Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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v.23
no.6
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pp.1309-1317
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2012
Stochastic weather generators are commonly used to simulate time series of daily weather, especially precipitation amount. Recently, a generalized linear model (GLM) has been proposed as a convenient approach to fitting these weather generators. In this paper, a stochastic weather generator is considered to model the time series of daily precipitation at Seoul in South Korea. As a covariate, global temperature is introduced to relate long-term temporal scale predictor to short-term temporal predictands. One of the limitations of stochastic weather generators is a marked tendency to underestimate the observed interannual variance of monthly, seasonal, or annual total precipitation. To reduce this phenomenon, we incorporate time series of seasonal total precipitation in the GLM weather generator as covariates. It is veri ed that the addition of these covariates does not distort the performance of the weather generator in other respects.
Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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v.23
no.2
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pp.45-53
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1981
Long term precipitation gaging station record (58 years) was analyzed by progressive mean method to compare the estimated effective period of records for computing mean and probable values. Obtained results are as follows: 1. Fifty-eight years precipitation records at Jinju, Gyeong Sang Nam Do was analyzed by double mass analysis method. Result was appeared that the record was consistent with time. 2. The effective period of records for estimating mean values with the departure of 5% or less from the true mean are up to 33 years for annual precipitation, 20 years for annual maximum daily precipitation and 45 years for maximum successive dry days in summer season. 3. To estimate the probable values by Gumbel-Chow method within the departure of 5% level from true value, periods of 51 years, 38 years and 45 years were required for annual precipitation, annual maximum daily precipitation and maximum successive dry days in summer season, respectively.
Losses in the dry weight of leaf litter from six tree species were studied during 16 months on the forest floor in temperate deciduous forest of Mt. Cheonma in the vicinity of Seoul in Korea by using litter bag method. The decomposition rate of each leaf litter varies with each species. After 16 months elapsed, the leaf litter of Acer pseudo-sieboidianum showed the highest decomposition constant (0.82) as Olson´s decomposition constant, while that of Pinus densiflora showed the lowest decomposition constant (0.33). The decomposition constant of Quercus mongolica, Q. serrata, Betula ermani and Carpinus laxiflora showed 0.43, 0.37, 0.66 and 0.75, respectively. The decomposition constant of leaf litter was considered with temperature and precipitation which accumulated daily during each term of litter bag collection. The decomposition constant of leaf litter showed closely positive correlation with daily accumulative temperature and precipitation. The relationships between decomposition constant and the daily accumulative temperature and precipitation at each period of litter bag collection were analyzed through multi-regression analysis. The correlation coefficients as a result of multi-regression analysis in Q. mongolica, Q. serrata, P densiflora, B. ermani, C. laxiflorais and A. pseudo-sieboldianum were 0.83, 0.81, 0.69, 0.77, 0.77 and 0.62, respectively. The precipitation showed higher effect, about 10 times, on the leaf litter decomposition than the daily accumulative temperature.
The cluster analysis of diurnal precipitation patterns is performed by using daily precipitation of 59 stations in South Korea from 1973 to 1996 in four seasons of each year. Four seasons are shifted forward by 15 days compared to the general ones. Number of clusters are 15 in winter, 16 in spring and autumn, and 26 in summer, respectively. One of the classes is the totally dry day in each season, indicating that precipitation is never observed at any station. This is treated separately in this study. Distribution of the days among the clusters is rather uneven with rather low area-mean precipitation occurring most frequently. These 4 (seasons)$\times$2 (wet and dry days) classes represent more than the half (59 %) of all days of the year. On the other hand, even the smallest seasonal clusters show at least $5\sim9$ members in the 24 years (1973-1996) period of classification. The cluster analysis is directly performed for the major $5\sim8$ non-correlated coefficients of the diurnal precipitation patterns obtained by factor analysis In order to consider the spatial correlation. More specifically, hierarchical clustering based on Euclidean distance and Ward's method of agglomeration is applied. The relative variance explained by the clustering is as high as average (63%) with better capability in spring (66%) and winter (69 %), but lower than average in autumn (60%) and summer (59%). Through applying weighted relative variances, i.e. dividing the squared deviations by the cluster averages, we obtain even better values, i.e 78 % in average, compared to the same index without clustering. This means that the highest variance remains in the clusters with more precipitation. Besides all statistics necessary for the validation of the final classification, 4 cluster centers are mapped for each season to illustrate the range of typical extremities, paired according to their area mean precipitation or negative pattern correlation. Possible alternatives of the performed classification and reasons for their rejection are also discussed with inclusion of a wide spectrum of recommended applications.
