• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand estimation

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Estimation of BOD in wastewater treatment plant by using different ANN algorithms

  • BAKI, Osman Tugrul;ARAS, Egemen
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.455-462
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    • 2018
  • The measurement and monitoring of the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) play an important role in the planning and operation of wastewater treatment plants. The most basic method for determining biochemical oxygen demand is direct measurement. However, this method is both expensive and takes a long time. A five-day period is required to determine the biochemical oxygen demand. This study has been carried out in a wastewater treatment plant in Turkey (Hurma WWTP) in order to estimate the biochemical oxygen demand a shorter time and with a lower cost. Estimation was performed using artificial neural network (ANN) method. There are three different methods in the training of artificial neural networks, respectively, multi-layered (ML-ANN), teaching learning based algorithm (TLBO-ANN) and artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC-ANN). The input flow (Q), wastewater temperature (t), pH, chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (tP), total nitrogen (tN), and electrical conductivity of wastewater (EC) are used as the input parameters to estimate the BOD. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) values were used in evaluating performance criteria for each model. As a result of the general evaluation, the ML-ANN method provided the best estimation results both training and test series with 0.8924 and 0.8442 determination coefficient, respectively.

The Estimation of the Demand Function of Korean Beef and Imported Beef Cuts - Focusing in Consumers in the Metropolitan Area - (한우와 수입산 쇠고기의 부위별 수요함수 추정 - 수도권 소비자를 중심으로 -)

  • Nam, Kuk-Hyun;Choe, Young-Chan
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.387-403
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    • 2016
  • This paper estimated the demand function of the cuts of Korean beef and imported beef by using the consumer panel and retail price data from the Korean Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, and the weather data from the Korea Meteorological Administration with an log-log model and AIDS model. The results show that the preference for cuts of beef used for cooked soup, steamed dish, Changjorim are more elastic than cuts used for roasting when there is a change in price and income in the estimation of demand function of Korean beef. On the other hand, consumers respond sensitively with the demand of roasting part compared to steamed dish, Changjorim, soup when there is change in price and income in the estimation of demand function of imported beef. The results indicate that there is substitutional relationship between Korean beef and imported beef, because Korean beef cuts used for roasting can substitute for imported roasting part and the same relationship applies to steamed dish, soup, Changjorim. In addition, family number, family member, husband job, purchasing place, means of transportation, purchasing time, weather are statistically significant.

An Estimation of Korea's Import Demand Function for Fisheries Using Cointegration Analysis (공적분분석을 이용한 우리나라 수산물 수입함수 추정)

  • 김기수;김우경
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 1998
  • This paper tries to estimate Korea's import demand function for fisheries using cointegration analysis. The estimation function consists of one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries(FTIW) and two independent variables-relative price(RP) between importable and domestic products and real income(GDP). As it has been empirically found out that almost all of time series of macro-variables such as GDP, price index are nonstationary, existing studies which ignore this fact need to be reexamined. Conventional econometric method can not analyze nonstationary time series in level. To perform the analysis, time series should be differenciated until stationarity is guaranteed. Unfortunately, the difference method removes the long run element of data, and so leads to difficulties of interpretation. But according to new developed econometric theory, cointegration approach could solve these problems. Therefore this paper proceeds the estimation on the basis of cointegration analysis, because the quartly variables from 1988 to 1997 used in the model is found out to be nonstationary. The estimation results show that all of the variables are statistically significant. Therefore Korea's import demand for fisheries has been strongly affected by the variation of real income and the relative price.

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A Study on Improvement of Demand Estimation in Urban Railway through Segmentations of Station Influence Areas (역세권 세분화를 통한 도시철도 수요예측 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Sangmin;Chung, Sungbong;Kim, Sigon;Cho, Hangung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.673-678
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    • 2012
  • Accurate demand estimating process in the construction of urban railway is very important, and precise validation is required. Existing model formula in the 4 phase model is limited in the estimation of the demand the administrative boundary-based zone system reflects no spatial railway demand characteristics around railway stations. The purpose of this study is improving the accuracy of urban rail demand estimation through segmentations of station influence areas and modal split characteristics within the areas. According to the case analysis, it is possible to set up the ststion influence area with a radius of 500m in the urban region and 1,000m in the suburban. And eastablishing proper segmentations of the ststion influence area shows more accurate results to the real demand of railway stations.

Comparative Analysis on the Demand Estimation Method of Commercial Site: Focused on the Case of New Towns in Korea (상업용지 수요추정기법 비교분석 연구: 수도권 신도시 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Sang-Jun;Yoon, Jeong-Joong
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.343-355
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to propose reasonable improvements of demand estimation methods of commercial site through the case study. Thus, we investigated the problems and limitation of demand estimation methods and process applied to primary and secondary new towns in Korea. And we suggested the way to reduce error of demand estimation and to raise its objectivity. The result of case analysis is as follows; firstly, it was insufficient to consider location, hierarchy and change of land use like mixed-use development in commercial site. Secondly, improper comparable group or operated relevant index data in the same light were selected the aggregated unit requirement method such as comparative analogy method and planning guidelines. Thirdly, there were many cases that demand estimation value was amended arbitrarily, and it tends to occur a serious reliability problem. Therefore, to improve these problems and to make better use of demand estimation hereafter are required the sublation of arbitrary commercial sphere's settings, the making of comparative group considered development conditions, and putting forward objective revision basis.

