• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제4A권3호
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• pp.159-166
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• 2004

Forecasting prices in electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk. We utilize the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) method to forecast the electricity prices in two regions of New York： New York City and Central New York State. We contrast the one-day forecasts of the GARCH against techniques such as dynamic regression, transfer function models, and exponential smoothing. We also examine the effect on our forecasting of omitting some of the extreme values in the electricity prices. We show that accounting for the extreme values and the heteroskedactic variance in the electricity price time-series can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting. Additionally, we document the higher volatility in New York City electricity prices. Differences in volatility between regions are important in the pricing of electricity options and for analyzing market performance.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제5A권3호
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• pp.300-302
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• 2005

We employ a new technique to account for extreme values when using the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) methodology to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in New York City.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제5A권4호
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• pp.331-338
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• 2005

In this paper, an improved maintenance scheduling approach suitable for the competitive environment is proposed by taking account of profits and costs of generation companies and the formulated combinatorial optimization problem is solved by using Reactive Tabu search (RTS). In competitive power markets, electricity prices are determined by the balance between demand and supply through electric power exchanges or by bilateral contracts. Therefore, in decision makings, it is essential for system operation planners and market participants to take the volatility of electricity price into consideration. In the proposed maintenance scheduling approach, firstly, electricity prices over the targeted period are forecasted based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and also a newly proposed aggregated bidding curve. Secondary, the maintenance scheduling is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem with a novel objective function by which the most profitable maintenance schedule would be attained. As an objective function, Opportunity Loss by Maintenance (OLM) is adopted to maximize the profit of generation companies (GENCOS). Thirdly, the combinatorial optimization maintenance scheduling problem is solved by using Reactive Tabu Search in the light of the objective functions and forecasted electricity prices. Finally, the proposed maintenance scheduling is applied to a practical test power system to verify the advantages and practicability of the proposed method.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.83-85
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• 2008

The authors develop and compare the performance of short-term forecasting models on electricity market prices in Korea. The models are based on time-series methods. The outcome shows that the EGARCH model has the best results in the out-of-sample forecasts.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제59권4호
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• pp.700-706
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• 2010

Carbon costs, either in the form of a carbon tax or through permit prices in an emissions trading scheme, would ultimately be reflected in higher electricity prices. This price "pass-through" is very critical to the effective design of new policies to curb the amount of carbon emissions. This paper sets out in a structured way the factors that determine price pass-through and how carbon costs would impact on the electricity market and the existing coal-fired power plants. It is shown that pass-through can vary drastically if the underlying dispatch potential of generators varies significantly across alternative emissions reduction scenarios. It can also vary depending on the availability of competing cleaner forms of generation. Pass-through as a measure of business performance is therefore hard to generalize across different circumstances and should be interpreted carefully.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2021

We estimated the price range of electricity transactions under the prosumer system, considering the spread of renewable energy and the prospect of introducing a surplus power trading system between power consumers in Korea. The range (min/max) of power transaction prices was estimated by prosumers and consumers who could purchase electricity from utilities if needed. It is assumed that utilities purchased electricity from prosumers and consumers under a Time-of-Use (TOU) rate, trading at a monthly price. The range of available transaction prices according to the amount of power purchased from utilities and the amount of transaction power was also estimated. The price range that can be traded is expected to vary depending on variables such as the TOU rate, purchased and surplus power, levelized cost of electricity, etc.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.751-774
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• 2008

본 논문은 미국의 전력산업과 천연가스산업이 본격적인 구조변화를 시작한 1999년부터 2001년까지의 자료를 사용하여 제도적인 변화가 시장가격에 미친 영향을 분석한다. 이를 위해 가격에 영향을 미치는 비용과 수요를 제어한 축약형태(reduced forms) 모형의 회귀분석을 사용하여, 본 논문은 제도적인 요소 중에서 구체적으로 어떠한 요소가 가격결정과 긴밀히 연결되어 있는지를 추정한다. 분석결과에 의하면 투자자 소유의 기업의 전력가격이 공기업에 비해서 보다 높은 것으로 추정되었다. 더불어 전기와 천연가스 2개의 상품을 공급하는 기업은 1개의 재화를 제공하는 기업에 비해서 두 재화를 보다 저렴한 가격으로 공급하는 규모의 경제를 가지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 천연가스 기업간의 합병은 합병이 일어나지 않은 지역에 비해서 가스요금의 수준이 보다 높은 것으로 나타났다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권8호
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• pp.341-350
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• 2006

This paper presents a new methodology to draw the components of locational marginal price (LMP) in electricity market. Recently, the changing environments surrounding electricity industries resulted in the unbundled services provided by electricity market players, which may require the new pricing mechanisms based on the LMP. The changed pricing mechanisms will provide the price signals of time and location to the market participants. Most of the existing studies of LMP are based on the Lagrangian multipliers as shadow prices to evaluate the equivalent values of constraints or factors for security, reliability and quality. However, the shadow prices cannot provide enough information for components of LMP. In this paper, therefore, we proposed a new approach that LMP is divided into three components. To do this, we first present the method for shadow prices calculation and then break down LMP into a variety of parts corresponding to the concerned factors. The proposed approach is applied to 5-bus and modified IEEE 14-bus sample system in order to verify its validity.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.285-299
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• 2016

Although South Korea experienced a rolling blackout in 2011, the possibility of a blackout in South Korea continues to increase due to rapid electrification. This study examines the problems of energy taxation and price distortions as possible reasons for the rapid electrification in South Korea, which is occurring at a faster rate than in Japan, Europe, and other developed countries. Further, we suggest new energy taxation and price systems designed to normalize electricity prices. In order to do so, we consider two possible scenarios: the first imposes a tax on bituminous coal for electricity generation and the second levies a tax to provide compensation for the potential damages from a nuclear accident. Based on these scenarios, we analyze the effects of a new energy system on electricity price and demand. The results show that a new energy system could guarantee the power generation costs and balance the relative prices between energy sources, and could also help prevent rapid electrification. Therefore, the suggested new energy system is expected to be utilized as a basis for energy policy to decrease the speed of electrification, thus preventing a blackout, and to induce the rational consumption of energy in South Korea.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.37-47
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• 2008

This study investigated (1) consumer perception about the level of electricity price, (2) the amount of household electricity consumption, and (3) consumer perception on electricity pricing system reform. For data collection, a national wide survey was conducted between November 22 and December 15, 2006. Excluding 233 cases, because of incomplete responses, data from 1767 households were analyzed. The major findings were as follows; More than 50% of the respondents consumed between 100-300kWh of electricity per month. Household size and income were significantly associated with electricity consumption. Approximately 50% of respondents perceived that electricity was being overcharged. Approximately 50% of the respondents positively evaluated the effects of the graduation pricing system. Households consuming more than 300kWh of electricity per month preferred a flat unit price. Based on these results, we suggest the implications to reforming the electricity pricing system.