• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.87-96
• /
• 2024

This paper proposes a logistic multinomial regression approach to model the spatial cross-correlation of damage probabilities among different damage states in an expanded transportation network. Utilizing Bayesian theory and the multinomial logistic model, we analyze the damage states and probabilities of bridges while incorporating damage correlation. This correlation is considered both between bridges in a network and within each bridge's damage states. The correlation model of damage probabilities is applied to the seismic assessment of a portion of Tehran's transportation network, encompassing 26 bridges. Additionally, we introduce extra daily traffic time (EDTT) as an operational parameter of the transportation network and employ the shortest path algorithm to determine the path between two nodes. Our results demonstrate that incorporating the correlation of damage probabilities reduces the travel time of the selected network. The average decrease in travel time for the correlated case compared to the uncorrelated case, using two selected EDTT models, is 53% and 71%, respectively.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제34권1호
• /
• pp.39-60
• /
• 2010

In Turkey, majority of industrial facilities are composed of precast buildings. However, precast buildings have suffered extensive damage during Kocaeli and Duzce (1999) and Adana-Ceyhan (1998) earthquakes. Therefore, in this study, fragilities of existing building stock and damage probabilities of precast buildings were studied. For this purpose, building inventories were prepared and variation of structural parameters was determined by investigating the design project of 65 precast buildings constructed in Denizli, Turkey. Twelve analysis models which reflect the stiffness, strength and ductility properties of building inventory were constructed. After the definition of strain based displacement limits and corresponding damage states for buildings, displacement demands were calculated by using non linear time history analysis. During the analyses 360 strong ground motion records were used. Exceedence ratios of concerned damage limits was calculated by checking the displacement demands and then PGV based fragility curves were constructed. Efficiency of strength, stiffness and ductility properties of existing precast buildings were investigated by comparing the fragility curves. The results have shown that the most effective parameters that govern the damage probabilities of precast buildings are stiffness and ductility. It was also stated that the results of fragility analysis and damage and failure observations performed after Kocaeli and Duzce Earthquakes are compatible.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지진공학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회논문집
• /
• pp.344-351
• /
• 2003

In order to consider the characteristics of nonlinear dynamic responses of seismic isolated bridges reasonably, piers and isolators are modeled as a 2-DOF bilinear system. Then nonlinear time-history earthquake response analysis is accomplished many artificial input ground motions which were generated to reflect the characteristics of earthquakes. Damage probabilities and failure probabilities of each structural elements of the brides are calculated by using Monte-Carlo simulation method. Based on LCC evaluation considering various cost items of direct/indirect damage costs, the optimal design method of seismic isolated bridges is proposed. By using a sensitivity analysis about the design variables and a cost effectiveness evaluation in the viewpoint of LCC, the validity and the adequacy of proposed optimal design method are verified.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
• /
• 제25권2호
• /
• pp.52-62
• /
• 2013

경사제 피복재의 시간에 따른 파괴확률을 산정할 수 있는 추계학적 Markov 확률모형을 개발하였다. 하중발생에 대한 CP/RP 해석과 누적피해사건에 대한 DP 해석을 결합하여 수학적 모형을 수립하고 경사제 피복재에 적용하였다. 피복재의 피해수준에 대한 정의와 MCS 기법을 이용하여 이행확률을 산정하고 분석하였다. 산정된 이행확률들은 확률적으로나 물리적으로 만족해야하는 제약조건들을 잘 충족한다. 또한 경사제 피복재의 설계와 관련하여 중요한 변수로 생각되는 재현기간 및 안전율의 변화에 따른 시간 의존 파괴확률을 산정하여 그 거동 특성을 자세히 비교 분석하였다. 특히 시간 의존 파괴확률이 이전단계의 피해수준에 의해 어떻게 달라지는지를 정량적으로 해석할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 유지관리에서 가장 중요한 보수보강 시점을 결정할 수 있는 두 가지 접근방법을 제시하고 경제성 분석을 포함한 다양한 해석이 수행되었다.

• 한국강구조학회 논문집
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.41-50
• /
• 2003

구조물에 대한 비파괴 손상평가는 손상 전과 손상 후의 동적 특성으로부터 손상의 위치와 그 크기에 대한 정보를 제공한다. 기존 구조물의 시스템 신뢰도를 추정하기 위해서는 이러한 비파괴 손상평가의 결과가 부재요소의 파괴확률에 반영되어야 한다. 구조 부재의 파괴확률은 각 부재의 파괴함수로부터 신뢰성 이론을 이용하여 구할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 각 부재의 파괴확률로부터 직접 구조 시스템의 파괴확률을 구할 수 있는 식을 제안하였다. 손상평가와 신뢰성평가 분야의 연계는 철골조 단층 프레임의 수치해석 모델에 인위적인 손상을 가하여 손상 전과 손상 후의 모달 변수를 이용하여 그 타당성을 입증하였다.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 1999년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.249-256
• /
• 1999

