• Title/Summary/Keyword: electric power demand forecasting

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A Study on the Application Effects of HTS Power Cable (고온초전도 전력케이블 적용효과 검토)

  • Seong, Gi-Cheol;Jo, Jeon-Uk;Kim, Hae-Jong;Gwon, Yeong-Gil;Choe, Sang-Bong;Ryu, Gang-Sik;Kim, Bong-Tae;Yu, In-Geun
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.32-36
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    • 2000
  • In this study, we performed the long-term expansion planning for the conceptual design of HTS power cable in Seoul area. In Korea, underground power cable has been required gradually with increasing demand of electric power transmission density and low loss characteristics in the comparison with a conventional power cables, so we assumed that the HTS power cable is applied between the downtown area and the outskirts of the city for the large power transmission capacity. This paper is to show the effects of HTS power cables in Seoul based on the power system analysis.

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Long-term Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Network (퍼지 신경회로망을 이용한 장기 전력수요 예측)

  • Park, S.H.;Choi, J.G.;Park, J.G.;Kim, K.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1995.07b
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    • pp.491-493
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, the method of long-term load forecasting using a fuzzy neural network of which input is a fuzzy membership function value of a input variable like as GNP which is considered to affect demand of load. The proposed method was applicated in Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). The comparison with Error Back-Propagation Neural Network has been shown.

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Econometric Study on Forecasting Demand Response in Smart Grid (스마트그리드 수요반응 추정을 위한 계량경제학적 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dong Joo;Park, Sunju
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2012
  • Cournot model is one of representative models among many game theoretic approaches available for analyzing competitive market models. Recent years have witnessed various kinds of attempts to model competitive electricity markets using the Cournot model. Cournot model is appropriate for oligopoly market which is one characteristic of electric power industry requiring huge amount of capital investment. When we use Cournot model for the application to electricity market, it is prerequisite to assume the downward sloping demand curve in the right direction. Generators in oligopoly market could try to maximize their profit by exercising the market power like physical or economic withholding. However advanced electricity markets also have demand side bidding which makes it possible for the demand to respond to the high market price by reducing their consumption. Considering this kind of demand reaction, Generators couldn't abuse their market power. Instead, they try to find out an equilibrium point which is optimal for both sides, generators and demand. This paper suggest a quantitative analysis between market variables based on econometrics for estimating demand responses in smart grid environment.

Forecasting of Heat Demand in Winter Using Linear Regresson Models for Korea District Heating Corporation (한국지역난방공사의 겨울철 열수요 예측을 위한 선형회귀모형 개발)

  • Baek, Jong-Kwan;Han, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1488-1494
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we propose an algorithm using linear regression model that forecasts the demand of heated water in winter. To supply heated water to apartments, stores and office buildings, Korea District Heating Corp.(KDHC) operates boilers including electric power generators. In order to operate facilities generating heated water economically, it is essential to forecast daily demand of heated water with accuracy. Analysis of history data of Kangnam Branch of KDHC in 2006 and 2007 reveals that heated water supply on previous day as well as temperature are the most important factors to forecast the daily demand of heated water. When calculated by the proposed regression model, mean absolute percentage error for the demand of heated water in winter of the year 2006 through 2009 does not exceed 3.87%.

Design For System Algorithm for Implement Machine Socialization Environment (DDNS 기반 가정 에너지 관리 시스템 설계)

  • Lee, Chun-Hui;Kim, Wung-Jun;Jung, Hoe-Kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.629-631
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the actual demand for electricity usage to out of demand forecasting demand appears to be based on the power of Government to address the insecurity is there are a lot of efforts on a more efficient energy management. In 2011, the first major outage, blackout since the current rate of no more than 10% of our power plants, such as power supply and demand crisis is being repeated. In addition, energy management systems, the demand for care and social areas are being expanded. In this paper, Building power supply and wired/wireless router and to optimize the DDNS (Dynamic Domain Name Service) for remote control and monitoring device for electric consumption Presonal Energy Management System offers a way to implement it. In the future, remote control and access the user's can minimize the settings for additional research is needed.

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Forecasting daily peak load by time series model with temperature and special days effect (기온과 특수일 효과를 고려하여 시계열 모형을 활용한 일별 최대 전력 수요 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Jin Young;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.161-171
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    • 2019
  • Varied methods have been researched continuously because the past as the daily maximum electricity demand expectation has been a crucial task in the nation's electrical supply and demand. Forecasting the daily peak electricity demand accurately can prepare the daily operating program about the generating unit, and contribute the reduction of the consumption of the unnecessary energy source through efficient operating facilities. This method also has the advantage that can prepare anticipatively in the reserve margin reduced problem due to the power consumption superabundant by heating and air conditioning that can estimate the daily peak load. This paper researched a model that can forecast the next day's daily peak load when considering the influence of temperature and weekday, weekend, and holidays in the Seasonal ARIMA, TBATS, Seasonal Reg-ARIMA, and NNETAR model. The results of the forecasting performance test on the model of this paper for a Seasonal Reg-ARIMA model and NNETAR model that can consider the day of the week, and temperature showed better forecasting performance than a model that cannot consider these factors. The forecasting performance of the NNETAR model that utilized the artificial neural network was most outstanding.