This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing regional climate over CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 domain with different cumulus parameterization schemes [Kain-Fritch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BM), and Grell-Devenyi-Ensemble (GD)]. The model is integrated for 27 months from January 1979 to March 1981 and the initial and boundary conditions are derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The WRF model reasonably reproduces the temperature and precipitation characteristics over East Asia, but the regional scale responses are very sensitive to cumulus parameterization schemes. In terms of mean bias, WRF model with BM scheme shows the best performance in terms of summer/winter mean precipitation as well as summer mean temperature throughout the North East Asia. In contrast, the seasonal mean precipitation is generally overestimated (underestimated) by KF (GD) scheme. In addition, the seasonal variation of the temperature and precipitation is well simulated by WRF model, but with an overestimation in summer precipitation derived from KF experiment and with an underestimation in wet season precipitation from BM and GD schemes. Also, the frequency distribution of daily precipitation derived from KF and BM experiments (GD experiment) is well reproduced, except for the overestimation (underestimation) in the intensity range above (less) then $2.5mm\;d^{-1}$. In the case of the amount of daily precipitation, all experiments tend to underestimate (overestimate) the amount of daily precipitation in the low-intensity range < $4mm\;d^{-1}$ (high-intensity range > $12mm\;d^{-1}$). This type of error is largest in the KF experiment.
Background: For understanding and evaluating a more realistic and accurate assessment of ecosystem carbon balance related with environmental change or difference, it is necessary to analyze the various interrelationships between soil respiration and environmental factors. However, the soil temperature is mainly used for gap filling and estimation of soil respiration (Rs) under environmental change. Under the fact that changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change are expected, the effects of soil moisture content (SMC) on soil respiration have not been well studied relative to soil temperature. In this study, we attempt to analyze relationship between precipitation and soil respiration in temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest for 2 years in Gwangneung. Results: The average soil temperature (Ts) measured at a depth of 5 cm during the full study period was $12.0^{\circ}C$. The minimum value for monthly Ts was $-0.4^{\circ}C$ in February 2015 and $2.0^{\circ}C$ in January 2016. The maximum monthly Ts was $23.6^{\circ}C$ in August in both years. In 2015, annual precipitation was 823.4 mm and it was 1003.8 mm in 2016. The amount of precipitation increased by 21.9% in 2016 compared to 2015, but in 2015, it rained for 8 days more than in 2016. In 2015, the pattern of low precipitation was continuously shown, and there was a long dry period as well as a period of concentrated precipitation in 2016. 473.7 mm of precipitation, which accounted for about 51.8% of the precipitation during study period, was concentrated during summer (June to August) in 2016. The maximum values of daily Rs in both years were observed on the day when precipitation of 20 mm or more. From this, the maximum Rs value in 2015 was $784.3mg\;CO_2\;m^{-2}\;h^{-1}$ in July when 26.8 mm of daily precipitation was measured. The maximum was $913.6mg\;CO_2\;m^{-2}\;h^{-1}$ in August in 2016, when 23.8 mm of daily precipitation was measured. Rs on a rainy day was 1.5~1.6 times higher than it without precipitation. Consequently, the annual Rs in 2016 was about 12% higher than it was in 2015. It was shown a result of a 14% increase in summer precipitation from 2015. Conclusions: In this study, it was concluded that the precipitation pattern has a great effect on soil respiration. We confirmed that short-term but intense precipitation suppressed soil respiration due to a rapid increase in soil moisture, while sustained and adequate precipitation activated Rs. In especially, it is very important role on Rs in potential activating period such as summer high temperature season. Therefore, the accuracy of the calculated values by functional equation can be improved by considering the precipitation in addition to the soil temperature applied as the main factor for long-term prediction of soil respiration. In addition to this, we believe that the accuracy can be further improved by introducing an estimation equation based on seasonal temperature and soil moisture.
