• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic prediction method

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Particle relaxation method for structural parameters identification based on Monte Carlo Filter

  • Sato, Tadanobu;Tanaka, Youhei
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 2013
  • In this paper we apply Monte Carlo Filter to identifying dynamic parameters of structural systems and improve the efficiency of this algorithm. The algorithms using Monte Carlo Filter so far has not been practical to apply to structural identification for large scale structural systems because computation time increases exponentially as the degrees of freedom of the system increase. To overcome this problem, we developed a method being able to reduce number of particles which express possible structural response state vector. In MCF there are two steps which are the prediction and filtering processes. The idea is very simple. The prediction process remains intact but the filtering process is conducted at each node of structural system in the proposed method. We named this algorithm as relaxation Monte Carlo Filter (RMCF) and demonstrate its efficiency to identify large degree of freedom systems. Moreover to increase searching field and speed up convergence time of structural parameters we proposed an algorithm combining the Genetic Algorithm with RMCF and named GARMCF. Using shaking table test data of a model structure we also demonstrate the efficiency of proposed algorithm.

CDN Scalability Improvement using a Moderate Peer-assisted Method

  • Shi, Peichang;Wang, Huaimin;Yin, Hao;Ding, Bo;Wang, Tianzuo;Wang, Miao
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.954-972
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    • 2012
  • Content Delivery Networks (CDN) server loads that fluctuant necessitate CDN to improve its service scalability especially when the peak load exceeds its service capacity. The peer assisted scheme is widely used in improving CDN scalability. However, CDN operators do not want to lose profit by overusing it, which may lead to the CDN resource utilization reduced. Therefore, improving CDN scalability moderately and guarantying CDN resource utilization maximized is necessary. However, when and how to use the peer-assisted scheme to achieve such improvement remains a great challenge. In this paper, we propose a new method called Dynamic Moderate Peer-assisted Method (DMPM), which uses time series analysis to predict and decide when and how many server loads needs to offload. A novel peer-assisted mechanism based on the prediction designed, which can maximize the profit of the CDN operators without influencing scalability. Extensive evaluations based on an actual CDN load traces have shown the effectiveness of DMPM.

Multi-step wind speed forecasting synergistically using generalized S-transform and improved grey wolf optimizer

  • Ruwei Ma;Zhexuan Zhu;Chunxiang Li;Liyuan Cao
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.461-475
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    • 2024
  • A reliable wind speed forecasting method is crucial for the applications in wind engineering. In this study, the generalized S-transform (GST) is innovatively applied for wind speed forecasting to uncover the time-frequency characteristics in the non-stationary wind speed data. The improved grey wolf optimizer (IGWO) is employed to optimize the adjustable parameters of GST to obtain the best time-frequency resolution. Then a hybrid method based on IGWO-optimized GST is proposed to validate the effectiveness and superiority for multi-step non-stationary wind speed forecasting. The historical wind speed is chosen as the first input feature, while the dynamic time-frequency characteristics obtained by IGWO-optimized GST are chosen as the second input feature. Comparative experiment with six competitors is conducted to demonstrate the best performance of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and stability. The superiority of the GST compared to other time-frequency analysis methods is also discussed by another experiment. It can be concluded that the introduction of IGWO-optimized GST can deeply exploit the time-frequency characteristics and effectively improving the prediction accuracy.

Orbit Determination Error Analysis for the KOMPSAT (다목적 실용위성의 궤도 결정 오차 분석)

  • 이정숙;이병선
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 1998
  • Orbit error analysis was performed for the GPS navigation solutions and ground station tracking data of the KOMPSAT (Korea Multi-Purpose SATellite), which will be launched in 1999 for cartography of Korean peninsula as main mission. A least square method was used for the orbit determination and prediction error simulation including tracking data noises and dynamic modeling errors. It was found that a short-term periodic orbit determination error was caused by the tracking data noise and dominant orbit prediction error was caused by solar flux uncertainty.

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On-line Optimal EMS Implementation for Distributed Power System

  • Choi, Wooin;Baek, Jong-Bok;Cho, Bo-Hyung
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2012.11a
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    • pp.33-34
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    • 2012
  • As the distributed power system with PV and ESS is highlighted to be one of the most prominent structure to replace the traditional electric power system, power flow scheduling is expected to bring better system efficiency. Optimal energy management system (EMS) where the power from PV and the grid is managed in time-domain using ESS needs an optimization process. In this paper, main optimization method is implemented using dynamic programming (DP). To overcome the drawback of DP in which ideal future information is required, prediction stage precedes every EMS execution. A simple auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) forecasting followed by a PI-controller updates the prediction data. Assessment of the on-line optimal EMS scheme has been evaluated on several cases.

