• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.425-432
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• 2009

The construction industry has been a main pillar and serves as a regulator of the Hong Kong economy. Subsequently, the fluctuations in the level of construction output can induce significant rippling effects to the economy. The Asian Financial Crisis started in 1997 and the SARS outbreak in 2003 both introduced major challenges and impacts to the Hong Kong economy and consequently the construction sector. Such decline in the importance of construction has suggested a possible structural change in the sector. It is worth investigating the driving forces behind the construction demand and see if they have changed after the heavy impacts in the past decade. The above considerations have, therefore, been the motivation of the present study to model the Hong Kong residential construction demand through multiple regression technique which can identify the significant influencing factors to the residential demand. The residential construction is studied as it constitutes a significant portion of the total construction volume. The residential sector has great influence to the general economy of Hong Kong. It is found that the underlying market structure and the driving factors for Hong Kong residential demand before and after the Asian Economic Crisis and SARS outbreak are different, suggesting that the residential construction sector or even the larger construction industry may have undergone a major structural change as Hong Kong's economy approaches maturity. It is also observed that the past literatures on construction demand are mostly focusing on predicting demand under a stable economic environment. Hence, it is worth examining if it is possible to model during economic hardship when the residential sector fluctuate dramatically under different external impacts, such as the recent global financial tsunami.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.925-945
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• 2000

This paper analyses the impact of energy-saving investment on Greenhouse gas emissions using a model of energy demand in Korea. SUR method was employed to estimate the demand equation. The econometric estimates provide information about the energy price divisia index, sector income, and energy saving-investment elasticities of energy demand. Except for energy price divisia, the elasticities of each variable are statistically significant. Also, the price and substitution elasticities of each energy price are similar to the results reported by the previous studies. The energy-saving investment is statistically significant and elasticities of each sector is inelastic. Using the coefficient of energy-saving investment and carbon transmission coefficient, the amount of reduction of energy demand and the reduction of carbon emissions can be estimated. The simulation is performed with the scenario that the energy-saving investment increase by 10~50%, keeping up with Equipment Investment Plan of 30% increase in energy-saving investment by 2000. The results show that the reduction of energy demand measured as 11.2% based upon 1995's level of the energy demand, in industrial sector. Accordingly, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 11.3% based upon 1995's level of the carbon emissions in industrial sector.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.91-104
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 통합모형인 GCAM을 활용한 국내수송부문을 모델링에 대해 논의한다. GCAM은 IPCC 5차 보고서 평가에도 활용된, 국제적으로 널리 쓰이는 모형이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이를 국내수송부문에 그대로 적용하는 데 상당한 문제가 있다. 첫째, GCAM의 기준년도(2010년) 수송 서비스수요가 국가통계와 일치하지 않다는 점. 둘째, 수송부문 시뮬레이션 결과가 관련 부문별 서비스수요의 과거추이를 제대로 반영하고 못하고 있다는 점이다. GCAM을 활용한 국내 수송부문 모델링에서 가장 중요하게 영향을 미치는 수송서비스수요 항등식을 상세히 점검함으로써, 기준년도의 서비스수요를 국가통계와 일치시키도록 노력하였다. 또 GCAM의 시뮬레이션 결과가 과거 통계추이를 제대로 반영할 수 있도록 기존모형을 점검, 수정하였다. 점검 및 수정결과, 기존 GCAM의 시뮬레이션 결과와 어떤 부분에서 문제가 있는지, 또 수송부문별 과거 서비스 수요의 추이가 어떻게 제대로 반영되고 있는지를 상세히 보고하였다. 본 연구는 향후 수송부문의 정책, 기술평가 및 온실가스저감 대책 마련 등을 위한 시나리오 분석의 기본분석도구로 유용하게 쓰일 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.45-56
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• 1983

This paper presents a generalized fuel choice model in which restrictive constraints on cross-price coefficients as Baughman-Joskow-FEA Logit Model need not be imposed, but all demand elasticities are uniquely determined. The model is applied to estimating aggregate energy demand and fuel choices for the residential and commercial sector. The structural equations are estimated by a generalized least squares procedure using national-level EPB, KDI, BK, KRIS, MOER data for 1965 and 1980, and other related reports. The econometric results support the argument that “third-price” and “fourth-price” coefficients should not be constrained in estimating relative market share models. Furthermore, by using this fuel choice model, it has forecasted energy demands by fuel sources in, the residential and commercial sector until 1991. The results are turned out good estimates to compare with existing demands forecasted from other institutes.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.297-318
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• 2006

