• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand prediction

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Planning ESS Managemt Pattern Algorithm for Saving Energy Through Predicting the Amount of Photovoltaic Generation

  • Shin, Seung-Uk;Park, Jeong-Min;Moon, Eun-A
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.20-23
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    • 2019
  • Demand response is usually operated through using the power rates and incentives. Demand management based on power charges is the most rational and efficient demand management method, and such methods include rolling base charges with peak time, sliding scaling charges depending on time, sliding scaling charges depending on seasons, and nighttime power charges. Search for other methods to stimulate resources on demand by actively deriving the demand reaction of loads to increase the energy efficiency of loads. In this paper, ESS algorithm for saving energy based on predicting the amount of solar power generation that can be used for buildings with small loads not under electrical grid.

Development of a Platform Using Big Data-Based Artificial Intelligence to Predict New Demand of Shipbuilding (선박 신수요 예측을 위한 빅데이터 기반 인공지능 알고리즘을 활용한 플랫폼 개발)

  • Lee, Sangwon;Jung, Inhwan
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2019
  • Korea's shipbuilding industry is in a critical condition due to changes in the domestic and international environment. To overcome this crisis, preemptive development of products and technologies through prediction of new demand for ships is necessary. The goal of this research is to develop an artificial intelligence algorithm based on ship big data in order to predict new demand for ships. We intend to develop a big data analytics platform specialized in predicting ship demand and to utilize the forecast results of new ship demand through data analysis for planning/development of new products. By doing so, the development of sustainable new business models for equipment and equipment manufacturers will create new growth engines for shipyard and shipbuilders. Furthermore, it is expected that shipbuilders will be able to create business cases based on measurable performance, plan market-oriented products and services, and continuously achieve innovation that has high market destructive power.

Improvement Method of Peak Load Forecasting for Mortor-use Distribution Transformer by Readjustment of Demand Factor (호당 수용률 조정을 통한 동력용 배전 변압기 최대부하 예측 개선 방안)

  • Park, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Chul;Lee, Hee-Tea;Yun, Sang-Yun;Park, Chang-Ho;Lee, Young-Suk
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.11b
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    • pp.41-43
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    • 2002
  • The contracted electric power and the demand factor of customers are used to predict the peak load in distribution transformers. The conventional demand factor was determined more than ten years ago. The contracted electric power and power demand have been increased. Therefore, we need to prepare the novel demand factor that appropriates at present. In this paper, we modify the demand factor to improve the peak load prediction of distribution transformers. To modify the demand factor, we utilize the 169 data acquisition devices for sample distribution transformers in winter, spring summer. And, the peak load currents were measured by the case studies using the actual load data, through which we verified that the proposed demand factors were correct than the conventional factors. A newly demand factor will be used to predict the peak load of distribution transformers.

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Demand Forecasting for B2B Electronic Products : The Case of Personal Computer Market (B2B 전자제품 수요예측 모형 : PC시장 사례)

  • Moon, Jeongwoong;Chang, Namsik;Cho, Wooje
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.185-197
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    • 2015
  • As the uncertainty of demand in B2B electronics market has increased, firms need a strong method to estimate the market demand. An accurate prediction on the market demand is crucial for a firm not to overproduce or underproduce its goods, which would influence the performance of the firm. However, it is complicated to estimate the demand in a B2B market, particularly for the private sector, because firms are very diverse in terms of size, industry, and types of business. This study proposes both qualitative and quantitative demand forecasting approaches for B2B PC products. Four different measures for predicting PC products in B2B market with consideration of the different PC uses-personal work, common work, promotion, and welfare-are developed as the qualitative model's input variables. These measures are verified by survey data collected from experts in 139 firms, and can be applied when individual firms estimate the demand of PC goods in a B2B market. As the quantitative approach, the multiple regression model is proposed and it includes variables of region, type of industry, and size of the firm. The regression model can be applied when the aggregated demand for overall domestic PC market needs to be estimated.

Prediction of pollution loads in the Geum River upstream using the recurrent neural network algorithm

  • Lim, Heesung;An, Hyunuk;Kim, Haedo;Lee, Jeaju
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to predict the water quality using the RNN (recurrent neutral network) and LSTM (long short-term memory). These are advanced forms of machine learning algorithms that are better suited for time series learning compared to artificial neural networks; however, they have not been investigated before for water quality prediction. Three water quality indexes, the BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), COD (chemical oxygen demand), and SS (suspended solids) are predicted by the RNN and LSTM. TensorFlow, an open source library developed by Google, was used to implement the machine learning algorithm. The Okcheon observation point in the Geum River basin in the Republic of Korea was selected as the target point for the prediction of the water quality. Ten years of daily observed meteorological (daily temperature and daily wind speed) and hydrological (water level and flow discharge) data were used as the inputs, and irregularly observed water quality (BOD, COD, and SS) data were used as the learning materials. The irregularly observed water quality data were converted into daily data with the linear interpolation method. The water quality after one day was predicted by the machine learning algorithm, and it was found that a water quality prediction is possible with high accuracy compared to existing physical modeling results in the prediction of the BOD, COD, and SS, which are very non-linear. The sequence length and iteration were changed to compare the performances of the algorithms.

