• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic prediction method

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Deep Learning Based Prediction Method of Long-term Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Meteorological and Seasonal Information (기후 및 계절정보를 이용한 딥러닝 기반의 장기간 태양광 발전량 예측 기법)

  • Lee, Donghun;Kim, Kwanho
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2019
  • Recently, since responding to meteorological changes depending on increasing greenhouse gas and electricity demand, the importance prediction of photovoltaic power (PV) is rapidly increasing. In particular, the prediction of PV power generation may help to determine a reasonable price of electricity, and solve the problem addressed such as a system stability and electricity production balance. However, since the dynamic changes of meteorological values such as solar radiation, cloudiness, and temperature, and seasonal changes, the accurate long-term PV power prediction is significantly challenging. Therefore, in this paper, we propose PV power prediction model based on deep learning that can be improved the PV power prediction performance by learning to use meteorological and seasonal information. We evaluate the performances using the proposed model compared to seasonal ARIMA (S-ARIMA) model, which is one of the typical time series methods, and ANN model, which is one hidden layer. As the experiment results using real-world dataset, the proposed model shows the best performance. It means that the proposed model shows positive impact on improving the PV power forecast performance.

A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas (각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구)

  • 이진수;장용채;김용걸
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2002.03a
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also in cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : A a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, in was showed that Terzaghi & Peck > Chin > Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable , time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering News. Modified Engineering News. Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program ) analysis for relation, respectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)}$ $Q_{u(EOID)}$ = 0.971 $t_{0.1}$, 0.968 $t_{0.1}$, 1.192 $t_{0.1}$, 0.88 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$

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Dynamic Characteristics Analysis of Spherical Shell with Initial Deflection(I) (초기 처짐을 갖는 Spherical Shell의 동적 특성에 관한 연구 (I) -기하학적 형상에 따른 동적 특성-)

  • 조진구
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 1998
  • The widespread use of thin shell structures has created a need for a systematic method of analysis which can adequately account for arbitrary geometric form. Therefore, the stress analysis of thin shell has been one of the more challenging areas of structural mechanics. The analysis of axisymmetric spherical shell is almost an every day occurrence in many industrial applications. A reliable and accurate finite element analysis procedure for such structures was needed. In general, the shell structures designed according to quasi-static analysis may fail under conditions of dynamic loading. For a more realistic prediction on the load carrying capacity of these shell, in addition to the dynamic effect, consideration should also include other factors such as nonlinearities in both material and geometry since these factors, in different manner, may also affect the magnitude of this capacity. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the dynamic characteristics of spherical Shell. For these purpose, the spherical shell subjected to uniformly distributed step load was analyzed for its large displacements elasto-viscoplastic dynamic response. The results for the dynamic characteristics of spherical shell in the cases under various conditions of base-radius/central height(a/H) and thickness/shell radius(t/R) were summarized as follows: 1. The dynamic characteristics with a/H, 1) As the a/H increases, the amplitude of displacement increased. 2) The values of displacement Dynamic Magnification Factor (DMF) range from 2.9 to 6.3 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell range from 1.8 to 2.6. 3) As the a/H increases, the values of DMF in the crown of shell is decreased rapidly but the values of DMF in mid-point of shell is increased gradually. 4) The values of DMF of hoop-stresses range from 3.6 to 6.8 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell range from 2.3 to 2.6, the values of DMF of stress were larger than that of displacement. 2. The dynamic characteristics with t/R, 1) With the decrease of thickness of shell decreses, the amplitude of the displacement and the period increased. 2) The values of DMF of the displacement were range from 2.8 to 3.6 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell were range from 2.1 to 2.2.

