Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology (한국군사과학기술학회지)

The Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology (한국군사과학기술학회)
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Elimination of Outlier from Technology Growth Curve using M-estimator for Defense Science and Technology Survey

M-추정을 사용한 국방과학기술 수준조사 기술성장모형의 이상치 제거

  • Kim, Jangheon (Planning and Coordination Team, Defense Agency for Technology and Quality)
  • 김장헌 (국방기술품질원 기획조정팀)
  • Received : 2019.10.17
  • Accepted : 2020.01.29
  • Published : 2020.02.05
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Abstract

Technology growth curve methodology is commonly used in technology forecasting. A technology growth curve represents the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to compare the technological performances between Korea and advanced nations and to describe the inflection points, the limit of improvement of a technology and their technology innovation strategies, etc. However, the curve fitting to a set of survey data often leads to model mis-specification, biased parameter estimation and incorrect result since data through survey with experts frequently contain outlier in process of curve fitting due to the subjective response characteristics. This paper propose a method to eliminate of outlier from a technology growth curve using M-estimator. The experimental results prove the overall improvement in technology growth curves by several pilot tests using real-data in Defense Science and Technology Survey reports.

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References

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