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Drought Risk Analysis Using Stochastic Rainfall Generation Model and Copula Functions (추계학적 강우발생모형과 Copula 함수를 이용한 가뭄위험분석)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Shin, Ji Yae;Kim, Dongkyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.425-437
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    • 2013
  • This study performed the bivariate drought frequency analysis for duration and severity of drought, using copula functions which allow considering the correlation structure of joint features of drought. We suggested the confidence intervals of duration-severity-frequency (DSF) curves for the given drought duration using stochastic scheme of monthly rainfall generation for 57 sites in Korea. This study also investigated drought risk via illustrating the largest drought events on record over 50 and 100 consecutive years. It appears that drought risks are much higher in some parts of the Nakdong River basin, southern and east coastal areas. However, such analyses are not always reliable, especially when the frequency analysis is performed based on the data observed over relatively short period of time. To quantify the uncertainty of drought frequency curves, the droughts were filtered by different durations. The 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% confidence intervals of the drought severity for a given duration were estimated based on the simulated rainfall time series. Finally, it is shown that the growing uncertainties is revealed in the estimation of the joint probability using the two marginal distributions since the correlation coefficient of two variables is relatively low.

Clinical Analysis of 61 Krukenberg Tumors (크루켄버그 종양 61예에 대한 임상적 분석)

  • Kim Joo Dong;Yook Jeong Hwan;Kim Yong Man;Choi Won Yong;Kim Yong Jin;Lim Jung Taek;Oh Sung Tae;Kim Byung Sik
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.126-130
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: A Krukenberg tumor is an ovarian tumor of a signet-ring cell type. This tumor arises more commonly in young women, and the prognosis is poor. The primary focus of this tumor is often found at gastrointestinal malignancy, especially gastric cancer. We tried to identify the clinical characteristics of this tumor, and in that regard, this report might be helpful. Materials and Methods: We reviewed the 61 patients with Krukenberg tumors, who had been diagnosed at our hospital from 1994 to 2002, and retrospectively analyzed the clinical features. Results: The age distribution ranged from 15 to 59 years, and the mean age was 41 years. The most common symptom was a lower abdominal mass ($46\%$). Fourty-two cases ($77\%$) showed bilateral ovarian involvement, and the size of this tumor was variable, but in 24 cases ($4\%$) the size was $5\∼10$ cm for the largest diameter. Among 54 cases, 40 cases had ascites, and the volume of ascites was variable. The median survival of the 61 patients was 10 months, and Krukenberg tumor developed 19.7 months after the primary operation. The median survival durations of recurrence patterns were 20 months for the Krukenberg tumor alone, and 7 months for the Krukenberg tumor with peritoneal seeding. Conclusion: In young women treated with a gastrectomy, especially one for an advanced tumor, closed observation with abdominal ultrasonography or computed tomography to detect a Krukenberg tumor is recommended. The patient with a Krukenberg tumor alone has a better prognosis than one with a Krukenberg tumor combined peritoneal seeding. We will have to consider more progressive treatment for the patient with a Krukenberg tumor alone.

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Characteristics of speech rate and pause in children with spastic cerebral palsy and their relationships with speech intelligibility (경직형 뇌성마비 아동의 하위그룹별 말속도와 쉼의 특성 및 말명료도와의 관계)

  • Jeong, Pil Yeon;Sim, Hyun Sub
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2020
  • The current study aimed to identify the characteristics of speech rate and pause in children with spastic cerebral palsy (CP) and their relationships with speech intelligibility. In all, 26 children with CP, 4 with no speech motor involvement and age-appropriate language ability (NSMI-LCT), 6 with no speech motor involvement and impaired language ability (NSMI-LCI), 6 with speech motor involvement and age-appropriate language ability (SMI- LCT), and 10 with speech motor involvement and impaired language ability (SMI-LCI) participated in the study. Speech samples for the speech rate and pause analysis were extracted using a sentence repetition task. Acoustic analysis were made in Praat. First, it was found that regardless of the presence of language impairment, significant group differences between the NSMI and SMI groups were found in speech rate and articulation rate. Second, the SMI groups showed a higher ratio of pause time to sentence production time, more frequent pauses, and longer durations of pauses than the NSMI groups. Lastly, there were significant correlations among speech rate, articulation rate, and intelligibility. These findings suggest that slow speech rate is the main feature in SMI groups, and that both speech rate and articulation rate play important roles in the intelligibility of children with spastic CP.