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Prediction of Impact Life Time in Solder Balls of the Board Level Flip Chips by Drop Simulations (낙하해석을 통한 보드 레벨 플립칩에서의 솔더볼 충격수명에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Chong Min;Kim, Seong Keol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.237-242
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    • 2014
  • Recently much research are has been done into the compositions of lead-free solders. As a result, there has been a rapid increase in the number of new compositions. In the past, the properties of these new compositions were determined and verified through drop-impact tests. However, these drop tests were expensive and it took a long time to obtain a result. The main goal of this study was to establish an analytical method capable of predicting the impact life-time of a new solder composition for board-level flip chips though the application of drop simulations using LS-DYNA. Based on the reaction load obtain with LS-DYNA, the drop-impact fracture cycles were predicted. The study was performed using a Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu solder (305 composition). To verify the reliability of the proposed analytical method, the results of the drop-impact tests and life-time analysis were compared, and were found to be in good agreement. Thus, the new analytical method was shown to be very useful and effective.

Cast study on the Design Application of Final Settlement in Soft Ground (연약지반 최종침하량의 설계 적용성에 관한 사례연구)

  • Kim, Young-Su;Park, See-Boum;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Kim, Hyun-Gu;Yook, Il-Dong;Kim, Hung-Gon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2005.03a
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    • pp.948-955
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    • 2005
  • In this case of study, Incheon International Airport 2nd phase site preparation 1st section estimated final settlement to improve soft ground. Final settlement is very important in preloading method. Recently, Hyperbolic method, Hoshino method and Asaoka method are used mostly in prediction of final settlement and this paper, Comparing a result of Final settlement, used to Artificial Neural Network. The structure of Dynamic Artificial Neural Network which predicted Final settlement, has application to Young_Jong Island other site, If new investigation data will be added. Also, It is expected to save measuring_system cost in soft ground.

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Laboratory considerations about frictional force on pipe surface when slurry machine is used

  • Khazaei Saeid;Shimada Hideki;Kawai Takashi;Yotsumoto Jyunichi;Sato Iwao;Matsui Kikuo
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.214-220
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    • 2003
  • Pipe jacking is a name for a method to excavate a tunnel by pushing pipe into the ground from an especial pit. Size of tunnels in this method is different from under 900mm (microtunneling) to more than 3,000mm. Method of excavation is also different from hand digging to use of any kind of tunnel boring machines such as slurry and earth pressure balance (EPB) machines. Slurry pipe jacking was firmly established as a special method for the nondisruptive construction of the underground tunnels in urban area. During the pipe jacking and microtunneling process, the jacking load is an important parameter, controlling the pipe wall thickness, need to and location of intermediate jacking station, selection of jacking frame and lubrication requirements. The main component of the jacking load is due to frictional resistance. In this paper the skin friction between pipe surface and surrounding condition also lubricant quality based on a few fundamental tests, were considered. During this study unconfined compressive strength test, dynamic friction measurement test and direct shear box test were raised for one of the largest diameter slurry pipe jacking project in Fujisawa city in Japan. It could be concluded that in slurry pipe jacking, prediction of frictional forces are mainly dependent on successful lubrication, its quality and lubricant strength parameters. Conclusions from this study can be used for the same experiences.

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An equivalent linear SDOF system for prediction of nonlinear displacement demands of non-ductile reinforced concrete buildings with shear walls

  • Saman Yaghmaei-Sabegh;Shabnam Neekmanesh;Nelson Lam;Anita Amirsardari;Nasser Taghizadieh
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.85 no.5
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    • pp.655-664
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    • 2023
  • Reinforced concrete (RC) shear wall structures are one of the most widely used structural systems to resist seismic loading all around the world. Although there have been several efforts to provide conceptually simple procedures to reasonably assess the seismic demands of structures over recent decades, it seems that lesser effort has been put on a number of structural forms such as RC shear wall structures. Therefore, this study aims to represent a simple linear response spectrum-based method which can acceptably predict the nonlinear displacements of a non-ductile RC shear wall structure subjected to an individual ground motion record. An effective period and an equivalent damping ratio are introduced as the dynamic characteristics of an equivalent linear SDOF system relevant to the main structure. By applying the fundamental mode participation factor of the original MDOF structure to the linear spectral response of the equivalent SDOF system, an acceptable estimation of the nonlinear displacement response is obtained. Subsequently, the accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated by comparison with another approximate method which is based on linear response spectrum. Results show that the proposed method has better estimations for maximum nonlinear responses and is more utilizable and applicable than the other one.

