• Title/Summary/Keyword: default rate

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Optimal Threshold from ROC and CAP Curves (ROC와 CAP 곡선에서의 최적 분류점)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Choi, Jin-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.911-921
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    • 2009
  • Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) and Cumulative Accuracy Profile(CAP) curves are two methods used to assess the discriminatory power of different credit-rating approaches. The points of optimal classification accuracy on an ROC curve and of maximal profit on a CAP curve can be found by using iso-performance tangent lines, which are based on the standard notion of accuracy. In this paper, we offer an alternative accuracy measure called the true rate. Using this rate, one can obtain alternative optimal threshold points on both ROC and CAP curves. For most real populations of borrowers, the number of the defaults is much less than that of the non-defaults, and in such cases the true rate may be more efficient than the accuracy rate in terms of cost functions. Moreover, it is shown that both alternative scores of optimal classification accuracy and maximal profit are the identical, and this single score coincides with the score corresponding to Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic used to test the homogeneous distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults.

A default-rate comparison of the construction and other industries using survival analysis method (생존분석기법을 이용한 건설업과 타 업종간의 부도율 비교 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Kyung;Oh, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.747-756
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    • 2010
  • With the recent recession, studies on the economy are actively being conducted throughout the industry. Based on the Small Business data registered in the Credit Guarantee Fund, we estimated the survival probability in the context of the survival analysis. We also analyzed the survival time for the construction and the other industries which are distinguished depending on the types of business and assets in the Small Business. The survival probability was estimated by using the life-table and the difference between the survival probabilities for the different types of business was described via the method of the Log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test. We found that the small business with over one billion asset has the highest survival probability and that with less than 1000 million asset showed the similar survival probability. In terms of types of business Wholesale and Retail trade industry and Services were relatively high in the survival probability than Light, Heavy, and the construction industries. Especially the construction industry showed the lowest survival probability. Most of the Small Business tend to increase in the hazard rate over time.

The Clinical Characteristics, Diagnosis, Treatment, and Outcomes of Patients with Tuberculosis at a Private University Hospital in Korea (국내 한 민간종합병원에서 결핵 환자의 진료 실태)

  • Jung, Young Ju;Park, I-Nae;Hong, Sang Bum;Oh, Yeon-Mok;Lim, Chae-Man;Lee, Sang Do;Koh, Younsuck;Kim, Woo Sung;Kim, Dong Soon;Kim, Won Dong;Shim, Tae Sun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.194-204
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    • 2006
  • Background : Even though tuberculosis (TB) is still a major public concern in Korea, there is little data on the management of TB patients and its outcomes in the private sector. This study evaluated the status of TB treatment in the private sector. Methods : Sixteen-hundred-sixty-six TB patients who were notified in a private university hospital from 2001 to 2002 were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into pulmonary ($TB_P$), extrapulmonary ($TB_E$), and combined ($TB_{P+E}$) groups, and were also divided into initial and retreatment groups. The clinical characteristics, diagnostic methods, treatment regimens, and outcomes were analyzed and compared. Results : The mean age of the 1,666 patients was 48.9 years and the male-to-female ratio was 1.3:1. The number of patients in the initial and retreatment groups of $TB_P$, and those of ($TB_E+TB_{P+E}$) were 809, 276, 480, 101, respectively. A bacteriological study was performed in 92.0% of cases, and a positive culture was confirmed in 58.1% and 31.7% of patients with TBP and ($TB_E+TB_{P+E}$), respectively (p<0.05). The AFB smear was positive in 45.4 % of the $TB_P$ patients. PCR was carried out in 60.4% of the ($TB_E+TB_{P+E}$) group. The MDR was detected in 14.0% of isolates. Overall, the treatment completion, default, and death rates were 70.2%, 13.5% and 1.9%, respectively. Conclusion : Even though the management of TB patients in a private hospital was satisfactory in terms of the national guidelines, the high default rate was is still a problem. Efforts to decrease the default rate either independently or in cooperation with the public sector will be needed.