A neural network model to assess the hysteretic energy demand in steel moment resisting frames

  • Akbas, Bulent
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2006
  • Determining the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity and level of damage of the structure to a predefined earthquake ground motion is a highly non-linear problem and is one of the questions involved in predicting the structure's response for low-performance levels (life safe, near collapse, collapse) in performance-based earthquake resistant design. Neural Network (NN) analysis offers an alternative approach for investigation of non-linear relationships in engineering problems. The results of NN yield a more realistic and accurate prediction. A NN model can help the engineer to predict the seismic performance of the structure and to design the structural elements, even when there is not adequate information at the early stages of the design process. The principal aim of this study is to develop and test multi-layered feedforward NNs trained with the back-propagation algorithm to model the non-linear relationship between the structural and ground motion parameters and the hysteretic energy demand in steel moment resisting frames. The approach adapted in this study was shown to be capable of providing accurate estimates of hysteretic energy demand by using the six design parameters.

Demand Analysis of Fresh-fish in the Urban Communities (도시지역에 있어서 선어의 수요분석 -육류와의 대체관계를 중심으로-)

  • 김수관
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.114-130
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    • 1984
  • The structure of food demand is being changed according to the improvement of living standard. Moreover, the intake of animal protein is stepping up. This paper considers how much fresh-fish is consumed as source of animal protein and what extent fresh-fish have substitutive relation for meat with special reference to the change of income and price of fresh-fish and meat. And it is thought to be important work to estimate demand of fresh-fish in attemps to the prediction of food consume pattern and fishing industries in the future. For this estimation, the substitutive relation of fresh-fish and meat is essentially studied. The main conclusions of this study can be drawn as follows: 1. Fresh-fish and meat have substitutive relation on price axis. By the way, increase in demand of A (fresh-fish which have comparatively low price) can be expected according to the low of it's price against meat, but B (fresh-fish wihich have comparatively middle-high price) have peculiar demand without substitutive relation for meat. 2. Demand of A and B rise according to the income increases. 3. It is not sufficient to explain substutive relation of fresh-fish and meat without income variable. 4. Income increases bring about the more increase in demand of B than A. By the way, price increases bring about the decrease of it's consume expenditure, but A have fundamental demand as the source of animal protein. 5. In future, the intake of animal protein will step up. By the way, meat will occupy the more portion of the source of animal protein than fresh-fish.

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A Study on Predicting the demand for Public Shared Bikes using linear Regression

  • HAN, Dong Hun;JUNG, Sang Woo
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2022
  • As the need for eco-friendly transportation increases due to the deepening climate crisis, many local governments in Korea are introducing shared bicycles. Due to anxiety about public transportation after COVID-19, bicycles have firmly established themselves as the axis of daily transportation. The use of shared bicycles is spread, and the demand for bicycles is increasing by rental offices, but there are operational and management difficulties because the demand is managed under a limited budget. And unfortunately, user behavior results in a spatial imbalance of the bike inventory over time. So, in order to easily operate the maintenance of shared bicycles in Seoul, bicycles should be prepared in large quantities at a time of high demand and withdrawn at a low time. Therefore, in this study, by using machine learning, the linear regression algorithm and MS Azure ML are used to predict and analyze when demand is high. As a result of the analysis, the demand for bicycles in 2018 is on the rise compared to 2017, and the demand is lower in winter than in spring, summer, and fall. It can be judged that this linear regression-based prediction can reduce maintenance and management costs in a shared society and increase user convenience. In a further study, we will focus on shared bike routes by using GPS tracking systems. Through the data found, the route used by most people will be analyzed to derive the optimal route when installing a bicycle-only road.

New Prediction of the Number of Charging Electric Vehicles Using Transformation Matrix and Monte-Carlo Method

  • Go, Hyo-Sang;Ryu, Joon-Hyoung;Kim, Jae-won;Kim, Gil-Dong;Kim, Chul-Hwan
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.451-458
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    • 2017
  • An Electric Vehicle (EV) is operated with the electric energy of a battery in place of conventional fossil fuels. Thus, a suitable charging infrastructure must be provided to expand the use of electric vehicles. Because the battery of an EV must be charged to operate the EV, expanding the number of EVs will have a significant influence on the power supply and demand. Therefore, to maintain the balance of power supply and demand, it is important to be able to predict the numbers of charging EVs and monitor the events that occur in the distribution system. In this paper, we predict the hourly charging rate of electric vehicles using transformation matrix, which can describe all behaviors such as resting, charging, and driving of the EVs. Simulation with transformation matrix in a specific region provides statistical results using the Monte-Carlo Method.

A Study on Daily Water Demand Prediction Model (급수량(給水量) 단기(短期) 수요예측(需要豫測)에 대한 연구(硏究))

  • Koo, Jayoug;Koizwui, Akirau;Inakazu, Toyono
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 1997
  • In this study, we examined the structural analysis of water demand fluctuation for water distribution control of water supply network. In order to analyze for the length of stationary time series, we calculate autocorrelation coefficient of each case equally divided data size. As a result, it was found that, with the data size of around three months, any case could be used as stationary time series. we analyze cross-correlation coefficient between the daily water consumption's data and primary influence factors. As a result, we have decided to use weather conditions and maximum temperature as natural primary factors and holidays as a social factor. Applying the multiple ARIMA model, we obtains an effective model to describe the daily water demand prediction. From the forecasting result, even though we forecast water distribution quantity of the following year, estimated values well express the flctuations of measurements. Thus, the suitability of the model for practical use can be confirmed. When this model is used for practical water distribution control, water distribution quantity for the following day should be found by inputting maximum temperature and weather conditions obtained from weather forecast, and water purification plants and service reservoirs should be operated based on this information while operation of pumps and valves should be set up. Consequently, we will be able to devise a rational water management system.

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