• 농촌계획
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.29-37
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• 2003

The objectives of this study are to develop an agricultural drought evaluation model based on administrative boundaries and to assist the effective drought-related decision-making of local governments. The model which was named ADEM(Administrative Drought Evaluation Model for Paddies) is designed to simulate daily water balance between available water quantities from various agricultural water facilities such as reservoirs, wells, pump stations, etc. and water requirements in paddies. And in order to numerically describe the agricultural drought severity, two indices were defined; One is ADFP(Agricultural Drought Frequency for Paddies) which is calculated with a frequency analysis of monthly water deficit, and the other is ADIP(Agricultural Drought Index for Paddies) with a scale of $-4.2{\sim}+4.2$. The developed model was applied to Yeoju district and showed good correspondence with the historical records of drought.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 1999년도 Proceedings of the 1999 Annual Conference The Korean Society of Agricutural Engineers
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• pp.63-68
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to design the framework of DSS (Decision Support System) for drought mitigation with internet and web interface. The users who apart from central government always connect to its main server via iternet. And web interface and browser operable models make it possible to analze data related with drought and planning for drought mitigation . Thereby, it need to build a database system , which manages data update from the users, and develop java-applet programs to assist decision making. The framework of DSS might be nicely adapted to the planning and decision making for the agricultural drought migigation.

• 농촌계획
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.47-55
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• 2018

Currently in the drought evaluation, which is a supplier-oriented standard that applies storage rates of reservoirs, evaluation for users that use agricultural water is not done. Therefore, this study established drought evaluation items for drought evaluation based on farmers' judgement, conducted a survey on farmers and experts, compared and analyzed weighted value between two groups, and then classified the evaluation standards per each evaluation item. The agricultural drought evaluation items are 5 major items of water supply lapse rate, agricultural weather, agricultural irrigation facility, crop and soil, and 12 subsections for regional characteristics and opinions of consumers that use water to be reflected. The result of analyzing weighted value of farmers and experts' major items shows that farmers is agricultural irrigation facility(0.219), water supply lapse rate(0.211), agricultural weather(0.204), crop(0.183) and soil(0.183). Experts is agricultural weather(0.297), agricultural irrigation facility(0.202), water supply lapse rate(0.189), crop(0.162) and soil(0.150), which displays difference between the two groups. The agricultural drought criteria standards are established based on precedent studies and cases, and grades of evaluation items are 1st grade(extreme stage), 2nd grade(warning stage), 3rd grade(alert stage) and 4th grade(attention stage). The above analysis per each consumer-oriented agricultural drought evaluation item and the analysis on the standards of evaluation grades are expected to be used as a basic resource for establishing agriculture drought policy and selecting drought area in the future.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 빈도, 심도 및 지속기간 등이 증가함에 따라 가뭄 위험도가 높아질 것으로 전망되고 있다. 가뭄 위험도는 수문기상학적 요인뿐만 아니라 용수의 공급 및 수요와 관련 있다. 최근에는 기후변화와 함께 사회경제적인 요인도 가뭄 위험도를 높이는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 따라서 미래에 발생가능한 심각한 가뭄에 적절히 대응하기 위하여 다양한 조건에서의 가뭄 위험도를 전망할 필요가 있다. 또한, 다양한 시나리오를 고려하는 것은 미래의 가뭄 위험도 전망이 가지는 불확실성을 줄이는데 도움이 될 것이다. 본 연구에서는 한국의 160개 시군구에 대한 기후변화 시나리오와 인구 및 용수 수요량 등을 고려하여 가뭄 시나리오를 작성하고 이에 따른 가뭄 위험도를 전망하였으며, 가뭄 위험도 전망 결과를 토대로 가뭄 위험 단계를 재설정하였다. 그 결과 한국의 가뭄 위험도는 과거에 비해 2020, 2025 및 2030년에서 모두 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 기준 및 고위 시나리오에 따르면 2030년에는 가뭄 위험도가 과거보다 약 2배 정도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 산정된 가뭄 전망 결과를 새로운 가뭄 위험 단계에 적용한 결과, 기준 및 고위 시나리오에서는 2020년 및 2030년에 한국 대부분의 지역에서 대응(V) 단계로 나타났다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.31-37
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• 1988

This study, based on the monthly rainfall data, was carried out to determine the agricultural drought index which enables to describe the regional and seasonal drought characteristics of rice cropping system in Korea. The results obtained were summarized as follows ; 1.A new agricultural drought index (ADI) was evaluated seasonally according to the product of drought intensity and duration. This ADI is proposed as standard design criterion for irrigation planning. 2.The relationship between agricultural drought index and return periods was figured out. These diagrams could be used to estimate the seasonal drought severity of a certain year and to select design year corresponding to the specific drought frequency. 3.The regional drought characteristics were classified and those are useful to determine proper rice varieties and planting time and make drought counterplans. 4.Spring drought occurred once in 3 or 4 years and in a regional respect, rather frequently occurred in Seoul and Daegu areas than in Busan, Daejeon, Kwangju and Chuncheon areas. Summer drought occurred once in 5 years in Daegu and Busan areas and once in 7 or 8 years in other areas. 5.Sequential drought which gave severe drought damage of rice production occurred once in 20 years in Daegu area and in 10 years in Kwangju area.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.199-214
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• 2006

