• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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An Attempt of Estimation of Annual Fog Frequency over Gyeongsangbuk-do of Korea Using Weather Generator MM5

  • Kim, Do-Yong;Oh, Jai-Ho;Kim, Jin-Young;Sen, Pumendranath;Kim, Tae-Kook
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.88-94
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    • 2009
  • In this study an attempt has been made to predict the annual foggy days over Gyeongsangbuk-do of Korea, using the regional mesoscale model (MM5). The annual meteorological conditions are simulated, and the annual and seasonal foggy days are predicted from the simulated results based on the seasonal and spatial information of the observed meteorological characteristics for fog occurrence such as wind speed, relative humidity, and temperature. Most of observed inland fog over Gyeongsangbuk-do occurs in autumn under the meteorological conditions such as a cairn, a high temperature range (above $10^{\circ}C$), and a high relative humidity (above 85%). The predicted results show the various foggy days, about 10${\sim}$60 days, depending on the season and the site locations. The predicted annual foggy days at inland sites are about 30${\sim}$60 days, but at coastal sites, about 10${\sim}$20 days. Also, a higher frequency of fog occurrence at inland sites is shown in autumn (about 60% of the annual foggy days). Otherwise, a higher frequency of fog occurrence at coastal sites is shown in summer (about 60% of the annual foggy days), unlike the inland. These annual foggy days and their seasonal variations agree reasonably well with the observed values. It can be concluded that it is possible to predict the occurrence of annual or seasonal foggy days by MM5.

Inducing stress-strain relationship for element simulation of cyclic triaxial test on unsaturated soil (불포화토에 대한 반복삼축압축시험의 요소시뮬레이션을 위한 응력-변형율 관계의 수립)

  • Lee, Chung-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.5654-5663
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    • 2015
  • In the unsaturated soil, suction, the negative pore water pressure leads to increases of the yield stress and the plastic shear stiffness of the soil skeleton due to the growth in interparticle stress. Therefore, in this study, the stress-strain relationship based on cyclic elasto-plastic constitutive model extended for unsaturated soil considering the 1st and the 2nd yield functions was induced in order to account for these effects of suction under the dynamic loading condition such as the earthquake. Through the program code considering this relationship and the routine of the cyclic loading with the reversion of loading direction, the numerical simulation of the cyclic triaxial test under the unsaturated condition would be possible. It is expected that the results of this study possibly contribute to the accuracy improvement on the prediction of unsaturated soil behavior under the dynamic loading condition.

Improvements in the Simulation of Sea Surface Wind Over the Complex Coastal Area-II: Data Assimilation Using LAPS (복잡 해안지역 해상풍 모의의 정확도 개선-II: LAPS를 사용한 자료동화)

  • Bae, Joo-Hyun;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Jeong, Ju-Hee;Kweon, Ji-Hye;Seo, Jang-Won;Kim, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.745-757
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    • 2006
  • We focus on the improvement of accuracy of sea surface wind over complex coastal area doling the warm season. Local Analysis Prediction System (LAPS) was used to improve the initial values in Mesoscale Meteorological model (MM5). During the clear summer days with weak wind speed, sea surface wind simulated with LAPS was compared with the case without LAPS. The results of modeling with LAPS has a good agreement mesoscale circulation such as mountain and valley winds on land and in case of modeling without LAPS, wind speed overestimated over the sea in the daytime. And the results of simulation with LAPS indicated similar wind speed values to observational data over the sea under influence of data assimilation using BUOY, QuikSCAT, and AMEBAS. The present study suggests that MM5 modelling with LAPS showed more improved results than that of without LAPS to simulate sea surface wind over the complex coastal area.

Prediction of the Natural Frequency of a Soil-Pile-Structure System during an earthquake (지진하중을 받는 말뚝 시스템의 고유 진동수 예측)