우리나라의 천연가스는 전량 해외로부터 수입하고 있으며, 도시가스와 발전용으로 나뉘어 사용되고 있다. 도시가스의 사용량은 빠른 속도로 늘어나고 있는 반면에, 발전용 가스가격을 통한 횡적보조 정책의 결과로 발전용 가스수요는 비중이 낮은 상태에 머무르고 있다. 이는 가스발전이 기저부하용으로 사용되고 있는 외국의 사례와 매우 상이한 결과라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 전원믹스를 둘러싼 제반 환경이 급속하게 변화하고 있음에 주목하여 천연가스 발전의 잠재적인 성장 추이를 조망해 보기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 미래의 변화하는 환경을 시나리오로 작성하여 전원계획 기법에 의존하여 분석을 시도한다. 시나리오는 가설적이지만 현실적인 조건을 제시하는데 중점을 두었다. 원자력발전과 유연탄 그리고 천연가스 가격의 움직임에 대한 조건을 변화시키는 경우 늘어날 수 있는 발전용 천연가스의 잠재량을 시뮬레이션하였다. 에너지 믹스와 관련하여 현실적으로 개연성이 매우 높은 가설적 상황을 조건으로 하는 경우에 미래의 발전부문 천연가스의 잠재적 소요량은 매우 큰 폭으로 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 현재의 계획에 비하여 400~500만 톤 정도 늘어날 것으로 전망되었다. 몇 가지 개연성이 높은 조건을 완화시키게 되면 빠른 속도로 수요가 늘어날 수 있음을 보여주고 있다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권6호
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• pp.946-954
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• 2016

Energy industry is undergoing a paradigm shift in customer participation in the smartgrid. Customers traditionally consume electrical power. But nowadays not only do they generate electricity from private distributed generations, they can participate in demand response programs with their negawatt power which means a theoretical unit of power representing an amount of energy saved. Therefore development of decision-making criteria for electric load aggregation becomes a greater consideration as an amount of energy saved from demand response resources increases. This paper proposes load aggregators' decision-making criteria in the industrial sector where it made up the largest portion in demand response portfolio in order to assure reliability performance for demand response resources.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.23-47
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• 2005

This study is performed the multinomial logistic regression with the officials needs level about a component of knowledge administration for drawing a demand estimation model in the knowledge administration activities. This study is not that an activity and domain of knowledge administration is to apply and to operate uniformly it in public sector, one is suggested an application with a demand diagnose of knowledge administration in order to saw a course of the knowledge administration programs to suit a function and role of public administration. A result of this study is that an activity and domain of the knowledge administration is different from a component of it namely, knowledge creating, knowledge organizing, knowledge sharing and distribution, knowledge utility, and knowledge store. And the officials individual characteristics, administration agency, a kind of business, and a function and role of work are different from demand of knowledge administration. Also, the practical use of KMS (knowledge management system) is not so high in public sector. Accordingly, the tools of knowledge administration will deliberate on a consolidation with the existing system in the device.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.531-537
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• 1999

This paper presents the evaluaton procedures and the estimation model for DSM potential on commercial sector in Korea. In general, the evaluation process of the potential savings for DSM measures or programs consists of baseline electricity consumption forecast and potential evaluation such as technical potential(TP), economic potnetial(EP), and achievable potential(AP). A library of energy conservation measures applicable to each end-use or apparatus is developed, and energy savings and other factors are applied to the baseline demand estimates of consumption to produce potential savings estimates. The purpose of this paper is to establish the evaluation process of those DSM potential for commercial sector. In case study, we applied it to commercial sector for horizon years by end-use.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.79-104
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• 2002

A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused on the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies “one car per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990 - 1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.849-864
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• 2022

본 연구는 에너지 및 환경경제학에서 기초 데이터로 많이 활용되는 산업연관표에서 특정 부문이 하부 부문들로 분리되는 경우 새로운 산업연관표를 추계하는 과정을 제시하였다. 보편적으로 산업연관표 추계에 이용되는 RAS 방법은 새로운 산업연관표의 부문별 생산액, 중간투입계, 중간수요계의 정보를 반드시 필요로 하지만, 많은 경우에 부문별 중간수요계 정보를 확보하기 어렵다는 문제가 있다. 본 연구는 특정 부문이 하부 부문들로 분리되는 상황에서 부문별 중간수요계 정보를 사용하지 않고도 새로운 산업연관표를 추계할 수 있는 과정을 제시하였다. 핵심 아이디어는 분리 후 산업연관표의 많은 원소들의 값이 분리 전 산업연관표의 원소들 값과 같다는 점과 분리 후 부문들의 원소 합이 분리 전 부문의 원소 값과 같다는 점이다. 중간수요계 정보 대신에 이들 정보를 이용해서 부문 분리 후의 산업연관표에 대한 중간거래행렬이나 투입계수행렬을 추계하는 과정을 제시하였다. 소규모 시뮬레이션 결과, 본 연구가 제시한 과정은 투입계수행렬의 경우 평균 약 11.23%의 추정 오차를 가지며 이것은 중간수요계 정보를 활용하는 RAS의 11.30%의 평균 추정 오차보다 작은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 여러 선행연구들에서 추가 정보를 활용하는 것이 활용하지 않는 것보다 추정 성과를 항상 향상시키지 않는 것으로 나타났기 때문에, 본 연구의 방법을 현실에 적용하기 위해서는 다양한 시뮬레이션 연구가 필요하다고 판단된다.