This study is intended to propose a systematic procedure for the development of the reliability-based seismic safety and cost-effective Performance criteria for design and upgrading of long span PC bridges. In the paper, a set of cost function models for life cycle cost analysis of bridges is proposed. The total life cycle cost functions consist of initial cost and direct/indirect damage costs considering repair/replacement costs, human losses and property damage costs, road user costs, and indirect regional economic losses. The damage costs are successfully expressed in terms of Park-Ang median global damage indices and damage probabilities. The proposed approach is successfully applied to model bridges in both regions of a moderate seismicity area like Seoul, Korea and a high one like Tokyo, Japan. It may be expected that the proposed approach can be effectively utilized for the development of cost-effective performance criteria for design and upgrading of various types of bridges as well as long span PC bridges.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제13권3호
• /
• pp.289-297
• /
• 2017

This paper presents seismic performance and reliability evaluation on steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems composed of steel moment resisting frames and infill light frame wood shear walls. Based on experimental observations, damage assessment was conducted to determine the appropriate damage-related performance objectives for the hybrid shear wall systems. Incremental time-history dynamic analyses were conducted to establish a database of seismic responses for the hybrid systems with various structural configurations. The associated reliability indices and failure probabilities were calculated by two reliability methods (i.e., fragility analysis and response surface method). Both methods yielded similar estimations of failure probabilities. This study indicated the greatly improved seismic performance of the steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems with stronger infill wood shear walls. From a probabilistic perspective, the presented results give some insights on quantifying the seismic performance of the hybrid system under different seismic hazard levels. The reliability-based approaches also serve as efficient tools to assess the performance-based seismic design methodology and calibration of relative code provisions for the proposed steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제7권1호
• /
• pp.101-117
• /
• 2014

This paper presents a reliability-based analysis on seismic performance of timber-steel hybrid shear wall systems. Such system is composed of steel moment resisting frame and infill wood frame shear wall. The performance criteria of the hybrid system with respect to different seismic hazard levels were determined through a damage assessment process, and the effectiveness of the infill wood shear walls on improving the seismic performance of the hybrid systems was evaluated. Performance curves were obtained by considering different target non-exceedance probabilities, and design charts were further established as a function of seismic weight. Wall drift responses and shear forces in wood-steel bolted connections were used as performance criteria in establishing the performance curves to illustrate the proposed design procedure. It was found that the presence of the infill wood shear walls significantly reduced the non-performance probabilities of the hybrid wall systems. This study provides performance-based seismic evaluations on the timber-steel hybrid shear walls in support of future applications of such hybrid systems in multi-story buildings.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.21-36
• /
• 2018

The incidence of collision damage models on oil tanker and bulk carrier reliability is investigated considering the IACS deterministic model against GOALDS/IMO database statistics for collision events, substantiating the probabilistic model. Statistical properties of hull girder residual strength are determined by Monte Carlo simulation, based on random generation of damage dimensions and a modified form of incremental-iterative method, to account for neutral axis rotation and equilibrium of horizontal bending moment, due to cross-section asymmetry after collision events. Reliability analysis is performed, to investigate the incidence of collision penetration depth and height statistical properties on hull girder sagging/hogging failure probabilities. Besides, the incidence of corrosion on hull girder residual strength and reliability is also discussed, focussing on gross, hull girder net and local net scantlings, respectively. The ISSC double hull oil tanker and single side bulk carrier, assumed as test cases in the ISSC 2012 report, are taken as reference ships.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제39권6호
• /
• pp.795-812
• /
• 2011

Estimation of damage probability of buildings under a future earthquake is an essential issue to ensure the seismic reliability. Fragility curves are useful tools for showing the probability of structural damage due to earthquakes as a function of ground motion indices. The purpose of this study is to compare the damage probability of R/C buildings with low and high level of strength and ductility through fragility analysis. Two different types of sample buildings have been considered which represent the building types mentioned above. The first one was designed according to TEC-2007 and the latter was designed according to TEC-1975. The pushover curves of sample buildings were obtained via pushover analyses. Using 60 ground motion records, nonlinear time-history analyses of equivalent single degree of freedom systems were performed using bilinear hysteretic model and peak-oriented hysteretic model with stiffness - strength deterioration for each scaled elastic spectral displacement. The damage measure is maximum inter-story drift ratio and each performance level considered in this study has an assumed limit value of damage measure. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and elastic spectral displacement. Consequently, continuous fragility curves have been constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Furthermore, the effect of hysteresis model parameters on the damage probability is investigated.