outcome shows that the EGARCH model has the best results in the out-of-sample forecasts.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.4
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• pp.700-706
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• 2010

Carbon costs, either in the form of a carbon tax or through permit prices in an emissions trading scheme, would ultimately be reflected in higher electricity prices. This price "pass-through" is very critical to the effective design of new policies to curb the amount of carbon emissions. This paper sets out in a structured way the factors that determine price pass-through and how carbon costs would impact on the electricity market and the existing coal-fired power plants. It is shown that pass-through can vary drastically if the underlying dispatch potential of generators varies significantly across alternative emissions reduction scenarios. It can also vary depending on the availability of competing cleaner forms of generation. Pass-through as a measure of business performance is therefore hard to generalize across different circumstances and should be interpreted carefully.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.1-8
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• 2021

We estimated the price range of electricity transactions under the prosumer system, considering the spread of renewable energy and the prospect of introducing a surplus power trading system between power consumers in Korea. The range (min/max) of power transaction prices was estimated by prosumers and consumers who could purchase electricity from utilities if needed. It is assumed that utilities purchased electricity from prosumers and consumers under a Time-of-Use (TOU) rate, trading at a monthly price. The range of available transaction prices according to the amount of power purchased from utilities and the amount of transaction power was also estimated. The price range that can be traded is expected to vary depending on variables such as the TOU rate, purchased and surplus power, levelized cost of electricity, etc.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.751-774
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• 2008

In this paper, we examine the institutional prices differences in the electricity and natural gas industries using unbalanced panel data from 1999 to 2001. The changing market structures following deregulation in both markets allow us to examine the institutional prices differences by ownership type, market structure and merger activities. Estimating the reduced form, after controlling both intrinsic characteristic (marginal costs) and external factors (demand), allows us to identify the extent to which specific factors are correlated with the price. Furthermore it allows us to identify systematic institutional price differences in both electricity and natural gas markets. Our estimation results suggest that the private firms in electricity markets are associated with higher prices than public firms after controlling for demand and cost. We further find that dual-product firms in the natural gas industry and the electricity industry are associated with lower rates than single product firms. These results provide a weak evidence of economies of scope in the dual-product firms. Our results finally suggest that merger activities in natural gas markets are associated with higher rates.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.8
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• pp.341-350
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• 2006

This paper presents a new methodology to draw the components of locational marginal price (LMP) in electricity market. Recently, the changing environments surrounding electricity industries resulted in the unbundled services provided by electricity market players, which may require the new pricing mechanisms based on the LMP. The changed pricing mechanisms will provide the price signals of time and location to the market participants. Most of the existing studies of LMP are based on the Lagrangian multipliers as shadow prices to evaluate the equivalent values of constraints or factors for security, reliability and quality. However, the shadow prices cannot provide enough information for components of LMP. In this paper, therefore, we proposed a new approach that LMP is divided into three components. To do this, we first present the method for shadow prices calculation and then break down LMP into a variety of parts corresponding to the concerned factors. The proposed approach is applied to 5-bus and modified IEEE 14-bus sample system in order to verify its validity.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.285-299
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• 2016

Although South Korea experienced a rolling blackout in 2011, the possibility of a blackout in South Korea continues to increase due to rapid electrification. This study examines the problems of energy taxation and price distortions as possible reasons for the rapid electrification in South Korea, which is occurring at a faster rate than in Japan, Europe, and other developed countries. Further, we suggest new energy taxation and price systems designed to normalize electricity prices. In order to do so, we consider two possible scenarios: the first imposes a tax on bituminous coal for electricity generation and the second levies a tax to provide compensation for the potential damages from a nuclear accident. Based on these scenarios, we analyze the effects of a new energy system on electricity price and demand. The results show that a new energy system could guarantee the power generation costs and balance the relative prices between energy sources, and could also help prevent rapid electrification. Therefore, the suggested new energy system is expected to be utilized as a basis for energy policy to decrease the speed of electrification, thus preventing a blackout, and to induce the rational consumption of energy in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.37-47
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• 2008

This study investigated (1) consumer perception about the level of electricity price, (2) the amount of household electricity consumption, and (3) consumer perception on electricity pricing system reform. For data collection, a national wide survey was conducted between November 22 and December 15, 2006. Excluding 233 cases, because of incomplete responses, data from 1767 households were analyzed. The major findings were as follows; More than 50% of the respondents consumed between 100-300kWh of electricity per month. Household size and income were significantly associated with electricity consumption. Approximately 50% of respondents perceived that electricity was being overcharged. Approximately 50% of the respondents positively evaluated the effects of the graduation pricing system. Households consuming more than 300kWh of electricity per month preferred a flat unit price. Based on these results, we suggest the implications to reforming the electricity pricing system.