• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand prediction

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Demand Paging Method Using Improved Algorithms on Non-OS Embedded System (Non-OS 임베디드 시스템에서 개선된 알고리즘을 적용한 요구 페이징 기법)

  • Lew, Kyeung Seek;Jeon, Chang Kyu;Kim, Yong Deak
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we try to improve the performance of the demand paging loader suggested to use the demand paging way that is not based on operating system. The demand paging switching strategy used in the existing operating system can know the recently used pages by running multi-processing. Then, based on it, some page switching strategies have been made for the recently used pages or the frequently demanded pages. However, the strategies based on operating system cannot be applied in single processing that is not based on operating system because any context switching never occur on the single processing. So, this paper is trying to suggest the demand paging switching strategies that can be applied in paging loader running in single process. In the Return-Prediction-Algorithm, we saw the improved performance in the program that the function call occurred frequently in a long distance. And then, in the Most-Frequently-Used-Page-Remain-Algorithm, we saw the improved performance in the program that the references frequently occurred for the particular pages. Likewise, it had an enormous effect on keeping the memory reduction performance by the demand paging and reducing the running time delay at the same time.

Deep Learning Based Electricity Demand Prediction and Power Grid Operation according to Urbanization Rate and Industrial Differences (도시화율 및 산업 구성 차이에 따른 딥러닝 기반 전력 수요 변동 예측 및 전력망 운영)

  • KIM, KAYOUNG;LEE, SANGHUN
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2022
  • Recently, technologies for efficient power grid operation have become important due to climate change. For this reason, predicting power demand using deep learning is being considered, and it is necessary to understand the influence of characteristics of each region, industrial structure, and climate. This study analyzed the power demand of New Jersey in US, with a high urbanization rate and a large service industry, and West Virginia in US, a low urbanization rate and a large coal, energy, and chemical industries. Using recurrent neural network algorithm, the power demand from January 2020 to August 2022 was learned, and the daily and weekly power demand was predicted. In addition, the power grid operation based on the power demand forecast was discussed. Unlike previous studies that have focused on the deep learning algorithm itself, this study analyzes the regional power demand characteristics and deep learning algorithm application, and power grid operation strategy.

A Study on the AI Model for Prediction of Demand for Cold Chain Distribution of Drugs (의약품 콜드체인 유통 수요 예측을 위한 AI 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Hee-young Kim;Gi-hwan Ryu;Jin Cai ;Hyeon-kon Son
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.763-768
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, the existing statistical method (ARIMA) and machine learning method (Informer) were developed and compared to predict the distribution volume of pharmaceuticals. It was found that a machine learning-based model is advantageous for daily data prediction, and it is effective to use ARIMA for monthly prediction and switch to Informer as the data increases. The prediction error rate (RMSE) was reduced by 26.6% compared to the previous method, and the prediction accuracy was improved by 13%, resulting in a result of 86.2%. Through this thesis, we find that there is an advantage of obtaining the best results by ensembleing statistical methods and machine learning methods. In addition, machine learning-based AI models can derive the best results through deep learning operations even in irregular situations, and after commercialization, performance is expected to improve as the amount of data increases.

Proposal of new ground-motion prediction equations for elastic input energy spectra

  • Cheng, Yin;Lucchini, Andrea;Mollaioli, Fabrizio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.485-510
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    • 2014
  • In performance-based seismic design procedures Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-Spectral acceleration ($S_a$) are commonly used to predict the response of structures to earthquake. Recently, research has been carried out to evaluate the predictive capability of these standard Intensity Measures (IMs) with respect to different types of structures and Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) commonly used to measure damage. Efforts have been also spent to propose alternative IMs that are able to improve the results of the response predictions. However, most of these IMs are not usually employed in probabilistic seismic demand analyses because of the lack of reliable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). In order to define seismic hazard and thus to calculate demand hazard curves it is essential, in fact, to establish a GMPE for the earthquake intensity. In the light of this need, new GMPEs are proposed here for the elastic input energy spectra, energy-based intensity measures that have been shown to be good predictors of both structural and non-structural damage for many types of structures. The proposed GMPEs are developed using mixed-effects models by empirical regressions on a large number of strong-motions selected from the NGA database. Parametric analyses are carried out to show the effect of some properties variation, such as fault mechanism, type of soil, earthquake magnitude and distance, on the considered IMs. Results of comparisons between the proposed GMPEs and other from the literature are finally shown.

Future water quality analysis of the Anseongcheon River basin, Korea under climate change

  • Kim, Deokwhan;Kim, Jungwook;Joo, Hongjun;Han, Daegun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2019
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that recent extreme hydrological events would affect water quality and aggravate various forms of water pollution. To analyze changes in water quality due to future climate change, input data (precipitation, average temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed and sunlight) were established using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario suggested by the AR5 and calculated the future runoff for each target period (Reference:1989-2015; I: 2016-2040; II: 2041-2070; and III: 2071-2099) using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes (SLURP) model. Meteorological factors that affect water quality (precipitation, temperature and runoff) were inputted into the multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to analyze water quality data, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorus (T-P). Future water quality prediction of the Anseongcheon River basin shows that DO at Gongdo station in the river will drop by 35% in autumn by the end of the $21^{st}$ century and that BOD, COD and SS will increase by 36%, 20% and 42%, respectively. Analysis revealed that the oxygen demand at Dongyeongyo station will decrease by 17% in summer and BOD, COD and SS will increase by 30%, 12% and 17%, respectively. This study suggests that there is a need to continuously monitor the water quality of the Anseongcheon River basin for long-term management. A more reliable prediction of future water quality will be achieved if various social scenarios and climate data are taken into consideration.

