• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.3-13
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• 2010

개산견적 모델은 예측의 정밀성뿐만 아니라 설계대안 변화에 대한 유연성, 사용자 중심의 효율성을 고려해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 이를 구현하기 위해 건축물을 구성하는 여러 포함시설을 건축양상에 맞게 주요 용도별로 분류하여 공사비 영향변수로 설정한 다음, 통계적 분석을 통해 용도별 시설단가 관계함수를 도출하여 공사비를 예측하는 용도별 분류에 의한 공사비 산정개념을 제안하였다. 그리고 대표적 군사시설인 육군 병영생활관을 대상으로 용도별 공사비 산정 개념을 모델화하고 신규사례를 대상으로 모델의 신뢰성을 검증하였다. 용도별 공사비는 견적의 정밀성을 향상시켰을 뿐만 아니라, 발주자 니즈(Needs)를 반영한 용도별 조합과 그 규모에 따른 맞춤형 공간을 계획할 수 있고 다양한 설계 대안에 대한 비용비교가 가능하다.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제10D권7호
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• pp.1137-1144
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• 2003

소프트웨어 규모를 측정하기 위한 기존의 기능점수 기법은 관리정보 시스템에 적합하도록 구성되어 있으나 최근의 실시간 및 내장형 시스템의 적용성 확장에 따라 완전기능점수(FFP, Full Function Point) 기법이 제안되었다. 그러나, FFP 기반의 소프트웨어 규모 측정 방법에 관한 많은 연구는 이루어지고 있으나, FFP로 측정된 소프트웨어 규모에 대한 개발비용을 추정할 수 있는 모델 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 본 논문은 FFP로 실제 개발된 소프트웨어의 완전기능점수를 기반으로 소프트웨어 개발에 투입될 노력을 추정하는 선형 회귀분석 모델과 거듭제곱 회귀분석 모델을 평가하여 가장 적합한 모델로써 거듭제곱 모델을 선정하였다. 선정된 거듭제곱 모델을 적용할 경우 가장 근사치의 소프트웨어 개발비용을 추정할 수 있음을 보였다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.50-57
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• 2009

공공 건설사업의 계약에 있어 합리적이며 적정한 예정가격의 산정이 가장 중요한 요소라 할 수 있다. 공공 공사 예정가격 산정 근거로 사용되어 온 표준품셈과 더불어 실적공사비 제도를 단계적으로 확대 도입키로 했다. 본 논문에서는 과거에 낙찰되었던 계약단가 뿐 아니라 모든 입찰단가 자료를 활용하여 산출한 실적단가의 변동패턴을 분석하여 예측하는 일련의 절차 및 방법론을 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 신뢰성 있는 자료 확보를 위해 저가입찰 등과 같은 전략적 입찰단가를 제거한 실적단가를 활용하여 시계열 자료를 구성하여 이 시계열을 웨이블릿 분석을 통해 변동 패턴과 추세를 파악하고 신경망을 이용하여 공사비를 예측하는 방안을 주요하게 다루고 있다. 건설 공사비는 매우 다양한 특성을 내포하고 있으므로 그 예측이 어려울 뿐만 아니라 그 오차 또한 매우 클 것으로 예상된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 웨이블릿 변환을 통하여 다양한 특성의 변동을 찾아내어 이를 예측에 이용함으로써 예측력을 높이고자 하였다. 다만 시계열이 매우 단기간의 자료로 구축되어 변동의 양상이 정확하게 분석될 수 없었으나 지속적으로 실적공사비 자료기 축적되어 장기간의 자료를 바탕으로 시계열이 구축된다면 향후 수행될 건설사업의 기획 시 개략적인 공사비 산출에 참고할수 있는 유용한 자료로 활용될수 있을 것이다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.53-69
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• 2018

Background: This study investigates association modified category medical specialization (CMS) and hospital charge, length of stay (LOS), and mortality among lumbar spine disease inpatients. Methods: This study used National Health Insurance Service-cohort sample database from 2002 to 2013, using stratified representative sampling released by the National Health Insurance Service. A total of 56,622 samples were analyzed. The primary analysis was based on generalized estimating equation model accounting for correlation among individuals within each hospital. Results: Inpatients admitted with lumbar spine disease at hospitals with higher modified CMS had a shorter LOS (estimate, -1.700; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.886 to -1.514; p<0.0001). Inpatients admitted with lumbar spine disease at hospitals with higher modified CMS had a lower mortality rate (odds ratio, 0.635; 95% CI, 0.521 to 0.775; p<0.0001). Inpatients admitted with lumbar spine disease at hospitals with higher modified CMS had higher hospital cost per case (estimate, 192,658 Korean won; 95% CI, 125,701 to 259,614; p<0.0001). However, inpatients admitted with lumbar spine surgery patients at hospitals with higher modified CMS had lower hospital cost per case (estimate, -152,060 Korean won; 95% CI, -287,236 to -16,884; p=0.028). Inpatients admitted with lumbar spine disease at hospitals with higher modified CMS had higher hospital cost per diem (estimate, 55,694 Korean won; 95% CI, 46,205 to 65,183; p<0.0001). Conclusion: Our results showed that increase in hospital specialization had a substantial effect on decrease in hospital cost per case, LOS, and mortality, and on increase in hospital cost per diem among lumbar spine disease surgery patients.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.495-506
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• 2021