  • Yang, Eui-Kyu;Kwon, Seon-Yong;Choi, Jung-In;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.09a
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    • pp.976-984
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    • 2009
  • This study proposes a simple method that uses a simple mass-spring model to predict the natural frequency of a soil-pile-structure system in sandy soil. This model includes a pair of matrixes, i.e., a mass matrix and a stiffness matrix. The mass matrix is comprised of the masses of the pile and superstructure, and the stiffness matrix is comprised of the stiffness of the pile and the spring coefficients between the pile and soil. The key issue in the evaluation of the natural frequency of a soil-pile system is the determination of the spring coefficient between the pile and soil. To determine the reasonable spring coefficient, subgrade reaction modulus, nonlinear p-y curves and elastic modulus of the soil were utilized. The location of the spring was also varied with consideration of the infinite depth of the pile. The natural frequencies calculated by using the mass-spring model were compared with those obtained from 1-g shaking table model pile tests. The comparison showed that the calculated natural frequencies match well with the results of the 1-g shaking table tests within the range of computational error when the three springs, whose coefficients were calculated using Reese's(1974) subgrade reaction modulus and Yang's (2009) dynamic p-y backbone curves, were located above the infinite depth of the pile.

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Estimation of Ultimate Bearing Capacity of SCP and GCP Reinforced Clay for Laboratory Load Test Data (SCP 및 GCP 개량 점성토지반의 실내재하시험에 대한 극한지지력 산정 방법 개발)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Han, Jin-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2018
  • In this study, 34 laboratory load test data were collected, and analyzed to propose the equations for predicting ultimate bearing capacity of sand compaction pile (SCP) and gravel compaction pile (GCP) reinforced clay. The collected data were compared with the ultimate bearing capacity estimated by existing theoretical equations, and the prediction accuracy of the existing theoretical equations was identified. Also, multiple regression analysis was performed to predict the ultimate bearing capacity, and the most efficient number and type of input variables were selected through error evaluation by leave-one-out cross validation. Finally, the multiple regression equations for estimating the ultimate bearing capacity of laboratory load test for SCP and GCP were proposed, and their performance was evaluated.

Reliability Design Analysis for Underwater Buriend PBA Based on PoF (고장물리 기반 수중 매설형 PBA에 대한 신뢰성 설계 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Lee, Ki-Won;Yoon, Hong-Woo;Lee, Seung-Jin;Heo, Jun-Ki;Kwon, Hyeong-Ahn
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: PBA buried in underwater requires high reliability because of its mission critical characteristic and harsh operational environment during its life cycle. Therefore, various reliability improvement activities are necessary. The defect on PBA manufacturing process have been studied, as a result, many activities and standards have been presented. However, there are less studies regarding failure pattern on physical features based on design. In this paper, we studied a possible failure patten based on physical features that is related with manufacturing process of PBA. And reliability improvement design based on PoF (Physical of Failure) were intruduced in this paper. Methods: A reliability prediction simulation were performed on the components A and B of the H system using Sherlock Software which is a PoF commercial tool from DFR solution. Solder fatigue and PTH fatigue analysis based on thermal cycling profiles and random vibration was analyzed on three earthquake response spectrum. Result: It was validated that life time and reliability improvement design through solder fatigue and PTH fatigue analysis in case of component. For compoenet B, random vibration fatigue was additionally analyzed and validated reliability for earthquakes profile. Conclusion: In design stage prior to manufacturing, PoF can be analyzed, and it is possible to make a reliability improvement/validated design using design data. This study can be applied in every design step and contribute to make more stable development product.

Effect of earthquake induced-pounding on the response of four adjacent buildings in series

  • Elwardany, Hytham;Mosa, Beshoy;Khedr, M. Diaa Eldin;Seleemah, Ayman
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2022
  • Structural pounding due to strong seismic excitations can result in severe damage or even collapse of colliding structures. Many researchers focused on studying the mutual pounding between two adjacent structures while very few researches were concerned with the pounding of a series of structures. This paper aims to study the pounding effect on a series of four buildings having different natural frequencies. The paper also investigates the effect of different arrangements of the four buildings on their pounding response. For this, a mathematical model was constructed using Matlab code where, pounding was modeled using a contact force-based approach. A Non-Linear viscoelastic (Hertzdamp) contact element was used and activated only during the approach period of collision. The mathematical model was validated by comparing its prediction versus experimental results on three adjacent buildings. Then the model was used to study the pounding between four adjacent structures arranged in different sequences according to their natural frequencies. The results revealed that increasing the gap distance generally led to decrease the peak responses of the towers. Such response is somehow different from that predicted earlier by the authors for the case of three adjacent buildings. Moreover, the arrangement of towers has a significant effect on their pounding response. Significant difference between the natural frequencies of adjacent structures increases the pounding forces especially when the more flexible buildings are located at the outer edge of the series. The study points out the need for further researches on buildings in series to gain a better understanding of such complex phenomena.

