• 대기
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.243-256
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• 2011

This paper presents the development of new algorithm for identifying and tracking the convective cells in three dimensional reflectivity fields in Cartesian coordinates. First, the radar volume data in spherical coordinate system has been converted into Cartesian coordinate system by the bilinear interpolation. The three-dimensional convective cell has then been identified as a group of spatially consecutive grid points using reflectivity and volume thresholds. The tracking algorithm utilizes a fuzzy logic with four membership functions and their weights. The four fuzzy parameters of speed, area change ratio, reflectivity change ratio, and axis transformation ratio have been newly defined. In order to make their membership functions, the normalized frequency distributions are calculated using the pairs of manually matched cells in the consecutive radar reflectivity fields. The algorithms have been verified for two convective events in summer season. Results show that the algorithms have properly identified storm cells and tracked the same cells successively. The developed algorithms may provide useful short-term forecasting or nowcasting capability of convective storm cells and provide the statistical characteristics of severe weather.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.17-23
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is possibility of the heavy rainfall prediction using instability index. The convective instability index using this study is Convective Available Potential Energy(CAPE) concerned the growth energy of the storm, Bulk Richardson Number(BRN) concerned the type and strength of the storm, and Sotrm Relative Helicity(SRH) concerned maintenance of the storm. To verify the instability index, the simulation of heavy rainfall case experiment by Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) model(MM5) are designed. The results of this study summarized that the heavy rainfall related to the high instability index and the proper combination of one more instability index made the higher heavy rainfall prediction.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2002

Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict flash floods. In this study, a Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was developed by incorporating the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems and by using neural network approach. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters as input. The convective classification and tracking system (CCATS) was used to identify and quantify storm properties such as lifetime, area, eccentricity, and track. As in standard expert prediction systems, the fundamental structure of the neural network model was learned from the hydroclimatology of the relationships between weather system, rainfall production and streamflow response in the study area. All these processes stretched leadtime up to 18 hours. The QFF model will be applied to the mid-Atlantic region of United States in a forthcoming paper.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.317-338
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• 2008

Analyses of observational data and numerical simulations were performed to understand the mechanism of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) occurred on 13-14 July 2004 over Jindo area of the Korean Peninsula. Observations indicated that synoptic environment was favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall. This heavy rainfall appeared to have been enhanced by convergence around the Changma front and synoptic scale lifting. From the analyses of storm environment using Haenam upper-air observation data, it was confirmed that strong convective instability was present around the Jindo area. Instability indices such as K-index, SSI-index showed favorable condition for strong convection. In addition, warm advection in the lower troposphere and cold advection in the middle troposphere were detected from wind profiler data. The size of storm, that produced heavy rainfall over Jindo area, was smaller than $50{\times}50km^2$ according to radar observation. The storm developed more than 10 km in height, but high reflectivity (rain rate 30 mm/hr) was limited under 6 km. It can be judged that convection cells, which form cloud clusters, occurred on the inflow area of the Changma front. In numerical simulation, high CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) was found in the southwest of the Korean Peninsula. However, heavy rainfall was restricted to the Jindo area with high CIN (Convective INhibition) and high CAPE. From the observations of vertical drop size distribution from MRR (Micro Rain Radar) and the analyses of numerically simulated hydrometeors such as graupel etc., it can be inferred that melted graupels enhanced collision and coalescence process of heavy precipitation systems.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.109-117
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 하천유역에 대한 호우의 방향성을 von Mises 분포를 이용하여 정량화하고, 그 대표 이동방향을 결정하였다. 추가로 호우 발생특성(장마, 태풍, 대류성 강우)에 따른 호우의 방향적 특성을 도출하여 비교하였다. 대상유역인 내성천 유역에서 수집된 101개 호우사상을 이용한 결과, von Mises 분포는 대상 호우사상의 방향적 특성이 적절히 표현됨을 확인하였다. 또한 호우의 이동방향은 그 발생특성에 따라 차이를 보이며, 이들 특성은 한반도의 기후특성과도 일치함을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 호우 이동방향에 따른 유출응답의 차이를 보다 정량적으로 파악하는데 도움이 될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제11권9호
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• pp.865-880
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• 2002

