• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.133-142
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• 2018

Climate change will affect not only the crop productivity but also the pattern of rice disease epidemics in Korea. Impact assessments for the climate change are conducted using various climate change scenarios from many global climate models (GCM), such as a scenario from a best GCM or scenarios from multiple GCMs, or a combination of both. Here, we evaluated the feasibility of using a climate change scenario from the best GCM for the impact assessment on the potential epidemics of a rice leaf blast disease in Korea, in comparison to a multi?model ensemble (MME) scenario from multiple GCMs. For this, this study involves analyses of disease simulation using an epidemiological model, EPIRICE?LB, which was validated for Korean rice paddy fields. We then assessed likely changes in disease epidemics using the best GCM selected for individual agro?climatic zones and MME scenarios constructed by running 11 GCMs. As a result, the simulated incidence of leaf blast epidemics gradually decreased over the future periods both from the best GCM and MME. The results from this study emphasized that the best GCM selection approach resulted in comparable performance to the MME approach for the climate change impact assessment on rice leaf blast epidemic in Korea.

• 대한예방한의학회지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.145-157
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• 2008

There were many books on infectious disease prevention act, and still remained 5 books including Ganuibyeokonbang. Epidemics were seriously ill and widely contagious, so it was important to prevent them. Therefore, they wrote various preventive measures from epidemics on those books. They emphasized medication, and used not only compound prescriptions but also singular ones. They wrote 5 compound prescriptions including Sohaphyangwon and many singular ones on Ganuibyeokonbang, and they used folk medicine such as red-beans준 for practical use on that book. On Sinchanbyeokonbang, they emphasized Hyangsosan and presented many prescriptions to specialize in epidemics. Heojun presented various prescriptions for Dangdokyeok on Byeokyeoksinbang, and he excluded incantation methods to cope with epidemics medically. Since Ganuibyeokonbang they had tried to improve personal hygiene such as boiling clothes of patients.

• 한국한의학연구원논문집
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• 제13권1호통권19호
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• pp.29-35
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• 2007

As epidemics were spread over the whole Pyeongan province at 1524, Jungjong commanded the government officers like Kim Sunmong to publish Sokbyeokonbang, known as Ganuibyeokonbang, to cope with the epidemics. They regarded the cause of epidemics as abnormal climate, pathogen or grudge, and named the disease on the basis of cause. To prevent epidemics they presented three kinds of method. They used a charm to calm the people, used Sohaphyangwon to keep from getting infected with them and emphasized the importance of individaul sanitation. They proposed compound herb remedies like Sipsintang, Hyangsosan, Seungmagalgeuntang and so forth according to the symptoms. They presented lots of single herbs used for food or easily seeking herbs to lighten the people's expense, in addition.

• 식물병연구
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.199-206
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• 2002

벼 도열병 발병 모의 실황 포장을 발병 상습지(안동대 실험포장; 산간 협곡 위치한 천수답)에 설정하여 벼 식물생육군락(일품벼 공시)의 실황 기상자료를 무인기상관측 장치를 통해 수집, 가공하여 도열병 발병에 미치는 기상요인의 가변값을 추정, 분석하였다. 기상요소 측정은 시험포장에 무인기상관측장치를 설치하여 매시단위로 기온, 상대습도, 일사량, 강우량, 풍향, 풍속, 지온, 잎습전지속 시간 등을 측정하였다. 각 기상요인중 도열병 발병에 가장 많은 영향을 미친 것은 발병 전 10일간 평균최고기온으로 결정계수 0.95＊을 나타냈으며, 도열병 발병에 영향을 가장 미치지 않은 요인은 풍속으로 결정계수 0.24$^{ns}$ 로 나타났다. 도열병 발병과 병 진전에 가장 높은 유의성을 보인 기상요인은 평균온도(T-ave), 최고온도(T-max), 상대습도(RH), 상대습도 90%이상인 누적시간(RD) 등이었으며, 이들을 이용한 통계적 모형은 아래와 같다. Y = -3410.91 - 23.91 $\times$ T-ave ＋ 28.56 $\times$ T-max ＋ 41.0 $\times$ RH - 3.75 $\times$ RD, ($R^2$= 0.99＊), (T-ave >= 19$^{\circ}C$ and T-max - T-ave >= 5.2$^{\circ}C$ and RH% >= 90.4%. 발병모형과 발병심각도의 적합도 검정($\chi$$^2$)은 유의도 0.001로 발병모형이 실제 발병 심각도와 유사함을 나타내었다.