본 연구는 기획단계에서 이루어지는 개산견적 예측 모델의 정확도를 향상시키기 위하여 최적의 영향요인 조합을 제시하였다. 이에 기획단계에서 활용이 가능한 정량적인 영향요인을 선정하여 상관분석 통해 공사비에 가장 많은 영향을 주는 연면적을 중심으로 8가지의 영향요인 조합을 설정하였다. 8가지 영향요인 조합을 다중회귀분석을 통하여 VIF계수 및 회귀식을 도출하였다. VIF계수를 통해 연면적, 건축면적과 층 영향요인을 함께 사용할 경우 연면적과 건축면적 두 영향요인 간의 종속적인 관계를 확인하였다. 이에 독립성이 예측 모델 정확도의 관계를 분석하기 위하여 실 사례 프로젝트 10건을 회귀식에 대입하여 정확도를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 독립성이 확보가 안 된 영향요인 조합은 다른 영향요인에 비해 정확도 떨어지는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 따라서 최대한 많은 영향요인을 활용하는 것보다 최적의 영향요인 조합을 선정하는 것이 예측 모델의 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있다고 판단되며, 본 연구에서는 연면적과 건축면적을 활용하였을 경우 정확도가 가장 높은 것을 확인하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1183-1188
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• 2009

Estimating project costs during the early stage of conceptual planning is very important when deciding whether to approve the project and allocate an appropriate budget. However, due to greater uncertainties involved in a project, it is challenging to estimate costs during this initial stage within a reasonable tolerance. This paper attempts to develop a cost-estimate model for public road projects under these circumstances and limitations. In the conceptual planning stage of a road project, there is only limited information for cost estimation, for example, such input data as total length of the route, origin and destination, number of lanes, general geographic characteristics of the route, and other basic attributes. This implies that the model should individuate suitable but restricted information without considering detailed features such as quantity of earthwork and a detailed route of a given condition. With these limited facts, this paper applies a case-based reasoning (CBR) method to solve a new problem by deriving similar past problems, which in turn is used to estimate the cost of a given project based on best-fitted previous cases. To develop a CBR cost-estimate model, the authors classified 8 representative variables, including project type, the number of lanes, total length, road design grades, etc. Then, we developed the CBR model, primarily by using 180 actual cases of public road projects, procured over the last decade. With the CBR model, it was found that the degree of error in estimation can be reasonably reduced, to below approximately 30% compared to the final costs estimated upon the completion of detailed design.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2018

The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade cost on export: A Case Study Vietnam. The study conducts a static linear panel data analysis on annual data covering bilateral export between Vietnam and 70 major importers of Vietnam from 2001 to 2013. The gravity model has been one of the most successful applications in empirical trade. In this paper we apply the gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The paper uses gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The empirical results derive from a static linear panel data analysis (fixed effects model) indicates that trade cost plays a crucial role in determining the export value that occurs between Vietnam and trading partners. Besides, population of importing country, trade openness of importing country, gross domestic product of importing country and gross domestic product of Vietnam are also significant determinants of Vietnamese bilateral export value. The main findings indicates that trade cost plays a very important role in the Vietnamese bilateral export performance. This suggests that the Vietnamese government should attempt to improve domestic trade costs to enhance competitiveness and increase export growth sustainably.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.177-183
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• 2006

Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.475-478
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• 2013

To carry out a one-off construction project successfully, effective and accurate early cost estimation is crucial, especially during the conceptual stage where very limited minimum information of construction project is given. As the level of accuracy of the early cost estimation has huge impacts on precise budgeting and cost management of a project, in other words, reducing the risk of a project, cost must be managed with special awareness. In an effort to improve the estimate accuracy of cost during the conceptual stage, this research introduces a Parameter Impact (PI) which can quantify weights of parameters and rank them; and PI development derived from the principle of impulse in physics is explicated. For a case study, 76 public apartment building cases in Korea are analyzed. To examine the validity of the proposed PI, a validation in terms of CBR applicability test and estimate accuracy comparisons using 10-nearest neighbor cases are carried out. The validation results support that the suggested PI can be applied in quantifying the weights of the parameters and CBR method for early cost estimation.

• 한국병원경영학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2021

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to estimate incomes and costs of the medical clinics by using secondary data. Methodology: The medical incomes and costs were estimated from 405 clinics operated by sole practitioner providing out-patient services among all clinics subject to the Medical Cost Survey on National Health Insurance Patients in 2017, excluding dental clinics and oriental medical clinics. The incomes and costs of the medical clinics were reflected with incomes and costs of health insurance benefits and were calculated by types of medical services (i.e., basic care, surgery, general treatment, functional test, specimen test and imaging test). The costs were classified as follows: labor costs, equipment costs, material costs and overhead costs. Secondary data was used to estimate the incomes and costs of the medical clinics. For allocation bases for costs for each type of the medical service, the ratio of revenue from health insurance benefits by types of medical services was applied. However, labor costs were calculated with the activity ratio by types of medical services and occupations, using clinical expert panel data. Finding: The percentage of health insurance income for all medical income was 73.1%. The health insurance cost per clinic was 401,864 thousand won. Labor cost accounted for the largest portion of the health insurance income was 191,229 thousand won (47.6%), followed by management cost was 170,018 thousand won (42.3%), materials cost was 35,434 thousand won (8.8%), and equipment costs was 5,183 thousand won (1.3%). Practical Implications: This study suggests a method of estimating incomes and costs of medical clinic services by using secondary data. It could efficiently provide incomes and costs to assess an appropriate level of the health insurance fee to the clinics.