• 제목/요약/키워드: dynamic prediction method

검색결과 549건 처리시간 0.024초

기후 및 계절정보를 이용한 딥러닝 기반의 장기간 태양광 발전량 예측 기법 (Deep Learning Based Prediction Method of Long-term Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Meteorological and Seasonal Information)

  • 이동훈;김관호
    • 한국전자거래학회지
    • /
    • 제24권1호
    • /
    • pp.1-16
    • /
    • 2019
  • 최근 온실가스의 증가로 인한 기후변화 대응의 필요성과 전력수요의 증가로 인해 태양광발전량(PV) 예측의 중요성은 급격히 증가하고 있다. 특히, 태양광 발전량을 예측하는 것은 합리적인 전력 가격결정과 시스템 안정성 및 전력 생산 균형과 같은 문제를 효과적으로 해결하기 위해 전력생산 계획을 합리적으로 계획하는데 도움이 될 수 있다. 그러나 일사량, 운량, 온도 등과 같은 기후정보 및 계절 변화로 인한 태양광 발전량이 무작위적으로 변화하기 때문에 정확한 태양광 발전량을 예측하는 것은 도전적인 일이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 딥러닝 모델을 통해 기후 및 계절정보를 이용하여 학습함으로써 장기간 태양광 발전량 예측 성능을 향상시킬 수 있는 기법을 제안한다. 본 연구에서는 대표적인 시계열 방법 중 하나인 계절형 ARIMA 모델과 하나의 은닉층으로 구성되어 있는 ANN 기반의 모델, 하나 이상의 은닉층으로 구성되어 있는 DNN 기반의 모델과의 비교를 통해 본 연구에서 제시한 모델의 성능을 평가한다. 실데이터를 통한 실험 결과, 딥러닝 기반의 태양광 발전량 예측 기법이 가장 우수한 성능을 보였으며, 이는 본 연구에서 목표로 한 태양광 발전량 예측 성능 향상에 긍정적인 영향을 나타내었음을 보여준다.

각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구 (A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas)

  • 이진수;장용채;김용걸
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국항해항만학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회논문집
    • /
    • pp.197-203
    • /
    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also in cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : A a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, in was showed that Terzaghi & Peck > Chin > Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable , time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering News. Modified Engineering News. Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program ) analysis for relation, respectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)}$ $Q_{u(EOID)}$ = 0.971 $t_{0.1}$, 0.968 $t_{0.1}$, 1.192 $t_{0.1}$, 0.88 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$

  • PDF

초기 처짐을 갖는 Spherical Shell의 동적 특성에 관한 연구 (I) -기하학적 형상에 따른 동적 특성- (Dynamic Characteristics Analysis of Spherical Shell with Initial Deflection(I))

  • 조진구
    • 한국농공학회지
    • /
    • 제40권3호
    • /
    • pp.113-121
    • /
    • 1998
  • The widespread use of thin shell structures has created a need for a systematic method of analysis which can adequately account for arbitrary geometric form. Therefore, the stress analysis of thin shell has been one of the more challenging areas of structural mechanics. The analysis of axisymmetric spherical shell is almost an every day occurrence in many industrial applications. A reliable and accurate finite element analysis procedure for such structures was needed. In general, the shell structures designed according to quasi-static analysis may fail under conditions of dynamic loading. For a more realistic prediction on the load carrying capacity of these shell, in addition to the dynamic effect, consideration should also include other factors such as nonlinearities in both material and geometry since these factors, in different manner, may also affect the magnitude of this capacity. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the dynamic characteristics of spherical Shell. For these purpose, the spherical shell subjected to uniformly distributed step load was analyzed for its large displacements elasto-viscoplastic dynamic response. The results for the dynamic characteristics of spherical shell in the cases under various conditions of base-radius/central height(a/H) and thickness/shell radius(t/R) were summarized as follows: 1. The dynamic characteristics with a/H, 1) As the a/H increases, the amplitude of displacement increased. 2) The values of displacement Dynamic Magnification Factor (DMF) range from 2.9 to 6.3 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell range from 1.8 to 2.6. 3) As the a/H increases, the values of DMF in the crown of shell is decreased rapidly but the values of DMF in mid-point of shell is increased gradually. 4) The values of DMF of hoop-stresses range from 3.6 to 6.8 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell range from 2.3 to 2.6, the values of DMF of stress were larger than that of displacement. 2. The dynamic characteristics with t/R, 1) With the decrease of thickness of shell decreses, the amplitude of the displacement and the period increased. 2) The values of DMF of the displacement were range from 2.8 to 3.6 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell were range from 2.1 to 2.2.