• 한국가금학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.99-106
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• 1996

Because of the imminent market opening of livestock and poultry products, Korean poultry industry is faced an influx of contagious diseases from abroad. Due to the increasing trend of intensive and automatic poultry farming, the risks of catching various poultry epidemics are ever more increasing. For the prevention of poultry epidemics, the principles of biosecurity should be observed rather strictly. In addition, regular checking to confirm the presence or absence of latent diseases through serological test, post-mortem examination, and laboratory test, should be carried out routinely. Finally, all kinds of stress factors should be minimized to keep the flock healthy and productive, so that they can achieve their maximum genetic potential.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.1075-1081
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• 2016

The big data analysis has received much attention from the researchers working in various fields because the big data has a great potential in detecting or predicting future events such as epidemic outbreaks and changes in stock prices. Reflecting the current popularity of big data analysis, many authors have proposed methods tracking influenza epidemics based on internet-based information. The recently proposed 'autoregressive model using Google (ARGO) model' (Yang et al., 2015) is one of those influenza tracking models that harness search queries from Google as well as the reports from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and appears to outperform the existing method such as 'Google Flu Trends (GFT)'. Although the ARGO predicts well the outbreaks of influenza, this study demonstrates that a classical seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model can outperform the ARGO. The SARIMA model incorporates more accurate seasonality of the past influenza activities and takes less input variables into account. Our findings show that the SARIMA model is a functional tool for monitoring influenza epidemics.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.373-378
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• 2005

Influenza virus has a unique characteristics of annual epidemics of acute respiratory disease with attack rate of 10%-30% of the population. It is also the classical emerging infectious disease causing global pandemics when new antigenic shift occur. This antigenic shift is the key to its ability to evoke periodic pandemics, and it has caused at least 3 pandemics in 20th century. I reviewed these 3 pandemics in their natural courses and the epidemiology of the recent emerging influenza A viruses, especially the H5 and H7 subtypes. I descr ibed the epidemics of these vi ruses in human population and why we should be prepared to these viruses.

• 대한수학회보
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.1131-1138
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• 2010

In the present paper, we evaluate an analytic formula as a solution of Susceptible Infective (SI) model problem for communicable disease in which the daily contact rate (C(N)) is supposed to be varied linearly with population size N(t) that is large so that it is considered as a continuous variable of time t. Again, we introduce some Lie group of operators to make an extension of above analytic formula of the determin-istic epidemics model problem. Finally, we discuss some of its particular cases.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.68-73
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• 2002

The influence of fungicidal spray was assessed on powdery mildew epidemics caused by Erysiphe polygoni D.C. and on yield-attributing characters of mungbean [Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek]. Mildew attack adversely affected the yield-attributing characters of mungbean and exhibited negative significant correlation with pod length (-0.57), pods/plant (-0.74), pod weight (-0.68), 100 seeds weight (-0.69), 100 seeds swell weight (-0.59), and seed germination (-0.71). These characters had direct or indirect effects on grain yield, which was also adversely affected due to mildew attack (-0.89). Powdery mildew was significantly retarded due to the single spray of carbendazim (0.05%) at 30-day-old crop, where the apparent rate of infection (r) was minimum at 0.0095/ unit/day and with low (11.44%) powdery mildew intensity. Other fungicides like tridemorph (0.075%) and penconazole (0.05%) were equally effective against the mildew disease where the disease intensity was less than 20% and the values of r were 0.0134 and 0.039/unit/day respectively, as compared with the control at 0.267/unit/day. Fungicide spray influenced the yield-attributing characters besides controlling the disease. Such effects were more pronounced in carbendazim (0.05%)-treated plots due to its phytotonic nature where pod length (7.59cm), pods/plant (29.75), pod weight (8.16 g), 100 grain weight (3.94 g), and swell weight of 100 seed (9.49 g) were maximum resulting to the highest yield (480 kg/ha) as compared with that of control (224 kg/ha). Spray of carbendazim also improved seed germination (74.5%). Spray of other fungicides like carbendazim with copper oxychloride in 1:1 ratio, tridemorph (0.075%), and penconazole (0.05%) was equally effective against powdery mildew of mungbean. These fungicides also exhibited positive effects on yield-attributing characters of the crop and finally increased yield. These systemic fungicides were more effective in controlling powdery mildew disease of V. radiata in the rainy season compared with wettable sulphur.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.386-390
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• 2005

Influenza A viruses periodicall y cause worldwide epidemics, or pandemics, with high rates of illness and death. A pandemic can occur at any time, with the potential to cause serious illness, death and social and economic disruption throughout the world. Historic evidence suggests that pandemics occurred three to four times per century. In the last century there were three influenza pandemics. The circumstances still exist for a new influenza virus with pandemic potential to emerge an d spread. The unpredictability of the timing of the next pandemic is underlined by the occurrence of several large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza since the early 1980s. In 1999, the World Health Organization published the Influenza pandemic plan. The role of WHO and guidelines for national and regional planning. And in 2005, WHO revised the global influenza preparedness plan for new national measures before and during pandemics. This document outlines briefly the Korean Centers for Disease Control's plan for responding to an influenza pandemic. According to the new pandemic phases of WHO, we set up the 4 national levels of preparedness and made guidelines for preventing and control the epidemics in each phase. And also we described the future plans to antiviral stockpiles and pandemic vaccine development.