• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.261-263
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• 2008

Determining the most likelihood earthquake scenario in one region is very important for performing an earthquake-resistant design. The most likelihood earthquake scenario can be selected by performing deaggregation, who classifies earthquakes that occur ground motion exceeding a specific acceleration as each distance and each earthquake magnitude. If earthquakes are classified, the most likelihood earthquake scenario can be selected. Earthquake hazard analysis method that have to be performed before deaggregation follows the method that Ministry of Construction & Transportation presented. As a result of performing deaggregation at longitude 127.35 and latitude 34.7, presentable seismic ground motion scenarios can be selected at each recurrence period.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.191-200
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• 2005

Shaking table tests of the seismic behavior of a steel frame structure model were performed. The purpose of these tests was to estimate the effects of a near-fault ground motion and a scenario earthquake based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for nuclear power plant structures. Three representative kinds of earthquake ground motions were used for the input motions: the design earthquake ground motion for the Korean nuclear power plants, the scenario earthquakes for Korean nuclear power plant sites, and the near-fault earthquake record from the Chi-Chi earthquake. The probability-based scenario earthquakes were developed for the Korean nuclear power plant sites using the PSHA data. A 4-story steel frame structure was fabricated to perform the tests. Test results showed that the high frequency ground motions of the scenario earthquake did not damage the structure at the nuclear power plant site; however, the ground motions had a serious effect on the equipment installed on the high floors of the building. This shows that the design earthquake is not conservative enough to demonstrate the actual danger to safety related nuclear power plant equipment.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.301-309
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• 2019

A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.59-65
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• 2020

The empirical Green's function method is applied to the foreshock and the mainshock of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake to simulate strong ground motions of the mainshock and scenario earthquake at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, respectively. To identify the applicability of the method in advance, the mainshock is simulated, assuming the foreshock as the empirical Green's function. As a result of the simulation, the overall shape, the amplitude of PGA, and the duration and response spectra of the simulated seismic waveforms are similar with those of the observed seismic waveforms. Based on this result, a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of Gyeongju earthquake with a moment magnitude 6.5 is simulated, assuming that the mainshock serves as the empirical Green's function. As a result, the amplitude of PGA and the duration of simulated seismic waveforms are significantly increased and extended, and the spectral amplitude of the low frequency band is relatively increased compared with that of the high frequency band. If the empirical Green's function method is applied to several recent well-recorded moderate earthquakes, the simulated seismic waveforms can be used as not only input data for developing ground motion prediction equations, but also input data for creating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.131-146
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• 2020

Evaluation of earthquake impacts in settlements with a high risk of earthquake occurrence is important for the determination of site-specific dynamic soil parameters and earthquake-resistant structural planning. In this study, dynamic soil properties of Karliova (Bingol) city center, located near to the intersection point of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the East Anatolian Fault Zone and therefore having a high earthquake risk, were investigated by one-dimensional equivalent linear site response analysis. From ground response analyses, peak ground acceleration, predominant site period, 0.2-sec and 1-sec spectral accelerations and soil amplification maps of the study area were obtained for both near-field and far-field earthquake effects. The average acceleration spectrum obtained from analysis, for a near-field earthquake scenario, was found to exceed the design spectra of the Turkish Earthquake Code and Eurocode 8. Yet, the average acceleration spectrum was found to remain below the respective design spectra of the two codes for the far-field earthquake scenario. According to both near- and far-field earthquake scenarios in the study area, the low-rise buildings with low modal vibration durations are expected to be exposed to high spectral acceleration values and high-rise buildings with high modal vibration durations will be exposed to lower spectral accelerations. While high amplification ratios are observed in the north of the study area for the near-distance earthquake scenario, high amplification ratios are observed in the south of the study area for the long-distance earthquake scenario.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제8권6호통권40호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2004

원전 구조물 및 기기의 내진설계를 위한 설계지진의 설정에는 결정론적 방법이나 확률론적 방법이 사용되어 왔다. 최근에는 확률론적 지진재해도 분석이 일반화 되면서 확률론적으로 설계지진 및 평가용 지진의 설정 방법이 합리적인 방법으로서 인식되어 많이 사용되고 있다. 우리나라의 경우 원전부지에 대한 확률론적 지진재해도 분석이 확률론적 지진위험도 평가의 일환으로 대부분 완료되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 확률론적 지진재해도의 재분해를 통하여 확률론적 시나리오 지진을 산정할 수 있는 기법을 확립하고 국내 원전 부지에 대한 확률론적 지진재해도 분석 결과를 이용하여 계산 예를 수행하였다. 이 기법을 사용하면 내진설계 및 내진안전성 평가에 활용할 수 있는 확률론적 시나리오 지진을 설정할 수 있어 매우 유용한 것으로 판단되며 합리적인 시나리오 지진의 산정을 위해서는 합리적인 지진구역도 및 감쇄식의 개발이 필요하다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.391-400
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• 2016

For earthquake loss estimation of building structures in Gangnam-Gu district in Seoul, three scenario earthquakes were selected by comparison of the response spectra of these scenario earthquakes with the design spectrum in Korean Building Code (KBC 2009), and then direct losses of the building structures in the Gangnam-Gu district under each scenario earthquake are estimated. The following conclusions are drawn from the results of damage and loss in the second scenario earthquake, which has a magnitude = 6.5 and epicentral distance =15 km: (1) The ratio of building stocks undergoing the extensive and complete damage level is 40.0% of the total. (2) The amount of direct economic losses appears approximately 19 trillion won, which is 1.2% of the national GDP of Korea. (3) About 25% of high-rise (over 10-story) RC building wall structures, were inflicted with the damage exceeding moderate level, when compared to 60% of low-rise building structures. (4) From the economical view point, the main loss, approximately 50%, was caused by the damage in the high-rise RC wall building structures.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.233-240
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• 2021

The stochastic method is applied to simulate strong ground motions at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, creating an earthquake scenario based on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake. Input parameters are established according to what has been revealed so far for the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake, while the ratio of differences in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions is assumed to be an adjustment factor. The calculations confirm the applicability and reproducibility of strong ground motion simulations based on the relatively small bias in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions. Based on this result, strong ground motions by a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake with moment magnitude 6.5 are simulated, assuming that the ratios of its fault length to width are 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1. The results are similar to those of the empirical Green's function method. Although actual site response factors of seismic stations should be supplemented later, the simulated strong ground motions can be used as input data for developing ground motion prediction equations and input data for calculating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권7호
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• pp.2529-2539
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• 2022

Stochastic and an empirical Green's function (EGF) methods are preliminarily applied to simulate strong ground motions (SGMs) at seismic stations within nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in South Korea by an assumed large earthquake with M_W6.5 (scenario earthquake) on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake with M_W5.5 (mainshock). In the stochastic method, a ratio of spectral amplitudes of observed and simulated waveforms for the mainshock is assumed to be an adjustment factor. In the EGF method, SGMs by the mainshock are simulated assuming SGMs by the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake with M_W5.0 (foreshock) as the EGF. To simulate SGMs by the scenario earthquake, a ratio of fault length to width is assumed to be 2:1 in the stochastic method, and SGMs by the mainshock are assumed to be EGF in the EGF method. The results are similar based on a bias of the simulated response spectra by the two methods, and the simulated response spectra by the two methods exceeded commonly standard design response spectra anchored at 0.3 g of NPP sites slightly at a frequency band above 4 Hz, but considerable attention to interpretation is required since it is an indirect comparison.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.