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A default-rate comparison of the construction and other industries using survival analysis method  

Park, Jin-Kyung (Department of Statistics, Chonnam University)
Oh, Kwang-Ho (Department of Statistics, Chonnam University)
Kim, Min-Soo (Department of Statistics, Chonnam University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.21, no.4, 2010 , pp. 747-756 More about this Journal
Abstract
With the recent recession, studies on the economy are actively being conducted throughout the industry. Based on the Small Business data registered in the Credit Guarantee Fund, we estimated the survival probability in the context of the survival analysis. We also analyzed the survival time for the construction and the other industries which are distinguished depending on the types of business and assets in the Small Business. The survival probability was estimated by using the life-table and the difference between the survival probabilities for the different types of business was described via the method of the Log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test. We found that the small business with over one billion asset has the highest survival probability and that with less than 1000 million asset showed the similar survival probability. In terms of types of business Wholesale and Retail trade industry and Services were relatively high in the survival probability than Light, Heavy, and the construction industries. Especially the construction industry showed the lowest survival probability. Most of the Small Business tend to increase in the hazard rate over time.
Keywords
Hazard rate; log-rank test; small businesses; survival analysis; Wilcoxon test;
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