Strain demand prediction of buried steel pipeline at strike-slip fault crossings: A surrogate model approach

  • Xie, Junyao;Zhang, Lu;Zheng, Qian;Liu, Xiaoben;Dubljevic, Stevan;Zhang, Hong
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.109-122
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    • 2021
  • Significant progress in the oil and gas industry advances the application of pipeline into an intelligent era, which poses rigorous requirements on pipeline safety, reliability, and maintainability, especially when crossing seismic zones. In general, strike-slip faults are prone to induce large deformation leading to local buckling and global rupture eventually. To evaluate the performance and safety of pipelines in this situation, numerical simulations are proved to be a relatively accurate and reliable technique based on the built-in physical models and advanced grid technology. However, the computational cost is prohibitive, so one has to wait for a long time to attain a calculation result for complex large-scale pipelines. In this manuscript, an efficient and accurate surrogate model based on machine learning is proposed for strain demand prediction of buried X80 pipelines subjected to strike-slip faults. Specifically, the support vector regression model serves as a surrogate model to learn the high-dimensional nonlinear relationship which maps multiple input variables, including pipe geometries, internal pressures, and strike-slip displacements, to output variables (namely tensile strains and compressive strains). The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are validated by numerical studies considering different effects caused by structural sizes, internal pressure, and strike-slip movements.

Machine Learning Based Capacity Prediction Model of Terminal Maneuvering Area (기계학습 기반 접근관제구역 수용량 예측 모형)

  • Han, Sanghyok;Yun, Taegyeong;Kim, Sang Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of air traffic flow management is to balance demand and capacity in the national airspace, and its performance relies on an accurate capacity prediction of the airport or airspace. This paper developed a regression model that predicts the number of aircraft actually departing and arriving in a terminal maneuvering area. The regression model is based on a boosting ensemble learning algorithm that learns past aircraft operational data such as time, weather, scheduled demand, and unfulfilled demand at a specific airport in the terminal maneuvering area. The developed model was tested using historical departure and arrival flight data at Incheon International Airport, and the coefficient of determination is greater than 0.95. Also, the capacity of the terminal maneuvering area of interest is implicitly predicted by using the model.

A Study on the Energy Usage Prediction and Energy Demand Shift Model to Increase Energy Efficiency (에너지 효율 증대를 위한 에너지 사용량 예측과 에너지 수요이전 모델 연구)

  • JaeHwan Kim;SeMo Yang;KangYoon Lee
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2023
  • Currently, a new energy system is emerging that implements consumption reduction by improving energy efficiency. Accordingly, as smart grids spread, the rate system by timing is expanding. The rate system by timing is a rate system that applies different rates by season/hour to pay according to usage. In this study, external factors such as temperature/day/time/season are considered and the time series prediction model, LSTM, is used to predict energy power usage data. Based on this energy usage prediction model, energy usage charges are reduced by analyzing usage patterns for each device and transferring power energy from the maximum load time to the light load time. In order to analyze the usage pattern for each device, a clustering technique is used to learn and classify the usage pattern of the device by time. In summary, this study predicts usage and usage fees based on the user's power data usage, analyzes usage patterns by device, and provides customized demand transfer services based on analysis, resulting in cost reduction for users.

Forecasting Market Demand of u-Transportation Vehicle Sensor OBU (u-Transportation UVS 단말기 시장수요예측)

  • Jeong, Eon-Su;Kim, Won-Kyu;Kim, Min-Heon;Kim, Byung-Jong;Kim, Song-Ju
    • Journal of The Institute of Information and Telecommunication Facilities Engineering
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.157-162
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    • 2009
  • This study's purpose is to forecast the market demand of UVS (u-Transportation Vehicle Sensor) OBU (On-board Unit) of the ubiquitous Transportation. Bass model, Logistic model, and Gompertz model were used for the forecasting market demand. Firstly, this research focused on the market size for the u-T OBU. All three models were used for the market size prediction and the average values were used. The Bass model were calibrated and the market demand for the UVS OBU of the u-Transportation system were estimated using this model.

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Chaotic Predictability for Time Series Forecasts of Maximum Electrical Power using the Lyapunov Exponent

  • Park, Jae-Hyeon;Kim, Young-Il;Choo, Yeon-Gyu
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.369-374
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    • 2011
  • Generally the neural network and the Fuzzy compensative algorithms are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with the characteristics of a nonlinear dynamic system, but, relatively, they have a few prediction errors. They also make long term forecasts difficult because of sensitivity to the initial conditions. In this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction and a time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov Exponent (L.E.) quantitatively. We compare simulated results with previous methods and verify that the present method is more practical and effective than the previous methods. We also obtain the hourly predictability of time series for power demand using the L.E. and evaluate its accuracy.