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Discrete-Time Survival Analysis of the Determinants of the Onset of Adolescents' Status Delinquency

비연속시간 생존분석을 활용한 청소년의 최초 지위비행에 대한 영향요인 분석

  • Yun, Hongju (Department of Education, Chuncheon National University of Education)
  • 윤홍주 (춘천교육대학교 교육학과)
  • Received : 2020.10.30
  • Accepted : 2021.02.05
  • Published : 2021.02.28
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Abstract

This study examined the onset of adolescent delinquency through discrete-time survival analysis. Our analysis used data obtained from the Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey, and included 2,277 middle school students. The main analysis results are as follows. First, the hazard probability for the occurrence of delinquency was the highest at 16.6% in the second year of middle school, slightly decreased in the third year of middle school, but continued to increase as the overall grade increased. Second, adolescent psychological and emotional factors have significantly affected the onset of delinquency. Third, negative parenting methods had a significant impact on delinquency, but neglect was not significant. Fourth, having delinquent friends was an important factor affecting the status of delinquency. Fifth, among the school factors, adjustment of learning activities, adjustment of school rules, and adjustment of friendship relations influenced the status of delinquency, while the adjustment of teacher relations was not significant. As early intervention is important to prevent juvenile delinquency, education and support for establishing healthy relationships are needed.

본 연구는 청소년의 최초 지위비행 발생시점을 비연속 생존분석을 통해 규명하고, 최초 지위비행에 미치는 영향요인을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 분석은 한국아동청소년패널조사(Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey)의 중1패널 5개년 자료를 활용하였으며, 분석 대상 학생 수는 2,277명(남학생 1,126명, 여학생 1,151명)이다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 최조 지위비행 발생에 대한 위험확률은 중2때 16.6%로 가장 높았으며, 중3때는 다소 감소하였으나 전반적으로 학년이 높아지면서 지속적으로 증가하였다. 둘째, 우울, 공격성과 같은 청소년의 심리, 정서 요인이 최초 지위비행 시점에 유의하게 영향을 미쳤다. 셋째, 부모의 부정적 양육방식인 학대는 비행에 유의한 영향을 미친 반면 방임은 유의하지 않았다. 넷째, 청소년 주변의 비행친구는 최초 지위비행에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인이었다. 다섯째, 학교요인 중 학습활동 적응, 학교규칙 적응, 교우관계 적응은 지위비행에 영향을 미친 반면 교사관계 적응은 유의하지 않았다. 청소년의 최초 지위비행에 대한 발생시점과 영향요인을 분석한 결과 청소년의 지위비행 예방을 위해 초기 개입이 중요하며, 따라서 이에 대한 적절한 교육과 지원이 필요하다.

Keywords

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