Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Changes in the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Precipitation Due to Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 강수량의 시공간적 발생 패턴의 변화 분석

  • Kim, Dae-Jun (National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, DaeGyoon (National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Joo-Hyeon (EPINET Co., Ltd.) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Hee (National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Yongseok (National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Rural Development Administration)
  • Received : 2021.10.25
  • Accepted : 2021.12.10
  • Published : 2021.12.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Recent climate change has caused abnormal weather phenomena all over the world and a lot of damage in many fields of society. Particularly, a lot of recent damages were due to extreme precipitation, such as torrential downpour or drought. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in the precipitation pattern in South Korea. To achieve this objective, this study selected some of the precipitation indices suggested in previous studies to compare the temporal characteristics of precipitation induced by climate change. This study selected ten ASOS observatories of the Korea Meteorological Administration to understand the change over time for each location with considering regional distribution. This study also collected daily cumulative precipitation from 1951 to 2020 for each point. Additionally, this study generated high-resolution national daily precipitation distribution maps using an orographic precipitation model from 1981 to 2020 and analyzed them. Temporal analysis showed that although annual cumulative precipitation revealed an increasing trend from the past to the present. The number of precipitation days showed a decreasing trend at most observation points, but the number of torrential downpour days revealed an increasing trend. Spatially, the number of precipitation days and the number of torrential downpour days decreased in many areas over time, and this pattern was prominent in the central region. The precipitation pattern of South Korea can be summarized as the fewer precipitation days and larger daily precipitation over time.

최근의 기후변화는 지구촌 곳곳에 이상기상 현상을 발생시키며, 사회 여러 분야에서 많은 피해를 발생시키고 있다. 특히 최근에는 호우 또는 가뭄 등 강수량의 많고 적음으로 인한 피해가 많이 보고되고 있는데, 본 연구에서는 실제로 우리나라에서 발생하고 있는 강수량의 발생 패턴을 조사하여 과거에서 현재까지 어떤 변화를 보이는지 분석해보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 선행연구에서 기후변화에 따른 강수량의 시간적 특성 비교를 위해 제시한 강수지표 중 일부를 선정하였다. 지점별 시간에 따른 변화를 분석하기 위하여 국내 기상청 ASOS 관측소 10개 지점을 지역분포를 고려하여 선정하였으며, 지점별로 1951년부터 2020년까지의 일적산강수량을 수집하였다. 또한 산악강수모형을 이용하여 1981년부터 2020년까지의 전국 고해상도의 일별 강수분포도를 제작하여 분석에 활용하였다. 시간에 따른 분석결과 연적산강수량의 경우 과거에서 현재로 이동하면서 증가 양상을 보였다. 강수일수의 경우 대부분의 관측지점에서 감소하는 추세를 보였으며, 호우일수의 경우는 반대로 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 공간적인 변화의 경우 강수일수와 호우일수 모두 과거에 비해 감소되는 지역이 많았으며, 그 특징은 중부지방에서 두드러지게 나타났다. 결과적으로 우리나라의 강수량의 패턴은 짧아진 강수일수, 늘어난 일별 강수량으로의 변화로 정리할 수 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 농촌진흥청 공동연구사업(과제번호: PJ015008022021)의 지원에 의해 이루어진 것임.

References

  1. Choi, G., 2014: Spatio-temporal changes in seasonal extreme temperature events in the Republic of Korea. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society 49(4), 489-508. (in Korean with English abstract)
  2. Choi, Y., H. Lee, and J. Kwon, 2013: Recent change on frequency-magnitude of summer extreme rainfall events over the Republic of Korea. The Geographical Journal of Korea 47(1), 83-97. (in Korean with English abstract)
  3. Chung, U., K. Yun, K. S. Cho, J. H. Yi, and J. I. Yun, 2009: The PRISM-based rainfall mapping at an enhanced grid cell resolution in complex terrain. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 11(2), 72-78. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.2.072
  4. Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, and D. L. Phillips, 1994: A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 33, 140-158. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2
  5. Hong, S.-H., Y. G. Kim, W.-H. Lee, and E.-S. Chung, 2012: Rainfall variations of temporal characteristics of Korea using rainfall indicator. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 45(4), 393-407. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.4.393
  6. Karl, T. R., and D. R. Eastering, 1999: Climate extremes: Selected review and future research directions. Climate Change 42(10), 309-325. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005436904097
  7. Kim, D. J., and J. H. Kim, 2019: Estimating the monthly precipitation distribution of North Korea using the PRISM model and enhanced detailed terrain information. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 21(4), 366-372. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2019.21.4.366
  8. Kim, D. J., and J. I. Yun, 2013: Improving usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's digital forecasts in agriculture: 2. Refining the distribution of precipitation amount. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 15(3), 171-177. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.3.171
  9. Kim, D. J., S. O. Kim, J. H. Kim, and E. J. Yun, 2019: Establishment of geospatial schemes based on topo-climatology for farm-specific agrometeorological information. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 21(3), 135-145. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2019.21.3.135
  10. KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), 2021: Abnormal Climate Report 2020. Joint with related ministries. 212pp. (in Korean)
  11. KOSIS (Korean Statistical Information Service), 2020: https://kosis.kr/
  12. Johnson, G. L., P. A. Pasteries, G. H. Taylor, and C. Daly, 1999: Spatial climate products - a new dimension for climate applications. Preprints, 11th Conference on Applied Climatology, Dallas, Texas, American Meteorological Society, 107-113.
  13. Park, M., and Y. Choi, 2020: An examination of changes and future projections of the highest daily maximum temperature by return periods using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) in the Republic of Korea. The Geographical Journal of Korea 54(1), 37-48. (in Korean with English abstract) https://doi.org/10.22905/KAOPQJ.2020.54.1.37
  14. Stern, N., 2006: The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 575pp.