• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.87-96
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• 2024

This paper proposes a logistic multinomial regression approach to model the spatial cross-correlation of damage probabilities among different damage states in an expanded transportation network. Utilizing Bayesian theory and the multinomial logistic model, we analyze the damage states and probabilities of bridges while incorporating damage correlation. This correlation is considered both between bridges in a network and within each bridge's damage states. The correlation model of damage probabilities is applied to the seismic assessment of a portion of Tehran's transportation network, encompassing 26 bridges. Additionally, we introduce extra daily traffic time (EDTT) as an operational parameter of the transportation network and employ the shortest path algorithm to determine the path between two nodes. Our results demonstrate that incorporating the correlation of damage probabilities reduces the travel time of the selected network. The average decrease in travel time for the correlated case compared to the uncorrelated case, using two selected EDTT models, is 53% and 71%, respectively.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.39-60
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• 2010

In Turkey, majority of industrial facilities are composed of precast buildings. However, precast buildings have suffered extensive damage during Kocaeli and Duzce (1999) and Adana-Ceyhan (1998) earthquakes. Therefore, in this study, fragilities of existing building stock and damage probabilities of precast buildings were studied. For this purpose, building inventories were prepared and variation of structural parameters was determined by investigating the design project of 65 precast buildings constructed in Denizli, Turkey. Twelve analysis models which reflect the stiffness, strength and ductility properties of building inventory were constructed. After the definition of strain based displacement limits and corresponding damage states for buildings, displacement demands were calculated by using non linear time history analysis. During the analyses 360 strong ground motion records were used. Exceedence ratios of concerned damage limits was calculated by checking the displacement demands and then PGV based fragility curves were constructed. Efficiency of strength, stiffness and ductility properties of existing precast buildings were investigated by comparing the fragility curves. The results have shown that the most effective parameters that govern the damage probabilities of precast buildings are stiffness and ductility. It was also stated that the results of fragility analysis and damage and failure observations performed after Kocaeli and Duzce Earthquakes are compatible.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2003.09a
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• pp.344-351
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• 2003

In order to consider the characteristics of nonlinear dynamic responses of seismic isolated bridges reasonably, piers and isolators are modeled as a 2-DOF bilinear system. Then nonlinear time-history earthquake response analysis is accomplished many artificial input ground motions which were generated to reflect the characteristics of earthquakes. Damage probabilities and failure probabilities of each structural elements of the brides are calculated by using Monte-Carlo simulation method. Based on LCC evaluation considering various cost items of direct/indirect damage costs, the optimal design method of seismic isolated bridges is proposed. By using a sensitivity analysis about the design variables and a cost effectiveness evaluation in the viewpoint of LCC, the validity and the adequacy of proposed optimal design method are verified.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.52-62
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• 2013

A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.41-50
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• 2003

Nondestructive Damage Evaluation (NDE) techniques yield the damage location and its size from the modal characteristics of pre-damaged and post-damaged structures. To predict the system reliability of the aging structure, results from the NDE are integrated into the element/component failure probabilities. The element/component failure probabilities can be calculated from failure functions for each element/component with the aid of techniques from a structural reliability analysis. In this paper, a method to estimate the system reliability of a structure that is based on the reliabilities of elements/components in a given structure is presented. The efficacy of the combination of the nondestructive damage detection and the structural reliability evaluation is demonstrated using pre-damaged and post-damaged modal data obtained from numerical simulations of a rigid frame.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.249-256
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• 1999

This study is intended to propose a systematic procedure for the development of the reliability-based seismic safety and cost-effective Performance criteria for design and upgrading of long span PC bridges. In the paper, a set of cost function models for life cycle cost analysis of bridges is proposed. The total life cycle cost functions consist of initial cost and direct/indirect damage costs considering repair/replacement costs, human losses and property damage costs, road user costs, and indirect regional economic losses. The damage costs are successfully expressed in terms of Park-Ang median global damage indices and damage probabilities. The proposed approach is successfully applied to model bridges in both regions of a moderate seismicity area like Seoul, Korea and a high one like Tokyo, Japan. It may be expected that the proposed approach can be effectively utilized for the development of cost-effective performance criteria for design and upgrading of various types of bridges as well as long span PC bridges.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.289-297
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• 2017