Analysis of environmental effects affecting reproductive traits of primiparous and multiparous Hanwoo

  • Eum, Seung-Hoon;Park, Hu-Rak;Seo, Jakyeom;Cho, Seong-Keun;Kim, Byeong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.369-378
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    • 2016
  • Improving the reproductive traits of Hanwoo might decrease their production cost. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the effects of environmental factors [registration grade (basic, pedigree or advanced), birth year, birth season, parity, delivery year, and delivery season] on various reproductive traits (age at 1st service, age at 1st conception, age for 1st calving, days at 1st service postpartum, non-pregnant condition period, calving interval, gestation length, and number of services for conception) in Hanwoo (primiparous 12,219 heads, multiparous 10,471 heads). All data was acquired from Gyeongnam province areas which were surveyed from 2007 to 2015. All environmental factors significantly influenced (p < 0.01) reproductive traits of primiparous cows but, but not all environmental factors influenced multiparous cows. Primiparous cows registered as advanced grade showed significantly lower age at 1st service (by 15.36 days), age at 1st conception (by 8.66 days), and age for 1st calving (by 8.77 days) (p < 0.01) than those registered as basic grades. Age at 1st service, age at 1st conception and age for 1st calving were not significantly related to birth year in primiparous cows. As delivery years advanced from 2005 to 2012, all durations associated to reproductive traits tended to be shorter. Days at 1st service postpartum, non-pregnant condition period, and calving interval tended to be shortened as parity increased. Days at 1st service postpartum, days open, calving interval, and gestation in multiparous cows calved in winter were shorter than those in summer. The registration grade was not a effected with reproductive traits in Hanwoo.

Studies on the Embryonic Development of the Oriental Tobacco Budworm, Heliothis assulta Guenee(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) (담배나방의 배자발생(胚子發生)에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kye-Chung;Boo, Kyung-Saeng
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.24 no.3 s.64
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 1985
  • Embryonic developmental rates of the Oriental tobacco budworm, Heliothis assulta Guenee, were compared at various constant temperatures and 16 hours of light, and detailed embryogenesis was also studied at $25^{\circ}C$. The egg was nearly globular in form and had an average equatorial diameter of 0.53mm. A single micropyle was in the center of the circular area at the anterior pole of the egg. Durations of embryogenesis at 20, 25, 30, and $35^{\circ}C$ were 147, 81, 61, and 67hrs, respectively. Embryonic death was especially higher at $35^{\circ}C$ than any other temperatures investigated. Embryogenesis progressed with changes in color and pattern, which are quite characteristic at each developmental stage of the embryo. At $25^{\circ}C$, organogenesis began in 14hrs after oviposition, formation of gut completed in 44hrs and eclosion occurred in 80hrs. The embryo formed along the long axis at early developmental stage, moved towards the equatorial plane in 24hrs, and made a half-turn on the plane in 36hrs. In 40hrs, head was oriented to the anterior pole of the egg until eclosion.

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Oviposition Activities of Larger Black Chafer (Holotrichia morosa Waterhouse) and Korean Black Chafer (H. diomphalia Bates) (큰검정풍뎅이와 참검정풍뎅이의 산란활동)

  • 김기황;손준수
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.265-270
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    • 1991
  • Oviposition activities of the larger black chafer(HolotTichia mOTosa Waterhouse) and Korean black chafer(H. diomphalia Bates) were examined in the laboratory and field from 1985 to 1990. In H. mOTosa and H. diomphalia, total durations of oviposition were 31.70$\pm$17.33 days and 61.17$\pm$23.15 days, numbers of days of actual oviposition were 9.00$\pm$5.03 days and 22.33 $\pm$11.72 days, total numbers of eggs laid laid per female were 23.43$\pm$16.26 and 65.67$\pm$37.97, and numbers of eggs laid per female per day were 2.60$\pm$2.50 and 2.94$\pm$2.34, under laboratory conditions. Difference of total numbers of eggs per female between both species seemed to be due mainly to numbers of days of actual oviposition. Oviposition period under laboratory conditions was considerably delayed behind that in the field in H. morosa but the two oviposition periods were almost overlapped in H. diomphalia. In the field, rates of gravid females of H. diomphalia were obviously higher than those of H. mOTosa, but numbers of eggs per gravid female were almost same in the two species, H. diomphalia adults did not show marked oviposition and feeding preference among several species of weed plants in the insect net chamber.

