• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data. Methods: The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild's conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates. Results: Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche. Conclusions: Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2024

A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.321-333
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• 2007

In the proportional hazard model with the beta process prior, the posterior computation with the discrete approximation is considered. The time period of interest is partitioned by small intervals. On each partitioning interval, the likelihood is approximated by that of a binomial experiment and the beta process prior is by a beta distribution. Consequently, the posterior is approximated by that of many independent binomial model with beta priors. The analysis of the leukemia remission data is given as an example. It is illustrated that the length of the partitioning interval affects the posterior and one needs to be careful in choosing it.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.62-72
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• 2019

Due to the difficulties in forecasting the intensity and the source location of tsunami the countermeasures prepared based on the deterministic approach fail to work properly. Thus, there is an increasing demand of the tsunami hazard analyses that consider the uncertainties of tsunami behavior in probabilistic approach. In this paper a fundamental study is conducted to perform the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) for the tsunamis that caused the disaster to the east coast of Korea. A logic tree approach is employed to consider the uncertainties of the initial free surface displacement and the tsunami height distribution along the coast. The branches of the logic tree are constructed by reflecting characteristics of tsunamis that have attacked the east coast of Korea. The computational time is nonlinearly increasing if the number of branches increases in the process of extracting the fractile curves. Thus, an improved method valid even for the case of a huge number of branches is proposed to save the computational time. The performance of the discrete weight distribution method proposed first in this study is compared with those of the conventional sorting method and the Monte Carlo method. The present method is comparable to the conventional methods in its accuracy, and is efficient in the sense of computational time when compared with the conventional sorting method. The Monte Carlo method, however, is more efficient than the other two methods if the number of branches and the number of fault segments increase significantly.

• Survey Research
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.81-101
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• 2010

The purposes of the present study were to investigate the effects of individual, family, and school factors on the onset of adolescents' violence behaviors. For these goals, we applied discrete-time survival analysis to the Korean Youth Panel Survey. According to the estimated hazard function, the likelihood of onset of adolescents' violence behavior was low during elementary school years and increasing sharply from middle school years. Results showed that gender, self-esteem, aggressiveness, broken home, parental abuse, and the number of delinquent friends were significant determinants of the onset of adolescents' violence behaviors. Findings from this study suggest the need to focus on the significant determinants and consider various prevention programs.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.311-320
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• 2019

Obelisks are historical monuments. There are several obelisks dating from ancient Egyptian period, located around various parts of the world. The city of Istanbul is a home to the Obelisk of Theodosius at the Hippodrome. Due to the expectation of a large event in the near future, the evaluation of seismic response of the Obelisk gets importance. Therefore, in this study structural dynamic behavior of the Obelisk was investigated using discrete element approach. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed using real and synthetic time series. Real and synthetic ground motions analyzed from this study seems consistent with the earthquake hazard levels that would be expected at the site of the Obelisk in the occurrence of an event of moment magnitude above 7.0 near Istanbul. Results are evaluated in terms of variation of displacement, relative displacement of adjacent blocks, normal stress and shear stress in time.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.459-467
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• 2021

This study examined the onset of adolescent delinquency through discrete-time survival analysis. Our analysis used data obtained from the Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey, and included 2,277 middle school students. The main analysis results are as follows. First, the hazard probability for the occurrence of delinquency was the highest at 16.6% in the second year of middle school, slightly decreased in the third year of middle school, but continued to increase as the overall grade increased. Second, adolescent psychological and emotional factors have significantly affected the onset of delinquency. Third, negative parenting methods had a significant impact on delinquency, but neglect was not significant. Fourth, having delinquent friends was an important factor affecting the status of delinquency. Fifth, among the school factors, adjustment of learning activities, adjustment of school rules, and adjustment of friendship relations influenced the status of delinquency, while the adjustment of teacher relations was not significant. As early intervention is important to prevent juvenile delinquency, education and support for establishing healthy relationships are needed.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.59 no.3
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• pp.147-174
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• 2007

This study examines how path dependency of working poor labor market segmented from the primary and the secondary labor market affects employment and quality of employment of working poor. It Further examines how path dependency makes working poor to remain in the labor market and makes it difficult for them to escape from a vicious poverty cycle. Data is based on the $3{\sim}7th$ Korea Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). Markov's transition probability and discrete-time hazard analysis are used for analysis. This study finds that Korea labor market is divided into three parts; the primary labor market, the secondary labor market and the working poor labor market. The proportion of employed poor has been reduced, but the proportion of non economically-active working poor has been increased and has become the main group among the working poor. This shows that labor demand of working poor is fundamentally lacking and there are structural barriers that block working poor's employment itself. The regression analysis shows that the longer working poor labor market participation is, the lower poverty-exit rate. This is an evidence of vicious poverty cycle that the poor have little chance to exit from working poor labor market, once they step into it. Therefore, the longer their participation in poor labor market, the more likely they would move only within the closed working poor labor market. Consequently, it is necessary to fundamentally reform labor market structure and to alleviate negative perception and discrimination about the poor labor while activating labor demand.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.21-35
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• 1997

The natural convection and combined heat transfer induced by fire in a rectangular enclosure is numerically studied. The model for this numerical analysis is partially opened right wall. The solution procedure includes the standard k-$\varepsilon$ model for turbulent flow and the discrete ordinates method (DOM) is used for the calculation of radiative heat transfer equation. In numerical study, SIMPLE algorithm is applied for fluid flow analysis, and the investigations of combustion gas induced by fire is performed by FAST model of HAZARD I program. In this study, numerical simulation on the combined naturnal convection and radiation is carried out in a partial enclosure filled with absorbed-emitted gray media, but is not considered scattering problem. The streamlines, isothermal lines, average radiation intensity and kinetic energy are compared the results of pure convection with those of the combined convection-radiation, the combined heat transfer. Comparing the results of pure convection with those of the combined convection-radiation, the combined heat transfer analysis shows the stronger circulation than those of the pure convection. Three different locations of heat source are considered to observe the effect of heat source location on the heat transfer phenomena. As the results, the circulation and the heat transfer in the left region from heating block are much more influenced than those in the right region. It is also founded that the radiation effect cannot be neglected in analyzing the building in fire. And as the results of combustion gas analysis from FAST model, it is found that O2 concentration is decreased according to time. While CO and CO2 concentration are rapidly increased in the beginning(about 100sec), but slowly decreased from that time on.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.65 no.3
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• pp.183-206
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• 2013

Using Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (wave 1~11) database, this study analyzed the poverty duration of the poor as a whole and by households' characteristics. For this purpose, I first estimated poverty exit rates and reentry rates applying discrete-time hazard model to the sample, and then calculated poverty duration combining these two probability rates. The results show that about a half of poor households are transitory (short-term) poor with 1~2 years of poverty duration. A quarter is chronic (long-term) poor lasting for 5 or more years of poverty duration. The remained quarter can be categorized as the recurrent or mid-term poor. The socioeconomic characteristics of households greatly affect poverty duration. Long-term poverty is prevalent among female-head households, elderly households, single households, or households headed by a person with a lower level of education. If households' heads do not work, or work as temporary or daily-employed workers, the poverty duration tends to be longer. The findings suggest that the poor consist of various social classes with different characteristics. Efficient anti-poverty policy should be based on thoroughly identifying the specific characteristics and needs of each class.