• Land and Housing Review
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.135-146
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• 2024

This study predicts the means sharing ratio of the urban air transportation (UAM) when the VertiHub of the UAM in the southern western part is built at Songjeong Station in Gwanju. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of the utility function and means selection logit model for each means of transportation, our findings indicate an average mode share of 0.95%, with a variability range from 0.07% to 4.7%. Moreover, 95% of the simulation outcomes fall below a 2.02% mode share. Sensitivity analysis, conducted via Tornado Plot, highlights that the mode share is principally influenced by factors such as the unit fare, cost parameter, basic fare, and the time required for takeoff and landing. Notably, a negative correlation exists for unit fare, basic fare, and takeoff and landing time, suggesting the necessity of setting an appropriate level of fair to enhance UAM utilization.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.51 no.5
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• pp.509-527
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• 2024

Bonding carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminates have been extensively employed in the restoration of steel constructions. In addition to the mechanical properties of the CFRP, the bond strength (P_U) between the CFRP and steel is often important in the eventual strengthened performance. Nonetheless, the bond behavior of the CFRP-steel (CS) interface is exceedingly complicated, with multiple failure causes, giving the P_U challenging to forecast, and the CFRP-enhanced steel structure is unsteady. In just this case, appropriate methods were established by hybridized Random Forests (RF) and support vector regression (SVR) approaches on assembled CS single-shear experiment data to foresee the P_U of CS, in which a recently established optimization algorithm named Aquila optimizer (AO) was used to tune the RF and SVR hyperparameters. In summary, the practical novelty of the article lies in its development of a reliable and efficient method for predicting bond strength at the CS interface, which has significant implications for structural rehabilitation, design optimization, risk mitigation, cost savings, and decision support in engineering practice. Moreover, the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test was performed to depict each parameter's impact on the target. The order of parameter importance was t_c> L_c > E_A > t_A > E_c > b_c > f_c > f_A from largest to smallest by 0.9345 > 0.8562 > 0.79354 > 0.7289 > 0.6531 > 0.5718 > 0.4307 > 0.3657. In three training, testing, and all data phases, the superiority of AO - RF with respect to AO - SVR and MARS was obvious. In the training stage, the values of R² and VAF were slightly similar with a tiny superiority of AO - RF compared to AO - SVR with R² equal to 0.9977 and VAF equal to 99.772, but large differences with results of MARS.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.3-20
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• 1990

The multisector model is designed to analyze and forecast structural change in industrial output, employment, capital and relative price as well as macroeconomic change in aggregate income, interest rate, etc. This model has 25 industrial sectors, containing about 1,300 equations. Therefore, this model is characterized by detailed structural disaggregation at the sectoral level. Individual industries are based on many of the economic relationships in the model. This is what distinguishes a multisector model from a macroeconomic model. Each industry is a behavioral agent in the model for industrial investment, employment, prices, wages, and intermediate demand. The strength of the model lies in the simulating the interactions between different industries. The result of its simulation will be introduced in the next paper. In this paper, we only introduce the structure of the multisector model and the coefficients of the equations. The multisector model is a dynamic model-that is, it solves year by year into the future using its own solutions for earlier years. The development of a dynamic, year-by-year solution allows us to combine the change in structure with a consideration of the dynamic adjustment required. These dynamics have obvious advantages in the use of the multisector model for industrial planning. The multisector model is a medium-term and long-term model. Whereas a short-term model can taken the labor supply and capital stock as given, a long-term model must acknowledge that these are determined endogenously. Changes in the medium-term can be analyzed in the context of long-term structural changes. The structure of this model can be summarized as follow. The difference in domestic and world prices affects industrial structure and the pattern of international trade; domestic output and factor price affect factor demand; factor demand and factor price affect industrial income; industrial income and relative price affect industrial consumption. Technical progress, as measured in terms of total factor productivity and relative price affect input-output coefficients; input-output coefficients and relative price determine the industrial input cost; input cost and import price determine domestic price. The differences in productivity and wage growth among different industries affect the relative price.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.12
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• pp.1051-1064
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• 2015

Currently, the H purification plant determines the hourly water intake amount based on operator experience and skill. Therefore, inevitably, there are deviations among operators. While meeting time-varying demand and maintaining the proper water level in the clean water reservoir, the methodology for minimizing electricity cost, when dealing with different electricity rate time zones, is a very complicated problem, which is beyond an operator's capability. To solve this problem, a linear programming (LP) model is proposed, which can determine the optimal hourly water intake amount for minimizing the daily electricity cost. It is shown that an inaccurate estimate for the hourly water usage in the demand areas causes the water level constraint to be violated, which is the weak point of the proposed LP method. However, several examples with real-field data show that we can practically and safely solve this problem with safety margins. It is also shown that the safety margin method still works effectively whether the estimate is accurate or not. The operators need not attend the site at all times under the proposed LP method, and we can additionally expect reductions in labor costs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.95-106
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• 2016