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A Bayesian GLM Model Based Regional Frequency Analysis Using Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfalls (극치자료계열의 Scaling 특성과 Bayesian GLM Model을 이용한 지역빈도해석)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Byung-Suk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2017
  • Design rainfalls are one of the most important hydrologic data for river management, hydraulic structure design and risk analysis. The design rainfalls are first estimated by a point frequency analysis and the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is then constructed by a nonlinear regression to either interpolate or extrapolate the design rainfalls for other durations which are not used in the frequency analysis. It has been widely recognised that the more reliable approaches are required to better account for uncertainties associated with the model parameters under circumstances where limited hydrologic data are available for the watershed of interest. For these reasons, this study developed a hierarchical Bayesian based GLM (generalized linear model) for a regional frequency analysis in conjunction with a scaling function of the parameters in probability distribution. The proposed model provided a reliable estimation of a set of parameters for each individual station, as well as offered a regional estimate of the parameters, which allow us to have a regional IDF curve. Overall, we expected the proposed model can be used for different aspects of water resources planning at various stages and in addition for the ungaged basin.

Development and Growth of Larvae of Four Bivalve Species (4종 조개류 유생의 발생과 성장)

  • 허영백;허성범
    • Journal of Aquaculture
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2000
  • Exposure to air and increased temperature induced successful spawning in Mytilus edulis, M. coruscus Crassostrea gigas and Pinctata fucata martensii. Developmental durations required for an egg to attain D-shaped larva and the D-shaped larva to reach pediveliger stage were estimated in these bivalves. Size of fertilized eggs was the largest (70.3 ${\mu}m$) in M. coruscus and the smallest (45.3 ${\mu}m$) in P. fucata martensii. At 17$^{\circ}C$, M. edulis and M. coruscus attained D-shaped larval stage within 48 hours after fertilization but those of C. gigas and B. fucata martensiii within 24 and 22 hours at 21 and 26$^{\circ}C$, respectively. The development duration required for a D-shaped larva to attain pediveliger stage was the longest (27 days) in M. coruscus and ranged between 20 and 22 days for the others. The shell length of the pediveliger was the longest (274.9 ${\mu}m$) in C. gigas and smallest (190.9 ${\mu}m$) in P. fucata martensii Length and height of larval shell was highly correlated with each other in all the 4 species. The shell height of C. gigas was more than the shell length beyond the size of 100 ${\mu}m$ shell length. However, shell length of the others was always longer than shell height at the larval stage.

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Analysis of Drought Return and Duration Characteristics at Seoul (서울지점 가뭄의 재현 및 지속특성 분석)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Ryoo, So-Ra
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.561-573
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    • 2003
  • This study has analyzed the drought return and duration characteristics using the monthly rainfall at Seoul, and compared them with those obtained by applying the Poisson process. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as the drought index along with the 10 month moving average for the rainfall smoothing. The thresholds applied for the analysis of drought were -1.00, -1.50, and -2.00. The drought return and duration characteristics derived from the analysis of observed data show that: (1) The moderate drought occurs every 2 years and lasts about 4 - 5 months. (2) The severe drought occurs every 3 - 5 years and lasts about 2 - 4 months. (3) The extreme drought occurs every 8 - 23 years and lasts about 1 - 4 months. Especially, the severe droughts (thresholds of -1.5 and -2.0) before the long dry period were found to have longer return periods but shorter durations than those after the long dry period. This seems to be because of the high variability of precipitation as well as the fact that no snowfall has been added for the winter precipitation before the long dry period. Finally, the comparison of results derived from the analysis of observed data and those derived by applying the Poisson process shows that the Poisson process well explain the return and duration characteristics of drought.

Future Projections on the Change of Onset Date and Duration of Natural Seasons Using SRES A1B Data in South Korea (A1B 시나리오 자료를 이용한 우리나라 자연 계절 시작일 및 지속기간 변화 전망)

  • Kwon, Young-Ah;Kwon, Won-Tae;Boo, Kyung-On
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.835-850
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    • 2007
  • This study examines long-term trends of onset dates and durations of season decomposed by applying a lowpass filtering using observed 80-year(1921-2000) data and projected 2040s and 2090s data based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario in South Korea. As recent climate changes on seasonal cycles in South Korea, the onset dates of spring and summer began earlier after 1970s. But onset dates of autumn and winter were delayed. Winter duration was more shortened during the post-1990 period. Summer duration is longer and winter duration is shorter at southern and eastern coastal area. The different of summer duration and winter duration in coastal area was longer than over the inland. The reduction in winter duration in South Korea agrees with results in overall global warming trends as a climate change signal. Future model output data predict that winter will disappear in Gangneung, Busan and Mokpo in the 2090s