Adjustment of Load Regression Coefficients and Demand-Factor for the Peak Load Estimation of Pole-Type Transformers (주상 변압기 최대부하 추정을 위한 부하상관계수 및 수용율 조정)

  • Yun, Sang-Yun;Kim, Jae-Chul;Park, Kyung-Ho;Moon, Jong-Fil;Lee, Jin;Park, Chang-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2004
  • This paper summarizes the research results of the load management for pole transformers done in 1997-1998 and 2000-2002. The purpose of the research is to enhance the accuracy of peak load estimation in pole transformers. We concentrated our effort on the acquisition of massive actual load data for modifying the load regression coefficients, which related to the peak load estimation of lamp-use customers, and adjusting the demand-factor coefficients, which used for the peak load prediction of motor-use customers. To enhance the load regression equations, the 264 load data acquisition devices are equipped to the sample pole transformers. For the modification of demand factor coefficients, the peak load currents are measured in each customer and pole transformer for 13 KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) distribution branch offices. Case studies for 50 sample pole transformers show that the proposed coefficients could reduce estimating error of the peak load for pole transformers, compared with the conventional one.

Power Demand Estimation of Consuming Facility using Orthogonal Polynomial Regression Model (직교 다항 회귀모델을 이용한 수용설비의 소비전력 추정)

  • 고희석;이충식;지봉호;김일중
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents in the rrethod power demand estimated of consuming facility algorithm using orthogonal polynomial regression rmdel. Estimation rmdel presented can use mathematical rrethod consists. of extrapolation and correlation rrethod, Computation tirre and capacity of presented rmdel was rmre economic than multiple regression rrodel because low-order equation can use in the high-order equation without sorre correction, and vice-versa. Therefore this rmthed can be very usefulness rmthed in the power demand estimation Fourth-order rrodel was very good armng this rrodel that was coJTJp)Sed the estimation rmdel of second, third and fourth-order. Power demand estimated result of consuming facility using correlation rrethod was good in the percentage error of about 2[%1 Also It was to verify efficiency and awroPJiation the estimated rmdel that estimation percentage error was about 1[%] in the oower demand estimated result of 1997.

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Development of A Direct Demand Estimation Model for Forecasting of Railroad Traffic Demand (철도수요예측을 위한 직접수요모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyo-Jong;Jung, Chan-Mook
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.2166-2178
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    • 2010
  • The Korea Transportation Database (KTDB) is used to obtain data on the origin and destination (OD) of inter-city travel, which are currently used in railroad planning when estimating traffic demand. The KTDB employs the trip assignment method, whereby the total traffic volume researched for inter-city travel in Korea is divided into road, rail and air traffic, etc. However, as regards rail travel, the railroad stations are not identical to the existing zones or the connector has not been established because there are several stations in one zone as such, certain problems with the applicable methods have been identified. Therefore, estimates of the volume of railroad traffic using the KTDB display low reliability compared to other modes of transportation. In this study, these problems are reviewed and analyzed, and use of the aggregate model method to estimate the direct demand for rail travel is proposed in order to improve the reliability of estimation. In addition, a method of minimizing error in traffic demand estimation for the railroad field is proposed via an analysis of the relationship between the aggregate model and various social-economic indicators including population, distances, numbers of industrial employees, numbers of automobiles, and the extension of roads between cities.

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Parameter Estimation of the Diffusion Model for Demand Side Management Monitoring System (DSM 모니터링을 위한 확산 모형의 계수 추정)

  • Kim, Jin-O;Choi, Cheong-Hun;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Lee, Chang-Ho;Kim, Chang-Seob
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.1183-1189
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to the following parameters; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameters precisely, there has been no empirical way in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints can be empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves and forecasted values of the peak for the high-efficient lighting. The feedback and nonlinear least-square parameter estimation methods used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and to predict the effect of DSM program.

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An Analysis of Call Demands of Two Squads In Kyonggi Provincial fire and Disaster Headquarters (경기도 소방재난본부에 소속된 두 구급대의 출동수요 분석)

  • Uhm, Tai-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2002
  • The purposes of this research which was conducted by surveying lost/added unit hours reports, unit hour demand analysis worksheets from prehospital care reports of two squads in Kyonggi Provincial Fire and Disaster Headquarters for 20 weeks (January 1, 2002 - May 20, 2002) are to get Unit Hour Utilizations. Call Demands such as Unit Hour Demand, Simple Average Demand, High Average Demand, Peak Average Demand, the High Actual Demand. The conclusions from this analysis were summarized as follows: (1) By revealing Unit Hour Produced 3223.9, Call Volume 964, Unit Hour Utilization 0.299 at the Squad A and Unit Hour Produced 3328.4, Call Volume 901, Unit Hour Utilization 0.271 at the Squad B induced Korean Squads to chance identification, definition, direction of Unit Hour Utilization. (2) By revealing Simple Average Demand 7.4 on Monday Tuesday, High Average Demand 9.6 on Tuesday Friday. Peak Average Demand 11.5 on Tuesday, the High Actual Demand 12 on Tuesday Wednesday at the Squad A and Simple Average Demand 6.8 on Sunday, High Average Demand 10.4 on Monday, Peak Average Demand 11.5 on Monday, the High Actual Demand 13 on Monday at the Squad B enabled Korean Squads to utilize System Status Management. (3) The Maximum Calls per Unit Hour were 115 for 23:00~23:59, the Minimum Calls per Unit Hour were 46 for 05:00~05:49 in two squads. The Maximum Calls per Unit Hour were 7.4 on Tuesday Saturday, the Minimum Calls per Unit Hour were 6.1 on Thursday at the Squad A. The Maximum Calls per Unit Hour were 7.3 on Monday Saturday, the Minimum Calls per Unit Hour were 5.6 on Thursday at the Squad B. (4) Analyzing demand for EMTs in the optimum emergency medical service of Korea, we have been able to utilize this Unit Hour Utilization in company with the established estimation methods such as international comparisons or the number of ambulances for scientific reasonable estimation. (5) These Call Demands which were limited to the demand time in this study will make us expect some following studies including demand time, demand time, demand map for Strategic Deployment.

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