• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic decision-making

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Deciding the Optimal Shutdown Time Incorporating the Accident Forecasting Model (원자력 발전소 사고 예측 모형과 병합한 최적 운행중지 결정 모형)

  • Yang, Hee Joong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.

Development and Validation of a Career Decision-Making Scale for Scientifically Gifted Undergraduates (과학영재 대학생을 위한 진로결정 요인 척도개발 및 타탕화)

  • Yang, Tae-Youn;Han, Ki-Soon;Park, In-Ho
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.927-943
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    • 2011
  • What are the critical factors in deciding future career to the gifted and talented students? The present study started with this question, and was to develop a career decision-making scale for scientifically gifted undergraduates. For this, literatures related to the scientifically gifted/talent and scientists' career decision-making were reviewed and examined in depth. Based on the review of the related literature, the developed scale of career decision-making was comprised of 26 items in 6 factors, such as individual aptitude & self-realization, economic aspect, work & leisure, familial influence, parents/teachers' recommendation, and experience of science activity during the school days. For the preliminary exploratory factor analysis, 153 undergraduate students who were majoring in natural sciences and engineer participated in the study. For the confirmatory factor analysis, 264 undergraduates who were awarded the presidential scholarships and 93 undergraduates who completed a university-affiliated gifted education center participated. The results of the study are as follows. The fit of measurement model was found to be $x^{2}$=645.157 (df=279, p=.00), TLI=.924, CFI= .935, RMSEA=.061, indicating most of fit indexes were acceptable. Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ in each sub-factor was quite high, .82 for individual aptitude & self-realization, .94 for economic aspect, .84 for work and leisure, .88 for familial influence, .79 for patents/ teachers' recommendation, and .79 for experience of science activity during the school days. The results of the study were discussed whether the developed scale could be used as a valid and reliable tool for measuring career decision-making factors of the scientifically gifted undergraduates in our country.

Real Option Decision Tree Models for R&D Project Investment (R&D 프로젝트 투자 의사결정을 위한 실물옵션 의사결정나무 모델)

  • Choi, Gyung-Hyun;Cho, Dae-Myeong;Joung, Young-Ki
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.408-419
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    • 2011
  • R&D is a foundation for new business chance and productivity improvement leading to enormous expense and a long-term multi-step process. During the R&D process, decision-makers are confused due to the various future uncertainties that influence economic and technical success of the R&D projects. For these reasons, several decision-making models for R&D project investment have been suggested; they are based on traditional methods such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) and Real Option Analysis (ROA) or some fusion forms of the traditional methods. However, almost of the models have constraints in practical use owing to limits on application, procedural complexity and incomplete reflection of the uncertainties. In this study, to make the constraints minimized, we propose a new model named Real Option Decision Tree Model which is a conceptual combination form of ROA and DTA. With this model, it is possible for the decision-makers to simulate the project value applying the uncertainties onto the decision making nodes.

An MCDM-Based Integrated Economic Analysis Model for the New Telecommunication Services (다기준 의사결정기법을 활용한 신규통신 서비스의 총체적 사업성 분석)

  • Chang, Haeng-Gorn;Choi, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Yong-Sun;Kim, Soung-Hie
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.3-17
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    • 1992
  • In this study, an integrated economic analysis model to analyze the new telecommunication services is developed. This model considers both the technological and managerial aspests altogether with respect to the profit and public benefit criteria. To encounter the various dynamically changing environments and evaluation criteria, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM)techniques are employed. The model consists of three stages; The first stage surveys related formal or informal data, generates analysis alternatives, and performs acceptabillty test in view of marketing. The second stage generates executive alternatives for each acceptable analysis alternative and checks the executionability in view of telecommunication technologies. The third stage performs the final integrated economic analysis including the profitability analysis. This study offers a basis for the future development of decision support system or expert system on the economic analysis of the new telecommunication services.

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A Study on the Economic Life Cycle Decision Method of Aircraft Direct Support Equipment (항공기 지원 장비 경제수명 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Si Yeon;Choi, Bong-Wan;Oh, Hyun-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.193-201
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    • 2014
  • This study attempts to utilize the economic efficiency analysis results focused on the break-even point as an indicator for the decision making of commanders and staff. We suggested a method of determining economic life by utilizing logistics information system and commercial program Minitab with a focus on the equipment's operational environment and performance data, whereas previously the equipment's retirement period was simply determined by the current equipment prices and sustainable period.