가뭄기간의 효율적인 저수지 운영은 가뭄계획에서 중요한 요소이다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄기간에 저수지의 용수공급능력을 모니터링 할 수 있는 새로운 가뭄지수로서 물공급능력지수(Water Supply Capacity Index, WSCI)를 개발하였다. WSCI는 극심한 기상조건하에서 각 저수지가 수요량에 대해 어느 정도 기간 용수를 공급할 수 있는가를 평가할 수 있는 정량적 지표이다. WSCI는 가뭄기간의 저수지 운영을 위한 의사결정에 대한 유용한 정보를 제공하고, 저수지에서 용수를 공급받는 지역의 가뭄단계 설정에 활용될 수 있다. 표준화된 WSCI와 기존에 널리 이용되고 있는 PDSI, SPI, SWSI와 비교 분석함으로써 WSCI의 유용성을 확인하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.150-150
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• 2019

The development of prolong and severe drought can directly impact on the environment, agriculture, economics and society of country. A lot of efforts have been made across worldwide in the planning, monitoring and mitigation of drought. Currently, different drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are developed and most commonly used to monitor drought characteristics quantitatively. However, it will be very meaningful and essential to develop a more effective technique for assessment and monitoring of onset and end of drought. Therefore, in this study, the hidden Markov Bayesian classifier (MBC) was employed for the assessment of onset and end of meteorological drought classes. The results showed that the probabilities of different classes based on the MBC were quite suitable and can be employed to estimate onset and end of each class for meteorological droughts. The classification results of MBC were compared with SPI and with past studies which proved that the MBC was able to account accuracy in determining the accurate drought classes. For more performance evaluation of classification results confusion matrix was used to find accuracy and precision in predicting the classes and their results are also appropriate. The overall results indicate that the MBC was effective in predicating the onset and end of drought events and can utilized for monitoring and management of short-term drought risk.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.151-151
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• 2019

Because drought is a complex and stochastic phenomenon in nature, statistical approaches for drought assessment receive great attention for water resource planning and management. Generally drought characteristics such as severity, duration and intensity are modelled separately. This study aims to develop a relationship between drought characteristics using a bivariate copula model. To achieve the objective, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data at 6 rain gauge stations for the period of 1961-1999 in Jehlum River Basin, Pakistan, and investigated the drought characteristics. Since there is a significant correlation between drought severity and duration, they are usually modeled using different marginal distributions and joint distribution function. Using exponential distribution for drought severity and log-logistic distribution for drought duration, the Galambos copula was recognized as best copula to model joint distribution of drought severity and duration based on the KS-statistic. Various return periods of drought were calculated to identify time interval of repeated drought events. The result of this study can provide useful information for effective water resource management and shows superiority against univariate drought analysis.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권8호
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• pp.645-658
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• 2006

수문학적인 가뭄평가를 위하여 SWSI 가뭄지수를 보완한 MSWSI 개발하였다. MSWSI의 적용을 위하여 가뭄에 영향을 미치는 수문인자가 동질한 지역 즉, 댐, 하천, 지하수, 강수 지역으로 전국을 32개의 지역으로 분할하였다. 각각의 지역에 MSWSI를 적용하여 공간적으로 준분포형의 수문학적 가뭄 정보를 획득하였으며, 시간적으로 1974년부터 2001년까지의 한달 간격으로 평가하였다. 과거 가뭄 사상 년도에 대하여 기상학적 가뭄지수인 PDSI와의 비교, 분석을 통하여 수문학적인 가뭄 평가 결과에 대하여 검증하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권9호
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• pp.801-812
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 PDSI, SPI, MSWSI 등의 가뭄지수를 이용하여 가뭄을 단계별로 모니터링 할 수 있는 통합가뭄지수를 개발하였으며 개발된 통합가뭄지수에 의해 작성된 한반도의 가뭄도를 과거 가뭄과 비교 검증한 결과 매우 잘 일치하는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 따라서 통합가뭄지수가 가뭄을 정량적으로 모니터링 하는데 유용한 지표로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다 또한, 기상청에서 시행하고 있는 기온, 강수량의 장 단기 예보자료를 이용하여 가뭄지수의 예측치를 산정 한 후, 미래에 가뭄상황이 어떻게 진행될 것인가에 대한 가뭄전망기법을 개발하였으며 한반도 전역에 대한 실시간 가뭄전망이 가능하도록 전체 시스템을 구축하였다. 뿐만 아니라 가뭄기초 자료 관리, 가뭄지수 산정 및 가뭄현황도 작성 등 종합적인 가뭄정보 분석을 위한 가뭄 모니터링시스템을 개발하여 웹을 통하여 일반인들에게 제공할 수 있도록 시스템을 구축하였다.