• 한국군사과학기술학회지
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.76-86
• /
• 2020

Technology growth curve methodology is commonly used in technology forecasting. A technology growth curve represents the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to compare the technological performances between Korea and advanced nations and to describe the inflection points, the limit of improvement of a technology and their technology innovation strategies, etc. However, the curve fitting to a set of survey data often leads to model mis-specification, biased parameter estimation and incorrect result since data through survey with experts frequently contain outlier in process of curve fitting due to the subjective response characteristics. This paper propose a method to eliminate of outlier from a technology growth curve using M-estimator. The experimental results prove the overall improvement in technology growth curves by several pilot tests using real-data in Defense Science and Technology Survey reports.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.205-216
• /
• 2019

Diagnostic tests in medical fields detect or diagnose a disease with results measured by continuous or discrete ordinal data. The performance of a diagnostic test is summarized using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC). The diagnostic test is considered clinically useful if the outcomes in actually-positive cases are higher than actually-negative cases and the ROC curve is concave. In this study, we apply the stochastic ordering method in a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the proper ROC curve and AUC when the diagnostic test results are measured in discrete ordinal data. We compare the conventional binormal model and binormal model under stochastic ordering. The simulation results and real data analysis for breast cancer indicate that the binormal model under stochastic ordering can be used to estimate the proper ROC curve with a small bias even though the sample sizes were small or the sample size of actually-negative cases varied from actually-positive cases. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider the binormal model under stochastic ordering in the presence of large differences for a sample size between actually-negative and actually-positive groups.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제52권6호
• /
• pp.85-94
• /
• 2010

The objective of this study is to estimate the flood runoff for three guaged stations within Namgang-Dam watershed which are operated by KWATER. For a flood runoff simulation, HEC-HMS was applied and the simulated runoff was compared with observed from 2004 to 2008. The watershed area of Sancheong, Shinan, and Changchon were 693.6 $km^2$, 413.4 $km^2$, and 346.48 $km^2$, respectively. The average runoff ratio of observed runoff for three watersheds were 0.725, 0.418, and 0.586, respectively. The dominant land cover of three watersheds are forest with the value of 71.6 %, 73.1 %, and 82.0 %. Three different cases according to the potential maximum retention of forest areas for calculating the curve number were applied to decrease the error between the simulated and observed. The simulated peak runoff of case 3 which applied the 90 % of potential maximum retention of curve number which is equivalent to AMCI for all the AMCI, AMCII, and AMCIII conditions showed least root mean square error (RMSE). The case 1, which was suggested by previous study, showed high discrepancy between the simulated and observed. Since the forest area consists of more than 70 % for all three watersheds, the application of curve number for forest is critical to improve the estimation errors. Further research is required to estimate the more accurate curve number for forest area.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지반공학회 2000년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.575-582
• /
• 2000

The flat Dilatometer test(flat DMT) has been known as an in-situ testing method which is simple and robust to use, and reliable for site stratification and evaluation of soil properties. It was designed and proposed by Marchetti in 1975 to characterize the properties of soils. There are many researches that have been done to evaluate the horizontal coefficient of consolidation from the dissipation test results of flat DMT on normally consolidated and slightly overconsolidated clays. The representative estimation methods of estimating the horizontal consolidation coefficient are DMT-C method which uses a C-reading dissipation curve and DMT-A method which uses a A-reading dissipation curve. This paper represents a comparison analysis of those two methods in obtaining the horizontal coefficients of consolidation. The reference values are also obtained by CPTU and other laboratory tests. The applicability of using flat DMT to characterize the consolidation behavior is also reviewed for two sites. According to the results, DMT-A method is not suitable for silty clays possibly because of the compressibility characteristics. As for the normally consolidated and slightly overconsolidated clays, the results obtained from the two methods are comparable with each other as well as with the laboratory test results.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제48권1호
• /
• pp.27-38
• /
• 2006

In this study, we developed a program to estimate discharge efficiently considering major hydraulic characteristic including water level, river bed, water slope and roughness coefficient in a natural river. Stream discharge was measured at Gongju gauge station located in the down stream of the Daechung Dam during normal and dry seasons from 2003 to 2004. The developed model was compared with the results from the existing rating curve at T/M gage stations, and was used for runoff analyses. Evaluating the developed river discharge estimation program, it was applied during 1983-2004 that base flow separation method and RRFS (Rainfall Runoff Forecasting System) which is based on SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis And Resevoir Regulation). The result presents the stage-discharge curve creator range at the Gong-ju is overestimated by approximately $10-20\%$, especially at the low stage. It is attributed to the hydraulic characteristics at the study. The discharge simulated by the RRFS and base flow separation, which is calibrated using the measurement at the early spring and late fall season during relatively d]v season, shows the least errors. The coefficient of roughness at Gongju station varied with the high and low water level.

