• Title/Summary/Keyword: daily demand forecasting

Search Result 68, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Automatic National Image Interpretability Rating Scales (NIIRS) Measurement Algorithm for Satellite Images (위성영상을 위한 NIIRS(Natinal Image Interpretability Rating Scales) 자동 측정 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Jeahee;Lee, Changu;Park, Jong Won
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.725-735
    • /
    • 2016
  • High-resolution satellite images are used in the fields of mapping, natural disaster forecasting, agriculture, ocean-based industries, infrastructure, and environment, and there is a progressive increase in the development and demand for the applications of high-resolution satellite images. Users of the satellite images desire accurate quality of the provided satellite images. Moreover, the distinguishability of each image captured by an actual satellite varies according to the atmospheric environment and solar angle at the captured region, the satellite velocity and capture angle, and the system noise. Hence , NIIRS must be measured for all captured images. There is a significant deficiency in professional human resources and time resources available to measure the NIIRS of few hundred images that are transmitted daily. Currently, NIIRS is measured every few months or even few years to assess the aging of the satellite as well as to verify and calibrate it [3]. Therefore, we develop an algorithm that can measure the national image interpretability rating scales (NIIRS) of a typical satellite image rather than an artificial target satellite image, in order to automatically assess its quality. In this study, the criteria for automatic edge region extraction are derived based on the previous works on manual edge region extraction [4][5], and consequently, we propose an algorithm that can extract the edge region. Moreover, RER and H are calculated from the extracted edge region for automatic edge region extraction. The average NIIRS value was measured to be 3.6342±0.15321 (2 standard deviations) from the automatic measurement experiment on a typical satellite image, which is similar to the result extracted from the artificial target.

Water consumption forecasting and pattern classification according to demographic factors and automated meter reading (인구통계학적 요인 및 원격검침 자료를 활용한 가정용 물 사용패턴 분류 및 물 사용량 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Kibum;Park, Haekeum;Kim, Taehyeon;Hyung, Jinseok;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.36 no.3
    • /
    • pp.149-165
    • /
    • 2022
  • The water consumption data of individual consumers must be analyzed and forecast to establish an effective water demand management plan. A k-mean cluster model that can monitor water use characteristics based on hourly water consumption data measured using automated meter reading devices and demographic factors is developed in this study. In addition, the quantification model that can estimate the daily water consumption is developed. K-mean cluster analysis based on the four clusters shows that the average silhouette coefficient is 0.63, also the silhouette coefficients of each cluster exceed 0.60, thereby verifying the high reliability of the cluster analysis. Furthermore, the clusters are clearly classified based on water usage and water usage patterns. The correlation coefficients of four quantification models for estimating water consumption exceed 0.74, confirming that the models can accurately simulate the investigated demographic data. The statistical significance of the models is considered reasonable, hence, they are applicable to the actual field. Because the use of automated smart water meters has become increasingly popular in recent year, water consumption has been metered remotely in many areas. The proposed methodology and the results obtained in this study are expected to facilitate improvements in the usability of smart water meters in the future.

Deep Neural Network Based Prediction of Daily Spectators for Korean Baseball League : Focused on Gwangju-KIA Champions Field (Deep Neural Network 기반 프로야구 일일 관중 수 예측 : 광주-기아 챔피언스 필드를 중심으로)

  • Park, Dong Ju;Kim, Byeong Woo;Jeong, Young-Seon;Ahn, Chang Wook
    • Smart Media Journal
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.16-23
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this paper, we used the Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict the number of daily spectators of Gwangju - KIA Champions Field in order to provide marketing data for the team and related businesses and for managing the inventories of the facilities in the stadium. In this study, the DNN model, which is based on an artificial neural network (ANN), was used, and four kinds of DNN model were designed along with dropout and batch normalization model to prevent overfitting. Each of four models consists of 10 DNNs, and we added extra models with ensemble model. Each model was evaluated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The learning data from the model randomly selected 80% of the collected data from 2008 to 2017, and the other 20% were used as test data. With the result of 100 data selection, model configuration, and learning and prediction, we concluded that the predictive power of the DNN model with ensemble model is the best, and RMSE and MAPE are 15.17% and 14.34% higher, correspondingly, than the prediction value of the multiple linear regression model.

Estimating an Optimal Scale of a Railway Station with Non-Passengers (철도 비승차 이용객을 고려한 역사 시설물별 적정규모 산정방안)

  • Oh, Tae ho;Lee, Seon ha;Kang, Hee up;Insigne, Maria Sharlene L.;Lee, Sang Jae
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.76-91
    • /
    • 2017
  • The Area of a domestic railway station is designed based on the 4-step traffic demand forecasting model with the average daily passenger count as one of its parameter. However, nowadays, due to increasing rate of railway station's function, the non-passengers are increasing. In order to consider those non-passengers who aren't using trains, assumed volume are added to the average daily passenger count of station to estimate the area, but the criteria being applied has no concrete basis. Therefore, this study aimed to recalculate the increasing non-passenger rate based on actual survey data of station users in any type of railway station to obtain the optimum area. Subsequently, the the design area was performed through pedestrian simulation. According to the result of the simulation, it was found that the total space of the exciting railway stations can be reduced up to 45% and will still satisfy the level of service(LOS) requirement.

A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.36 no.1
    • /
    • pp.49-62
    • /
    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

A Study on Activity Type Based on Multi-dimensional Characteristics (개인의 복합적인 특성에 따른 활동유형 분석)

  • Na, Sung Yong;Lee, Seungjae;Kim, Joo Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.32 no.5
    • /
    • pp.544-553
    • /
    • 2014
  • Activity-based models analyze individuals' various daily activities that are identified as a decision-making unit for transportation planning. In other words, it is the model that determines the types of activities according to the social, economic and situational characteristics of the groups with the same activity patterns and predicts individuals' activity time, distance, spatial movement and transportation mode. The activity-based model is a method of estimating more efficient and realistic demand in transportation forecasting because traffic is regarded as a complex decision-making process that an individual and other people participate in. In this paper, we grasp the factors affecting choice behavior of activity pattern and analyze choice behavior of activity pattern based on multi-dimensional characteristic of each person. First, we classify activity types of reviewing the trip chain and activity purpose. Next, we identified preferable activity types using complicated characteristics of main agent of activity. We concluded that choice behavior of activity pattern is dependent on complex characteristics of each agent, and further multi-dimensional characteristics of each person are affected over the whole decision process of activity schedule.

A study on the estimation of onion's bulb weight using multi-level model (다층모형을 활용한 양파 구중 추정 연구)

  • Kim, Junki;Choi, Seung-cheon;Kim, Jaehwi;Seo, Hong-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.763-776
    • /
    • 2020
  • Onions show severe volatility in production and price because crop conditions highly depend on the weather. The government has designated onions as a sensitive agricultural product, and prepared various measures to stabilize the supply and demand. First of all, preemptive and reliable information on predicting onion production is essential to implement appropriate and effective measures. This study aims to contribute to improving the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model to estimate the final weight of onions bulb. For the analysis, multi-level model is used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of above-ground growth data in individual units and meteorological data in parcel units. The result shows that as the number of leaf, stem diameter, and plant height in early May increase, the bulb weight increases. The amount of precipitation as well as the number of days beyond a certain temperature inhibiting carbon assimilation have negative effects on bulb weight, However, the daily range of temperature and more precipitation near the harvest season are statistically significant as positive effects. Also, it is confirmed that the fitness and explanatory power of the model is improved by considering the interaction terms between level-1 and level-2 variables.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.24 no.5 s.91
    • /
    • pp.89-108
    • /
    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.