Moon, Kyung Hwan;Song, Eun Young;Son, In Chang;Wi, Seung Hwan;Oh, Soonja;Hyun, Hae Nam
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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v.19
no.1
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pp.27-35
/
2017
This research was to elucidate the generation method of daily precipitation data from monthly data. We applied a combined method of Markov chain and gamma distribution function using 4 specific parameters of ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$, p(W/W) and p(W/D) for generation of daily rainfall data using daily precipitation data for the past 30 years which were collected from the country's 23 meteorological offices. Four parameters, applied to use for the combination method, were calculated by maximum likelihood method in location of 23 sites. There are high correlations of 0.99, 0.98 and 0.98 in rainfall days, rainfall probability and mean amount of daily rainfall between measured and simulated data in case of those parameters. In case of using parameters estimated from monthly precipitation, correlation coefficients in rainfall days, rainfall probability and mean amount of daily rainfall are 0.84, 0.83 and 0.96, respectively. We concluded that a combination method with parameter estimation from monthly precipitation data can be applied, in practical purpose such as assessment of climate change in agriculture and water resources, to get daily precipitation data in Korea.
Meteorological data are often needed to evaluate the long-term effects of proposed hydrologic changes. The evaluation is frequently undertaken using deterministic mathematical models that require daily weather data as input including precipitation amount, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed. Stochastic generation of the required weather data offers alternative to the use of observed weather records. The precipitation is modeled by a Markov Chain-exponential model. The other variables are generated by multivariate model with means and standard deviations of the variables conditioned on the wet or dry status of the day as determined by the precipitation model. Ultimately, the objective of this paper is to compare Richardson's model and the improved weather generation model in their ability to provide daily weather data for the crop model to study potential impacts of climate change on the irrigation needs and crop yield. However this paper does not refer to the improved weather generation model and the crop model. The new weather generation model improved will be introduced in the Journal of KWRA.
Kim, Dae-Jun;Kang, DaeGyoon;Park, Joo-Hyeon;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Yongseok
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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v.23
no.4
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pp.424-433
/
2021
Recent climate change has caused abnormal weather phenomena all over the world and a lot of damage in many fields of society. Particularly, a lot of recent damages were due to extreme precipitation, such as torrential downpour or drought. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in the precipitation pattern in South Korea. To achieve this objective, this study selected some of the precipitation indices suggested in previous studies to compare the temporal characteristics of precipitation induced by climate change. This study selected ten ASOS observatories of the Korea Meteorological Administration to understand the change over time for each location with considering regional distribution. This study also collected daily cumulative precipitation from 1951 to 2020 for each point. Additionally, this study generated high-resolution national daily precipitation distribution maps using an orographic precipitation model from 1981 to 2020 and analyzed them. Temporal analysis showed that although annual cumulative precipitation revealed an increasing trend from the past to the present. The number of precipitation days showed a decreasing trend at most observation points, but the number of torrential downpour days revealed an increasing trend. Spatially, the number of precipitation days and the number of torrential downpour days decreased in many areas over time, and this pattern was prominent in the central region. The precipitation pattern of South Korea can be summarized as the fewer precipitation days and larger daily precipitation over time.
Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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2023.05a
/
pp.163-163
/
2023
Flooding has become an increasing event which is one of the major natural disasters responsible for direct economic damage in South Korea. Driven by climate change, precipitation extremes play significant role on the flood damage and its further increase is expected to exacerbate the socioeconomic impact in the country. However, the empirical evidence associating changes in precipitation extremes to the historical flood damage is limited. Thus, there is a need to assess the causal relationship between changes in precipitation extremes and flood damage, especially in agricultural region like Chungcheong region in South Korea. The spatial and temporal changes of precipitation extremes from 10 synoptic stations based on daily precipitation data were analyzed using the ClimPACT2 tool and Mann-Kendall test. The four precipitation extreme indices consisting of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of very heavy precipitation wet days (R30 mm), maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day), and simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), which represent changes in intensity, frequency, and duration, respectively, and the time series data on flooded area and flood damage from 1985 to 2020 were used to investigate the causal relationship in the ARDL-ECM framework and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The trend results showed that majority of the precipitation indices indicated positive trends, however, CWD showed no significant changes. ARDL-ECM framework showed that there was a long-run relationship among the variables. Further analysis on the empirical results showed that flooded area and Rx1day have significant positive impacts on the flood damage in both short and long-runs while R30 mm only indicated significant positive impact in the short-run, both in the current period, which implies that an increase in flooded area, Rx1day, and R30 mm will cause an increase in the flood damage. The pairwise Granger analysis showed unidirectional causality from the flooded area, R30 mm, Rx1day, and SDII to flood damage. Thus, these precipitation indices could be useful as indicators of pluvial flood damage in Chungcheong region of South Korea.
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