Evaluation of Methane Generation Rate Constant(k) by Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emission in Small Scale Landfill (소규모 매립지에 대한 메탄발생속도상수(k) 산출 및 온실가스 발생량 평가)

  • Lee, Wonjae;Kang, Byungwook;Cho, Byungyeol;Lee, Sangwoo;Yeon, Ikjun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2014
  • In this study, greenhouse gas emission for small scale landfill (H and Y landfill) was investigated to deduce special the methane generation rate constant(k). To achieve the purpose, the data of physical composition was collected and amount of LFG emission was calculated by using FOD method suggested in 2006 IPCC GL. Also, amount of LFG emission was directly measured in the active landfill sites. By comparing the results, the methane generation rate constant(k), which was used as input variable in FOD method suggested in 2006 IPCC GL, was deduced. From the results on the physical composition, it was shown that the ranges of DOC per year in H (1997~2011) and Y (1994~2011) landfill sites were 13.16 %~23.79 % ($16.52{\pm}3.84%$) and 7.24 %~34.67 % ($14.56{\pm}7.30%$), respectively. The DOC results showed the differences with the suggested values (= 18 %) in 2006 IPCC GL. The average values of methane generation rate constant(k) from each landfill site were $0.0413yr^{-1}$ and $0.0117yr^{-1}$. The results of methane generation rate constant(k) was shown big difference with 2006 IPCC GL defualt value (k = 0.09). It was confirmed that calculation results of greenhouse gas emission using default value in 2006 IPCC GL show excessive output.

Dynamic Analysis and Design of Star Screen in Recycling Construction Plant (치차형 스크린의 선별 성능 향상을 위한 동적 해석과 설계 형상 변경)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hoon;Park, Jung-Hong;Moon, Byung-Young;Park, Yong-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.219-224
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    • 2010
  • Recycling issue for the construction wastes is gradually important to future society. Recently, a star screen has been developed to use for this purpose, however some modifications were needed to enhance the separation accuracy. The objective of study is to evaluate and predict separation ability by verifying the effect for the modified shapes of the screen part. Two analysis models of the screen part were established using commercial software ADAMS to simulate the dynamic interaction of waste particles. Results showed that spacer and gear shapes directly affected separation ability. The modified spacer shapes were much higher screening rate with comparison to default shape. Screening ability for the half number of gear type was greater than other types. Therefore, modification of the design of screen part will be required to achieve better separation ability.

Does Portfolio Quality Influence Financial Sustainability? A Case of Microfinance Institutions in Kenya

  • BITOK, Stephen K.;CHEBOI, Josephat Y.;KEMBOI, Ambrose
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between portfolio quality and financial sustainability of microfinance institutions in Kenya. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: The analysis was based on a panel dataset of 30 microfinance institutions for the period of 2010 to 2018. Data was obtained from the Microfinance information exchange (MIX) database, and it was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics with the aid of STATA. Based on the results of the Hausman test, the study adopted the fixed effect regression model to test the research hypothesis. Results: The study found that portfolio quality had a positive significant effect on financial sustainability of Microfinance institutions in Kenya (β= 0. 211; p-value < 0.05). For the control variables; firm age had a positive effect (β= 0.773; p-value <0.05), while firm size (β= -0. 749; p-value < 0.05) had a negative effect on financial sustainability. Conclusions: The study concluded that portfolio quality has an important influence on the financial sustainability of microfinance institution. The study recommends that managers of microfinance institutions should devise good collection policies to improve portfolio quality while lessening loan default rate. The portfolio quality may improve the overall profitability and enhance investor confidence in their strategic decision-making on refinancing.

Dynamic Service Assignment based on Proportional Ordering for the Adaptive Resource Management of Cloud Systems

  • Mateo, Romeo Mark A.;Lee, Jae-Wan
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.5 no.12
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    • pp.2294-2314
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    • 2011
  • The key issue in providing fast and reliable access on cloud services is the effective management of resources in a cloud system. However, the high variation in cloud service access rates affects the system performance considerably when there are no default routines to handle this type of occurrence. Adaptive techniques are used in resource management to support robust systems and maintain well-balanced loads within the servers. This paper presents an adaptive resource management for cloud systems which supports the integration of intelligent methods to promote quality of service (QoS) in provisioning of cloud services. A technique of dynamically assigning cloud services to a group of cloud servers is proposed for the adaptive resource management. Initially, cloud services are collected based on the excess cloud services load and then these are deployed to the assigned cloud servers. The assignment function uses the proposed proportional ordering which efficiently assigns cloud services based on its resource consumption. The difference in resource consumption rate in all nodes is analyzed periodically which decides the execution of service assignment. Performance evaluation showed that the proposed dynamic service assignment (DSA) performed best in throughput performance compared to other resource allocation algorithms.