A study on the analys of foodservice consumption for concept making in foodservice enterprise (외식창업 컨셉결정을 위한 외식소비환경 분석)

  • 진양호;김미자
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.291-305
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is analysis of foodservice consumption for making decision. Changes of foodservice consump have also played an important role in improving restaurant sales. These days millions eat away from home at restaurant when nessary dispite economic cycles, many people prefer to eat at restaurants to be something or necessary. The method of this study is focused on changes foodservice consumption environment and dicision making of concept.

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A Study on the Information Supporting System for R&D Decision Making using Technology Valuation Model (R&D 경제적 가치평가를 통한 의사결정 정보지원 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Sun-Hi
    • Journal of Information Management
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.107-128
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is developing a information support system for R&D decision making to maximize economic results of the R&D. This system is composed of studying the model of work flow for R&D decision making, analyzing a technology information, connecting with the databases from KISTI and others, and valuing R&D technology on line. Especially in the case of technology valuation, this system is combined with the valuation model which supports knowledge information for helping more objective estimation.

Innovative value chain creation research according to AI jobs

  • SEO, Dae-Sung;SEO, Byeong-Min
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: It suggests that making a policy and strategies in a way of AI and its impact of commercialization on economic efficiency, social custom ethics. Research design, data, and methodology: The paper has analyzed the data based on the proposed model when derived as AI vs. FI job, etc. It is very different for each professional evaluation, which is artificial intelligence or robot job. One concept case was selected as a substitute job, with a relatively low level of occupation ability, such as direct labors, easily replaced. By the induction data has resulted in modeling. Results: The paper suggests that AI at high level become something how to make real decisions on ethical value modeling. Through physical simulation with the deduction data, it can be tuned to design and control what has not been solved, from human senses to climate. Conclusion: For the exploiting of new AI decision-making jobs in markets, the deduction data is possible to prove to AI's Decision-making that the percentage who can easily have different leadership as is different for each person. what is generated by some information silos may be applied to occupation societies. The empirical results indicate the deduction data that if AI determines ethical decisions (VC) for that modifications, it may replace future jobs.

An Integrated Environment and Economic Evaluation Model for Building Reconstruction and Remodeling Projects (재건축과 리모델링 사업의 환경성${\cdot}$경제성 통합평가모델)

  • Lee Ju-Heon;Park Chan-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.327-330
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    • 2002
  • Recently, the environmental sustainability has showed up one of the important considerations in the construction industry. However, the effective evaluation method for the decision-making on either reconstruction or remodeling of a project has not been developed so far. This paper presents an integrated evaluation model considering both environment and economic factors of a building project for which the decision making on either remodeling or reconstruction is needed. In order to develop the model, the characteristics of both types of projects were investigated and analyzed through the related literature review, and then appropriate evaluation criteria and analysis methodology to be used in the model were developed.

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The Water Resource Management Framework in New Zealand: A Case Study of Moving towards a Less Adversarial Approach

  • Davie, Tim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.82-90
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    • 2010
  • New Zealand appears to be a water rich country; however there are considerable water allocation issues. Mostly these revolve around balancing environmental concerns with economic development. The largest economic sector is agriculture which currently utilizes around 80% of the allocated water and has considerable potential to increase in size. The resource management framework that New Zealand has developed over the past twenty years revolves around local decision-making and sustainable management principles. As the demands for water have grown there has been growing concern that this framework is inadequate to deal with the issues of declining water quantity and quality through agricultural intensification. In Canterbury, the region with the highest water allocation and demand, a new approach is being trialed. The Canterbury Water Management Strategy (CWMS) recognizes the need for: ecological restoration for past damage; infrastructure development for increased irrigation; and the need to link infrastructure with more efficient use of water by both existing and new water users. These three elements are recognized as having equal value. The CWMS builds on the local decision-making concept but is deliberately aimed at consensus building in order to remove expensive and adversarial resource management hearings. It is practical enough to recognize that economic development is needed but that it need not proceed in conflict with the environment, but rather can be a means towards environmental improvement.

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