Characteristics of Electric-Power Use in Residential Building by Family Composition and Their Income Level (거주자 구성유형 및 소득수준에 따른 주거용 건물 내 전력소비성향)

  • Seo, Hyun-Cheol;Hong, Won-Hwa;Nam, Gyeong-Mok
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we draws tendency of the electricity consumption in residential buildings according to inhabitants Composition types and the level of incomes. it is necessary to reduce energy cost and keep energy security through the electricity demand forecasting and management technology. Progressive social change such as increases of single household, the aging of society, increases in the income level will replace the existing residential electricity demand pattern. However, Only with conventional methods that using only the energy consumption per-unit area are based on Energy final consumption data can not respond to those social and environmental change. To develop electricity demand estimation model that can cope flexibly to changes in the social and environmental, In this paper researches propensity of electricity consumption according to the type of residents configuration, the level of income. First, we typed form of inhabitants in residential that existed in Korea. after that we calculated hourly electricity consumption for each type through National Time-Use Survey performed at the National Statistical Office with considering overlapping behavior. Household appliances and retention standards according to income level is also considered.

Prediction for Energy Demand Using 1D-CNN and Bidirectional LSTM in Internet of Energy (에너지인터넷에서 1D-CNN과 양방향 LSTM을 이용한 에너지 수요예측)

  • Jung, Ho Cheul;Sun, Young Ghyu;Lee, Donggu;Kim, Soo Hyun;Hwang, Yu Min;Sim, Issac;Oh, Sang Keun;Song, Seung-Ho;Kim, Jin Young
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.134-142
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    • 2019
  • As the development of internet of energy (IoE) technologies and spread of various electronic devices have diversified patterns of energy consumption, the reliability of demand prediction has decreased, causing problems in optimization of power generation and stabilization of power supply. In this study, we propose a deep learning method, 1-Dimention-Convolution and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (1D-ConvBLSTM), that combines a convolution neural network (CNN) and a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(BLSTM) for highly reliable demand forecasting by effectively extracting the energy consumption pattern. In experimental results, the demand is predicted with the proposed deep learning method for various number of learning iterations and feature maps, and it is verified that the test data is predicted with a small number of iterations.

Study on Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) simulation for NOx dispersion around combined heat and power plant (열병합발전소 질소산화물 확산에 관한 전산유체역학 simulation 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Park, Young-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.62-71
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    • 2015
  • In order to deal with the globally increasing electric power demand and reduce $CO_2$ emission, complex thermoelectric power plants are being constructed in densely populated downtown areas. As the environmental regulations are continuously strengthened, various facilities like low NOx burner and SCR are being installed to reduce NOx emission. This study is applied using the TMS emission of $NO_2$ from combined heat and power plant located in Goyang-si Gyeonggi-do. Applying data to the computational fluid dynamics(CFD), and compared with the actual measurement results. It is judged that even though there might be differences between actual measurements and CFD results due to the instant changes of wind direction and wind speed according to measurement time during measurement period, modeling results and actual measurement results showed similar concentration at most forecasting areas and therefore, the forecasting concentration could be deducted which is close to actual measurement by calculating the contribution concentration considering the surrounding concentration in the future.

Novel System Modeling and Design by using Eclectic Vehicle Charging Infrastructure based on Data-centric Analysis (전기차 충전인프라 및 데이터 연계 분석에 의한 시스템 모델링 및 실증 설계)

  • Kim, Hangsub;Park, Homin;Jeong, Taikyeong;Lee, Woongjae
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we analyzed the relationship between charging operation system and electricity charges connected with charging infrastructure among data of many demonstration projects focused on electric vehicles recently. At this point in time, due to the rapid increase in demand for the electric charging infrastructure that will take place in the future, we can prepare for an upcoming era in the sense of forecasting the demand value. At the same time, demonstrating and modeling optimized system modeling centering on sites is a prerequisite. The modeling based on the existing small - scale simulation and the design of the operating system are based on the data linkage analysis. In this paper, we implemented a new optimized system modeling and introduced it as a standard format to analyze time - dependent time - divisional data for each vehicle and user in each point and node. In order to verify the efficiency of the optimization based on the data linkage analysis for the actual implemented electric car charging infrastructure and operation system.