Estimation of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from Livestock Agriculture in Korea (2011년도 축산부문 온실가스 인벤토리 산정 연구)

  • Yang, Seung-Hak;Choi, Dong-Yoon;Cho, Sung-Back;Hwang, Ok-Hwa;Park, Kyu-Hyun
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.139-146
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    • 2014
  • This research was conducted to examine the temporal methane ($CH_4$) and nitrous oxide ($N_2O$) emission trends in livestock agriculture from year 1990 to 2011 with Tier 1 national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory reporting method, which was related to efforts of decreasing GHG emissions and to achievement of voluntary GHG mitigation target. Methane emissions from enteric fermentation were calculated with default $CH_4$ emission factors of IPCC. Methane and $N_2O$ emissions from manure treatment processes were calculated with Tier 1 and mixture of Tier 1 and Tier 2 including $N_2O$ emission factors of manure treatment systems and nitrogen excretion rate of livestock, respectively. According to 2013 National GHG Inventory Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification report, GHG emission fluctuations from enteric fermentation and manure treatment processes were similarto livestock head fluctuation. GHG emissions from enteric fermentation were mainly affected by beef cattle including Hanwoo, while manure treatment processes were affected by various livestock.

A Study on Developing the Standardized Index of Evaluation for Upgrading the School Facilities (학교시설개선을 위한 평가지표개발에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Byung-Joon;Kim, Young-Suk;Chu, Beom
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.260-270
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    • 2012
  • The demographic and environmental changes such as the decrease of the population growth rate and the increase of the population of the senior citizens, which become issues of the modern society, are bringing numerous changes of many aspects like national economy, community, and culture. These social phenomena give impacts on the school facilities as well. Thus owing to the decrease of the number of the students, the number of the newly constructed schools has been decreased drastically, and moreover the merger of the schools cause many schools to be default. Meanwhile, the school facilities have been expanded into the functions of the local community centers, and the various educational activities demand the diversity and flexibility of the spaces. These factors add more burdens to the current schools. Therefore the school facilities are needed to adopt a flexible and relevant change necessary for using the spaces in accordance with the changed needs of the times, and are needed to reinvented continuously not to limit the educational and social activities because of the degradation of the school facilities. Yet because there are no proper criteria for doing the task, problems related to the relevance of the task and the unnecessary investment are raised. So through this study I tried to demonstrate the standardized index in terms of the sequential priority of upgrading the facilities among the schools.

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A Study on the Greenhouse Gas Emission and Reduction Measures of Domestic Magnesium Production Process (국내 마그네슘 생산공정의 온실가스 배출량 산정 및 감축방안 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Nam;Im, Jin-Ah;Yoo, Kyung-Seun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.219-230
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    • 2014
  • In this study, greenhouse gas emission of magnesium industry was estimated and the reduction potential of the greenhouse gas emission was evaluated with reduction technologies. Default value of IPCC guideline was used to calculate the greenhouse gas emission and $SF_6$ alternatives were considered in reduction potential. Import of magnesium ingot was 22,806 ton in 2013, which will be expected to increase to 81,700 ton with 20% rate in 2020. Magnesium ingot was consumed to produce magnesium alloy in diecasting process. Recently, commercial production of crown magnesium and magensium plate began. Based on ingot consumption, $CO_2$ emission of domestic magnesium industry was estimated to 504,000 ton, which is about 0.79% of domestic industrial emissions. Reduction potential of diecasting process was estimated to 489,320 ton by changing SF6 to alternative gases such as HFC-134a, Novec-612. Emission factor of Tier 3 level should be developed to enhance the accuracy of greeenhouse gas emission of magnesium industry.