  • PDF

낙하해석을 통한 보드 레벨 플립칩에서의 솔더볼 충격수명에 관한 연구 (Prediction of Impact Life Time in Solder Balls of the Board Level Flip Chips by Drop Simulations)

  • 장총민;김성걸
    • 한국생산제조학회지
    • /
    • 제23권3호
    • /
    • pp.237-242
    • /
    • 2014
  • Recently much research are has been done into the compositions of lead-free solders. As a result, there has been a rapid increase in the number of new compositions. In the past, the properties of these new compositions were determined and verified through drop-impact tests. However, these drop tests were expensive and it took a long time to obtain a result. The main goal of this study was to establish an analytical method capable of predicting the impact life-time of a new solder composition for board-level flip chips though the application of drop simulations using LS-DYNA. Based on the reaction load obtain with LS-DYNA, the drop-impact fracture cycles were predicted. The study was performed using a Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu solder (305 composition). To verify the reliability of the proposed analytical method, the results of the drop-impact tests and life-time analysis were compared, and were found to be in good agreement. Thus, the new analytical method was shown to be very useful and effective.

연약지반 최종침하량의 설계 적용성에 관한 사례연구 (Cast study on the Design Application of Final Settlement in Soft Ground)

  • 김영수;박시범;김경태;김창현;김현구;육일동;김흥곤
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국지반공학회 2005년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.948-955
    • /
    • 2005
  • In this case of study, Incheon International Airport 2nd phase site preparation 1st section estimated final settlement to improve soft ground. Final settlement is very important in preloading method. Recently, Hyperbolic method, Hoshino method and Asaoka method are used mostly in prediction of final settlement and this paper, Comparing a result of Final settlement, used to Artificial Neural Network. The structure of Dynamic Artificial Neural Network which predicted Final settlement, has application to Young_Jong Island other site, If new investigation data will be added. Also, It is expected to save measuring_system cost in soft ground.

  • PDF

Laboratory considerations about frictional force on pipe surface when slurry machine is used

  • Khazaei Saeid;Shimada Hideki;Kawai Takashi;Yotsumoto Jyunichi;Sato Iwao;Matsui Kikuo
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of the international symposium on the fusion technology
    • /
    • pp.214-220
    • /
    • 2003
  • Pipe jacking is a name for a method to excavate a tunnel by pushing pipe into the ground from an especial pit. Size of tunnels in this method is different from under 900mm (microtunneling) to more than 3,000mm. Method of excavation is also different from hand digging to use of any kind of tunnel boring machines such as slurry and earth pressure balance (EPB) machines. Slurry pipe jacking was firmly established as a special method for the nondisruptive construction of the underground tunnels in urban area. During the pipe jacking and microtunneling process, the jacking load is an important parameter, controlling the pipe wall thickness, need to and location of intermediate jacking station, selection of jacking frame and lubrication requirements. The main component of the jacking load is due to frictional resistance. In this paper the skin friction between pipe surface and surrounding condition also lubricant quality based on a few fundamental tests, were considered. During this study unconfined compressive strength test, dynamic friction measurement test and direct shear box test were raised for one of the largest diameter slurry pipe jacking project in Fujisawa city in Japan. It could be concluded that in slurry pipe jacking, prediction of frictional forces are mainly dependent on successful lubrication, its quality and lubricant strength parameters. Conclusions from this study can be used for the same experiences.

  • PDF

An equivalent linear SDOF system for prediction of nonlinear displacement demands of non-ductile reinforced concrete buildings with shear walls

  • Saman Yaghmaei-Sabegh;Shabnam Neekmanesh;Nelson Lam;Anita Amirsardari;Nasser Taghizadieh
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제85권5호
    • /
    • pp.655-664
    • /
    • 2023
  • Reinforced concrete (RC) shear wall structures are one of the most widely used structural systems to resist seismic loading all around the world. Although there have been several efforts to provide conceptually simple procedures to reasonably assess the seismic demands of structures over recent decades, it seems that lesser effort has been put on a number of structural forms such as RC shear wall structures. Therefore, this study aims to represent a simple linear response spectrum-based method which can acceptably predict the nonlinear displacements of a non-ductile RC shear wall structure subjected to an individual ground motion record. An effective period and an equivalent damping ratio are introduced as the dynamic characteristics of an equivalent linear SDOF system relevant to the main structure. By applying the fundamental mode participation factor of the original MDOF structure to the linear spectral response of the equivalent SDOF system, an acceptable estimation of the nonlinear displacement response is obtained. Subsequently, the accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated by comparison with another approximate method which is based on linear response spectrum. Results show that the proposed method has better estimations for maximum nonlinear responses and is more utilizable and applicable than the other one.