This paper presents seismic performance and reliability evaluation on steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems composed of steel moment resisting frames and infill light frame wood shear walls. Based on experimental observations, damage assessment was conducted to determine the appropriate damage-related performance objectives for the hybrid shear wall systems. Incremental time-history dynamic analyses were conducted to establish a database of seismic responses for the hybrid systems with various structural configurations. The associated reliability indices and failure probabilities were calculated by two reliability methods (i.e., fragility analysis and response surface method). Both methods yielded similar estimations of failure probabilities. This study indicated the greatly improved seismic performance of the steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems with stronger infill wood shear walls. From a probabilistic perspective, the presented results give some insights on quantifying the seismic performance of the hybrid system under different seismic hazard levels. The reliability-based approaches also serve as efficient tools to assess the performance-based seismic design methodology and calibration of relative code provisions for the proposed steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.101-117
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• 2014

This paper presents a reliability-based analysis on seismic performance of timber-steel hybrid shear wall systems. Such system is composed of steel moment resisting frame and infill wood frame shear wall. The performance criteria of the hybrid system with respect to different seismic hazard levels were determined through a damage assessment process, and the effectiveness of the infill wood shear walls on improving the seismic performance of the hybrid systems was evaluated. Performance curves were obtained by considering different target non-exceedance probabilities, and design charts were further established as a function of seismic weight. Wall drift responses and shear forces in wood-steel bolted connections were used as performance criteria in establishing the performance curves to illustrate the proposed design procedure. It was found that the presence of the infill wood shear walls significantly reduced the non-performance probabilities of the hybrid wall systems. This study provides performance-based seismic evaluations on the timber-steel hybrid shear walls in support of future applications of such hybrid systems in multi-story buildings.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.21-36
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• 2018

The incidence of collision damage models on oil tanker and bulk carrier reliability is investigated considering the IACS deterministic model against GOALDS/IMO database statistics for collision events, substantiating the probabilistic model. Statistical properties of hull girder residual strength are determined by Monte Carlo simulation, based on random generation of damage dimensions and a modified form of incremental-iterative method, to account for neutral axis rotation and equilibrium of horizontal bending moment, due to cross-section asymmetry after collision events. Reliability analysis is performed, to investigate the incidence of collision penetration depth and height statistical properties on hull girder sagging/hogging failure probabilities. Besides, the incidence of corrosion on hull girder residual strength and reliability is also discussed, focussing on gross, hull girder net and local net scantlings, respectively. The ISSC double hull oil tanker and single side bulk carrier, assumed as test cases in the ISSC 2012 report, are taken as reference ships.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.795-812
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• 2011

Estimation of damage probability of buildings under a future earthquake is an essential issue to ensure the seismic reliability. Fragility curves are useful tools for showing the probability of structural damage due to earthquakes as a function of ground motion indices. The purpose of this study is to compare the damage probability of R/C buildings with low and high level of strength and ductility through fragility analysis. Two different types of sample buildings have been considered which represent the building types mentioned above. The first one was designed according to TEC-2007 and the latter was designed according to TEC-1975. The pushover curves of sample buildings were obtained via pushover analyses. Using 60 ground motion records, nonlinear time-history analyses of equivalent single degree of freedom systems were performed using bilinear hysteretic model and peak-oriented hysteretic model with stiffness - strength deterioration for each scaled elastic spectral displacement. The damage measure is maximum inter-story drift ratio and each performance level considered in this study has an assumed limit value of damage measure. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and elastic spectral displacement. Consequently, continuous fragility curves have been constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Furthermore, the effect of hysteresis model parameters on the damage probability is investigated.