Time Series Prediction of Dynamic Response of a Free-standing Riser using Quadratic Volterra Model (Quadratic Volterra 모델을 이용한 자유지지 라이저의 동적 응답 시계열 예측)

  • Kim, Yooil
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.274-282
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    • 2014
  • Time series of the dynamic response of a slender marine structure was predicted using quadratic Volterra series. The wave-structure interaction system was identified using the NARX(Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input) technique, and the network parameters were determined through the supervised training with the prepared datasets. The dataset used for the network training was obtained by carrying out the nonlinear finite element analysis on the freely standing riser under random ocean waves of white noise. The nonlinearities involved in the analysis were both large deformation of the structure under consideration and the quadratic term of relative velocity between the water particle and structure in Morison formula. The linear and quadratic frequency response functions of the given system were extracted using the multi-tone harmonic probing method and the time series of response of the structure was predicted using the quadratic Volterra series. In order to check the applicability of the method, the response of structure under the realistic ocean wave environment with given significant wave height and modal period was predicted and compared with the nonlinear time domain simulation results. It turned out that the predicted time series of the response of structure with quadratic Volterra series successfully captures the slowly varying response with reasonably good accuracy. It is expected that the method can be used in predicting the response of the slender offshore structure exposed to the Morison type load without relying on the computationally expensive time domain analysis, especially for the screening purpose.

Development of a Dynamic Model for Water Quality Simulation during Unsteady Flow in Water Distribution Networks (부정류 흐름에서 상수관망 수질해석을 위한 동역학적 모형의 개발)

  • Choi, Doo-Yong;Cho, Won-cheol;Kim, Do-Hwan;Bae, Cheol-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.609-617
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    • 2012
  • A dynamic water quality model is presented in order to simulate water quality under slowly varying flow conditions over time. To improve numerical accuracy, the proposed model uses a lumped system approach instead of extended period simulation, unlike the other available models. This approach can achieve computational efficiency by assuming liquid and pipe walls to be rigid, unlike the method of characteristics, which has been successfully implemented in rapidly varying flows. The discrete volume method is applied to resolve the advection and reaction terms of the transport equation for water quality constituents in pipes. Numerical applications are implemented to the pipe network examples under steady and unsteady conditions as well as hydraulic and water quality simulations. The numerical results are compared with EPANET2, which is a widely used simulation model for a water distribution system. The model results are in good agreement with EPANET2 for steady-state simulation. However, the hydraulic simulation results under unsteady flows differ from those of EPANET2, which causes a deviation in water quality prediction. The proposed model is expected to be a component of an integrated operation model for a water distribution system if it is combined with a computational model for rapidly varying flows to estimate leakage, pipe roughness, and intensive water quality.

A Study on the Necessary Thrust of Tugs through the Ship's Towing Test (실선 예항시험을 통한 예인선의 소요마력 산출에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Chang-Hyun;Nam, Taek-Kun;Choi, Hyuek-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.405-411
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    • 2014
  • It needed the calculation of the required tugboat's power to move the damaged vessel to the safe area for reducing the additional damages. In this paper, it was verified the theoretical calculation method on the required power of tugboat through the 93m real ship tests. From the experiments, it was considered that the theoretical calculation method was sufficient to estimate the required power of tugboat. The resistance of the locked propeller was relatively big portions compared with other static resistances such as air resistance, frictional resistance and residual resistance. And dynamic resistance induced by swing movement and yawing was continuously occurred and it also was great effects on the total resistance. In the future, the safety factor will be considered and the exact prediction of ship's resistance will enhance the efficiency of tugboat because of the minimization of safety factor.