• 한국물환경학회지
• /
• 제23권6호
• /
• pp.897-905
• /
• 2007

Approximately 70% of Korea is composed of forest areas. Especially 48% of agricultural field is practiced at highland areas over 400 m in elevation in Kangwon province. Over 90% of highland agricultural farming is located at Kangwon province. Runoff characteristics at the mountainous area such as Kangwon province are largely affected by steep slopes, thus runoff estimation considering field slopes needs to be utilized for accurate estimation of direct runoff. Although many methods for runoff estimation are available, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS), now Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), Curve Number (CN)-based method is used in this study. The CN values were obtained from many plot-years dataset obtained from mid-west areas of the United States, where most of the areas have less than 5% in slopes. Thus, the CN method is not suitable for accurate runoff estimation where significant areas are over 5% in slopes. Therefore, the CN values were adjusted based on the average slopes (25.8% at Doam-dam watershed) depending on the 5-day Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC). In this study, the CN-based Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) direct runoff estimation model used and the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) was used for direct runoff separation from the stream flow data. The $R^2$ value was 0.65 and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value was 0.60 when no slope adjustment was made in CN method. However, the $R^2$ value was 0.69 and the Nash-Sutcliffe value was 0.69 with slope adjustment. As shown in this study, it is strongly recommended the slope adjustment in the CN direct runoff estimation should be made for accurate direct runoff prediction using the CN-based L-THIA model when applied to steep mountainous areas.

• 한국공작기계학회논문집
• /
• 제16권4호
• /
• pp.22-28
• /
• 2007

The welded defects are usually called user's unsatisfaction for appearance and functional usage. For checking these defects effectively without time loss, setup of weldability estimation system is an important for detecting whole specimen quality. In this study, after catching a rawdata on welded specimen profiles and treating vision processing with these data, the qualitative defects are estimated from getting these information by laser vision camera at first. At the same time, the weldability estimation for whole specimen is produced. For user friendly, the weldability estimation results are shown each profiles, final reports and visual graphics method. So, user can easily determined weldability. By applying these system to welding fabrication, these technologies are contribution to on-line setup of weldability estimation system.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제59권2호
• /
• pp.429-435
• /
• 2010

Three dimensional (3-D) object detection and pose estimation from a single view query image has been an important issue in various fields such as medical applications, robot vision, and manufacturing automation. However, most of the existing methods are not appropriate in a real time environment since object detection and pose estimation requires extensive information and computation. In this paper, we present a fast 3-D object detection and pose estimation scheme based on surrounding camera view-changed images of objects. Our scheme has two parts. First, we detect images similar to the query image from the database based on the shape feature, and calculate candidate poses. Second, we perform accurate pose estimation for the candidate poses using the scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) method. We earned out extensive experiments on our prototype system and achieved excellent performance, and we report some of the results.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국소음진동공학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.328-334
• /
• 2001

Up to now. vibration analysis and vibration engineering have been developed, encompassing the aspects of both experimental and analytical techniques. Using experimental modal analysis or modal testing, the mode shapes and frequencies of practical structure can be measured accurately. Curve-Fitting Method is realized through experimental modal identification. In the experimental modal parameter estimation, the estimation of modal damping factor is difficult for complicated and large structure. Also numbers of Selected mode are determined before the procedure. This paper describes the vibration shape of the super-structure model of ship through experimental modal analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제36권1호
• /
• pp.1-29
• /
• 2007

Suppose one is trying to estimate a high dimensional vector of parameters from a series of one observation per parameter. Often, it is possible to take advantage of sparsity in the parameters by thresholding the data in an appropriate way. A marginal maximum likelihood approach, within a suitable Bayesian structure, has excellent properties. For very sparse signals, the procedure chooses a large threshold and takes advantage of the sparsity, while for signals where there are many non-zero values, the method does not perform excessive smoothing. The scope of the method is reviewed and demonstrated, and various theoretical, practical and computational issues are discussed, in particularly exploring the wide potential and applicability of the general approach, and the way it can be used within more complex thresholding problems such as curve estimation using wavelets.