Quadratic Volterra 모델을 이용한 자유지지 라이저의 동적 응답 시계열 예측 (Time Series Prediction of Dynamic Response of a Free-standing Riser using Quadratic Volterra Model)

  • 김유일
    • 대한조선학회논문집
    • /
    • 제51권4호
    • /
    • pp.274-282
    • /
    • 2014
  • Time series of the dynamic response of a slender marine structure was predicted using quadratic Volterra series. The wave-structure interaction system was identified using the NARX(Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input) technique, and the network parameters were determined through the supervised training with the prepared datasets. The dataset used for the network training was obtained by carrying out the nonlinear finite element analysis on the freely standing riser under random ocean waves of white noise. The nonlinearities involved in the analysis were both large deformation of the structure under consideration and the quadratic term of relative velocity between the water particle and structure in Morison formula. The linear and quadratic frequency response functions of the given system were extracted using the multi-tone harmonic probing method and the time series of response of the structure was predicted using the quadratic Volterra series. In order to check the applicability of the method, the response of structure under the realistic ocean wave environment with given significant wave height and modal period was predicted and compared with the nonlinear time domain simulation results. It turned out that the predicted time series of the response of structure with quadratic Volterra series successfully captures the slowly varying response with reasonably good accuracy. It is expected that the method can be used in predicting the response of the slender offshore structure exposed to the Morison type load without relying on the computationally expensive time domain analysis, especially for the screening purpose.

부정류 흐름에서 상수관망 수질해석을 위한 동역학적 모형의 개발 (Development of a Dynamic Model for Water Quality Simulation during Unsteady Flow in Water Distribution Networks)

  • 최두용;조원철;김도환;배철호
    • 상하수도학회지
    • /
    • 제26권5호
    • /
    • pp.609-617
    • /
    • 2012
  • A dynamic water quality model is presented in order to simulate water quality under slowly varying flow conditions over time. To improve numerical accuracy, the proposed model uses a lumped system approach instead of extended period simulation, unlike the other available models. This approach can achieve computational efficiency by assuming liquid and pipe walls to be rigid, unlike the method of characteristics, which has been successfully implemented in rapidly varying flows. The discrete volume method is applied to resolve the advection and reaction terms of the transport equation for water quality constituents in pipes. Numerical applications are implemented to the pipe network examples under steady and unsteady conditions as well as hydraulic and water quality simulations. The numerical results are compared with EPANET2, which is a widely used simulation model for a water distribution system. The model results are in good agreement with EPANET2 for steady-state simulation. However, the hydraulic simulation results under unsteady flows differ from those of EPANET2, which causes a deviation in water quality prediction. The proposed model is expected to be a component of an integrated operation model for a water distribution system if it is combined with a computational model for rapidly varying flows to estimate leakage, pipe roughness, and intensive water quality.

실선 예항시험을 통한 예인선의 소요마력 산출에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Necessary Thrust of Tugs through the Ship's Towing Test)

  • 정창현;남택근;최혁진
    • 해양환경안전학회지
    • /
    • 제20권4호
    • /
    • pp.405-411
    • /
    • 2014
  • 사고선박의 2차적인 피해를 줄이기 위해서는 사고선박을 안전한 곳으로 이동시키기 위한 예인선의 소요마력 산출이 요구되며, 길이 93 m 여객선형 대상선박에 대한 실선실험을 통하여 소요마력 산출에 대한 이론적인 계산식의 유효성을 검증하였다. 실선실험 결과는 이론계산 결과와 비교해 볼 때 상당히 일치되어 예선의 소요마력 산정을 위해 사용하기에 충분하다고 판단되며, 정적저항에서 공기저항, 마찰저항, 잉여저항과 더불어 프로펠러 고착저항이 상대적으로 큰 값으로 평가되었다. 피예인선은 예인과정에서 좌우 측면으로 $30^{\circ}$정도까지 스윙운동 및 요우잉이 발생하였으며, 이로 인한 동적저항이 큰 값으로 평가되었다. 추후 안전율에 대한 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단되며, 저항의 정확한 예측을 통하여 안전율을 최소화함으로써 경제적인 예인선의 사용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.