Air transportation demand is consistently increasing in Korea due to economic growth and low cost carriers. For this reason, airport expansion plans are being discussed in Korea. Therefore, it is essential to forecast reliable air transportation demand with adequate methods. However, most of the air transportation demand models in Korea has been developed by simple regression analysis with several dummy variables. Simple regression analysis without considering stationarity of time-series data can bring spurious outputs when a direct causal relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variable does not exist. In this paper, econometric model were developed for air transportation demand based on stationarity in time-series data. Unit root test and co-integration test are used for testing hypothesis of stationarity.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.17-34
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• 2017

This study aims to analyze the freight transport demand and benefit for the introduction of an automated freight transport system focusing on the Global Industry and Logistics City (GILC) in Busan. In pursuit of this aim, four alternatives were calculated - using the freight volume estimating methods and included, the number of businesses, the number of employees set up, future estimated cargo volume, and switched volume from other transport modes into the GILC. Economic benefits were analyzed against social benefits and costs accordingly. The result of the freight transport demand forecast found, the cargo volume of "Alternative 2-1" to be the most advantageous, applying the number of employee unit method and proportion of employees in Gangseo-gu, Busan. In addition to the conventional analysis of direct benefit items (reduction of transport time, traffic accidents and environmental costs), this study also considered additional benefit items (congestion costs savings, and road maintenance costs in terms of opportunity cost). It also considered advanced value for money research in guidance on rail appraisal of U.K, Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2003 of Germany, and RailDec of the United States. The study aims to further contribute to estimating minimum cargo transport demands and assess the economic feasibility of the introduction of new intermodal automated freight transport systems in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.595-625
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• 2012

Recently environment-friendly pellet boilers have interests as emissions of greenhouse gases are regulated internationally and energy security becomes more important to oil addicted countries including Republic of Korea. But the Korean market for pellet boilers is on the initial stage due to the high production costs relative to other conventional boilers. Hence the Korean government has supported financially and promoted the pellet boiler business. In this sense, it would contribute market stratergy and effective promotion policy for both of the government and private companies if we can forecast market shares of pellet boilers appropriately. For this purpose, this study surveyed potential consumers' preferences on pellet boilers among various alternatives using a choice experiment reflecting intangible costs. As the market share of new technology increases, intangible costs decline. According to different intangible cost scenarios, we experimented people's preferences on oil, gas, electric, and pellet boilers. A multinomial logit model was employed to estimate coefficient parameters of common attributes for various alternative boilers. Based on the estimates, we forecasted market shares of individual boilers. We found that as intangible costs decline, the market share of pellet boiler increase substantically while market shares of electric and gas boilers decrease dramatically. The market share of oil boiler did not change significantly. Meanwhile, as people are more rich, more educated, and exposed to advertisement on pellet boilers, the likelihood of choosing the pellet boiler increases.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.89-92
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• 2015

In this paper, we propose a method to reduce the fire suppression time. Our suggestions can secure a safe area according to the diffusion path and speed of the fire, forest fire prediction minimize casualties and property damage forests. The existing path prediction method wildfire spread predict the wildfire spread model and speed through topography, weather, fuel factor and the image information. In this case, however, occur to control a large mountain huge costs. Also Focus on the diffusion model predictions and the path identified by the problem arises that insufficient efforts to ensure the safe area. In this paper, we estimate the moving direction and speed of fire at a lower cost, and proposes an algorithm to ensure the safety zone for fire suppression. The proposed algorithm is a technique to analyze the attribute information that temperature, wind, smoke measured over time. According to our algorithm forecast wildfire moving direction and ensure the safety zone. By analyzing the moving speed and the moving direction of the simulated fire in a given environment is expected to be able to quickly reduce the damage to the forest fire fighters.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.31-40
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• 2009

Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.11
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• pp.3246-3252
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• 2009

The interest on the recovery of thermal energy using the waste has been rising to solve the problems of continuous increase of waste generation and the depletion of the fossil fuel recently. The incineration has been used most popularly as a treatment process of the waste for the energy recovery. However, it is expected that incineration and design cost will increase in the treatment of air contaminant emitted from incinerator. This research has simulated the actual incinerator and the flue gas treatment system using the Aspen plus which is the software to simulate the chemical process. The incineration process is composed of the 1st and 2nd combustor to burn the waste, SNCR process to reduce the $NO_x$ using the urea, and the steam generation process to save the energy during incineration. The $Ca(OH)_2$ slurry was used as an acid gas (HCl, $SO_2$) treatment materials and the removal efficiency for the products from the neutralization of acid gas in SDA and combustion ash was simulated at the bag filter. The simulation result has been corresponded with the treatment efficiency of emitted gas from the actual industrial waste incinerator and it is presumed to be used to forecast the efficiencies of flue gas treatment system in the future.