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control of a Flexible Robot Manipulator (유연한 로봇 팔의 제어 방법)

  • 박정일;박종국
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 1994
  • The dynamic equation of a flexible robot manipulator is formulated by the assumed-mode method and the Lagrange equation. The controller is designed for a flexible robot manipulator including a joint actuator. The controller consists of a parmaeter estimator and the adaptive controller. A parameter estimator evaluates ARMA model`s parameter using RLS algorithm. An adaptive controller is designed based on a reference model and a minimum prediction error controller.

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Novel Techniques for Real Time Computing Critical Clearing Time SIME-B and CCS-B

  • Dinh, Hung Nguyen;Nguyen, Minh Y.;Yoon, Yong Tae
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2013
  • Real time transient stability assessment mainly depends on real-time prediction. Unfortunately, conventional techniques based on offline analysis are too slow and unreliable in complex power systems. Hence, fast and reliable stability prediction methods and simple stability criterions must be developed for real time purposes. In this paper, two new methods for real time determining critical clearing time based on clustering identification are proposed. This article is covering three main sections: (i) clustering generators and recognizing critical group; (ii) replacing the multi-machine system by a two-machine dynamic equivalent and eventually, to a one-machine-infinite-bus system; (iii) presenting a new method to predict post-fault trajectory and two simple algorithms for calculating critical clearing time, respectively established upon two different transient stability criterions. The performance is expected to figure out critical clearing time within 100ms-150ms and with an acceptable accuracy.

A Prediction Model of Resilient Modulus for Recycled Crushed-Rock-Soil-Mixture (재활용 암버력 - 토사의 회복탄성계수 예측 모델)

  • Park, In-Beom;Mok, Young-Jin
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2010
  • A prediction model of resilient modulus($E_R$) was developed for recycled crushed-rock-soil mixtures. The evaluation of $E_R$, using the "orthodox" repeated loading tri-axial test, is not feasible for such a large-size gravelly material. An alternative method was proposed hereby using the subtle different modulus called nonlinear dynamic modulus. The prediction model was developed by utilizing in-situ measured shear modulus($G_{max}$) and its reduction curves of modeled materials using the large free-free resonant column test. A pilot evaluation of the model parameters was carried out for recycled crushed-rock-soil-mixture at a highway construction site near Gimcheon, Korea. The values of the model parameters($A_E,\;n_E,\;{\varepsilon}_r\;and\;{\alpha}$) were proposed as 9618, 0.47, 0.0135, and 0.8, respectively.

Metaheuristic models for the prediction of bearing capacity of pile foundation

  • Kumar, Manish;Biswas, Rahul;Kumar, Divesh Ranjan;T., Pradeep;Samui, Pijush
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.129-147
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    • 2022
  • The properties of soil are naturally highly variable and thus, to ensure proper safety and reliability, we need to test a large number of samples across the length and depth. In pile foundations, conducting field tests are highly expensive and the traditional empirical relations too have been proven to be poor in performance. The study proposes a state-of-art Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS); and comparative analysis of metaheuristic models (ANN-PSO, ELM-PSO, ANFIS-PSO) for prediction of bearing capacity of pile foundation trained and tested on dataset of nearly 300 dynamic pile tests from the literature. A novel ensemble model of three hybrid models is constructed to combine and enhance the predictions of the individual models effectively. The authenticity of the dataset is confirmed using descriptive statistics, correlation matrix and sensitivity analysis. Ram weight and diameter of pile are found to be most influential input parameter. The comparative analysis reveals that ANFIS-PSO is the best performing model in testing phase (R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 0.01) while ELM-PSO performs best in training phase (R2 = 0.88, RMSE = 0.08); while the ensemble provided overall best performance based on the rank score. The performance of ANN-PSO is least satisfactory compared to the other two models. The findings were confirmed using Taylor diagram, error matrix and uncertainty analysis. Based on the results ELM-PSO and ANFIS-PSO is proposed to be used for the prediction of bearing capacity of piles and ensemble learning method of joining the outputs of individual models should be encouraged. The study possesses the potential to assist geotechnical engineers in the design phase of civil engineering projects.

Distortion Correction Modeling Method for Zoom Lens Cameras with Bundle Adjustment

  • Fang, Wei;Zheng, Lianyu
    • Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.140-149
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    • 2016
  • For visual measurement under dynamic scenarios, a zoom lens camera is more flexible than a fixed one. However, the challenges of distortion prediction within the whole focal range limit the widespread application of zoom lens cameras greatly. Thus, a novel sequential distortion correction method for a zoom lens camera is proposed in this study. In this paper, a distortion assessment method without coupling effect is depicted by an elaborated chessboard pattern. Then, the appropriate distortion correction model for a zoom lens camera is derived from the comparisons of some existing models and methods. To gain a rectified image at any zoom settings, a global distortion correction modeling method is developed with bundle adjustment. Based on some selected zoom settings, the optimized quadratic functions of distortion parameters are obtained from the global perspective. Using the proposed method, we can rectify all images from the calibrated zoom lens camera. Experimental results of different zoom lens cameras validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.