Seismic vulnerability macrozonation map of SMRFs located in Tehran via reliability framework

  • Amini, Ali;Kia, Mehdi;Bayat, Mahmoud
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.78 no.3
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    • pp.351-368
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    • 2021
  • This paper, by applying a reliability-based framework, develops seismic vulnerability macrozonation maps for Tehran, the capital and one of the most earthquake-vulnerable city of Iran. Seismic performance assessment of 3-, 4- and 5-story steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), designed according to ASCE/SEI 41-17 and Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (2800 Standard), is investigated in terms of overall maximum inter-story drift ratio (MIDR) and unit repair cost ratio which is hereafter known as "damage ratio". To this end, Tehran city is first meshed into a network of 66 points to numerically locate low- to mid-rise SMRFs. Active faults around Tehran are next modeled explicitly. Two different combination of faults, based on available seismological data, are then developed to explore the impact of choosing a proper seismic scenario. In addition, soil effect is exclusively addressed. After building analytical models, reliability methods in combination with structure-specific probabilistic models are applied to predict demand and damage ratio of structures in a cost-effective paradigm. Due to capability of proposed methodology incorporating both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties explicitly, this framework which is centered on the regional demand and damage ratio estimation via structure-specific characteristics can efficiently pave the way for decision makers to find the most vulnerable area in a regional scale. This technical basis can also be adapted to any other structures which the demand and/or damage ratio prediction models are developed.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Concrete Bridges Considering the Lap Splices of T-type Column (T형 교각의 겹침이음을 고려한 콘크리트 교량의 지진취약도 분석)

  • An, Hyojoon;Cho, Baiksoon;Park, Ju-Hyun;Lee, Jong-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.287-295
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    • 2023
  • The collapse of bridges due to earthquakes results in many casualties and property damages. Thus, accurate prediction and preparation are required for the behavior of bridges during earthquakes. In particular, columns play an important role in the seismic behavior of bridges. The risk of collapse due to an earthquake increases when there is a problem of the insufficient lap splice in the column. In this study, to analyze the characteristics of the lap splice in the column, a numerical model was defined for the insufficient lap-spliced columns and verified using experimental data. The developed column model was applied to a commonly used RC slab bridge. Nonlinear static analysis for the column was performed to evaluate the change in the performance of the column according to the lap-spliced length. In addition, this study assessed the effect of the lap-spliced length on the seismic fragility analysis.

Site response analysis using true coupled constitutive models for liquefaction triggering

  • Cristhian C. Mendoza-Bolanos;Andres Salas-Montoya;Oscar H. Moreno-Torres;Arturo I. Villegas-Andrade
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 2023
  • This study focused on nonlinear effective stress site response analysis using two coupled constitutive models, that is, the DM model (Dafalias and Manzari 2004), which incorporated a simple plasticity sand model accounting for fabric change effects, and the PMDY03 model (Khosravifar et al. 2018), that is, a 3D model for earthquake-induced liquefaction triggering and postliquefaction response. A detailed parametric study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of nonlinear site response analysis and porewater pressure (PWP) generation through a true coupled formulation for assessing the initiation of liquefaction at ground level. The coupled models demonstrated accurate prediction of liquefaction triggering, which was in line with established empirical liquefaction triggering relations in published databases. Several limitations were identified in the evaluation of liquefaction using the cyclic stress method, despite its widespread implementation for calculating liquefaction triggering. Variations in shear stiffness, represented by changes in shear wave velocity (Vs1), exerted the most significant influence on site response. The study further indicated that substantial differences in response spectra between nonlinear total stress and nonlinear effective stress analyses primarily occurred when liquefaction was triggered or on the verge of being triggered, as shown by excess PWP ratios approaching unity. These differences diminished when liquefaction occurred towards the later stages of intense shaking. The soil response was predominantly influenced by the higher stiffness values present prior to liquefaction. A key contribution of this study was to validate the criteria used to assess the triggering of level-ground liquefaction using true coupled effective-stress constitutive models, while also confirming the reliability of numerical approximations including the PDMY03 and DM models. These models effectively captured the principal characteristics of liquefaction observed in field tests and laboratory experiments.