Abstract
This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to the following parameters; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameters precisely, there has been no empirical way in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints can be empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves and forecasted values of the peak for the high-efficient lighting. The feedback and nonlinear least-square parameter estimation methods used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and to predict the effect of DSM program.