As prevailing synoptic scale westerly wind blowing over high steep Mt. Taegulyang in the west of Kangnung coastal city toward the Sea of Japan became downslope wind and easterly upslope wind combined with both valley wind and sea breeze(valley-sea breeze) also blew from the sea toward the top of the mountain, two different kinds of wind regimes confronted each other in the mid of eastern slope of the mountain and further downward motion of downlsope wind along the eastern slope of the mountain should be prohibited by the upslope wind. Then, the upslope wind away from the eastern slope of the mountain went up to 1700m height over the ground, becoming an easterly return flow in the upper level of the sea. Two kinds of circulations were detected with a small one in the coastal sea and a large one from the coast toward the open sea. Convective boundary layer was developed with a thickness of about 1km over the ground in the upwind side of the mountain in the west, while a thickness of thermal internal boundary layer(TIBL) form the coast along the eastern slope of the mountain was only confined to less than 200m. After sunset, under no prohibition of upslope wind, westerly downslope wind blew from the top of the mountain toward the coastal basin and the downslope wind should be intensified by both mountain wind and land breeze(mountain-land breeze) induced by nighttime radiative cooling of the ground surfaces, resulting in the formation of downslope wind storm. The wind storm caused the development of internal gravity waves with hydraulic jump motion bounding up toward the upper level of the sea in the coastal plain and relatively moderate wind on the sea.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.123-134
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• 2002

A developed Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was applied to the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The model incorporated the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems of the study area for improved flood forecasting. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters associated with synoptic atmospheric conditions as Input. Here, we present results from the application of the Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model in 2 small watersheds along the leeward side of the Appalachian Mountains in the mid-Atlantic region. Threat scores consistently above 0.6 and close to 0.8 ∼ 0.9 were obtained fur 18 hour lead-time forecasts, and skill scores of at least 40% and up to 55 % were obtained.

• 대기
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

An unusual autumn storm developed rapidly in the western part of the East sea on the early morning of 23 October 2006. This storm produced a record-breaking heavy rain and strong wind in the northern and middle part of the Yeong-dong region; 24-h rainfall of 304 mm over Gangneung and wind speed exceeding 63.7 m $s^{-1}$ over Sokcho. In this study, MTSAT-1R (Multi-fuctional Transport Satellite) water vapor and infrared channel imagery are examined to find out some features which are dynamically associated with the development of the storm. These features may be the precursor signals of the rapidly developing storm and can be employed for very short range forecast and nowcasting of severe storm. The satellite features are summarized: 1) MTSAT-1R Water Vapor imagery exhibited that distinct dark region develops over the Yellow sea at about 12 hours before the occurrence of maximum rainfall about 1100 KST on 23 October 2006. After then, it changes gradually into dry intrusion. This dark region in the water vapor image is closely related with the positive anomaly in 500 hPa Potential Vorticity field. 2) In the Infrared imagery, low stratus (brightness temperature: $0{\sim}5^{\circ}C$) develops from near Bo-Hai bay and Shanfung peninsula and then dissipates partially on the western coast of Korean peninsula. These features are found at 10~12 hours before the maximum rainfall occurrence, which are associated with the cold and warm advection in the lower troposphere. 3) The IR imagery reveals that two convective cloud cells (brightness temperature below $-50^{\circ}C$) merge each other and after merging it grows up rapidly over the western part of East sea at about 5 hours before the maximum rainfall occurrence. These features remind that there must be the upward flow in the upper troposphere and the low-layer convergence over the same region of East sea. The time of maximum growth of the convective cloud agrees well with the time of the maximum rainfall.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.41-51
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• 2005

Using three-dimensional non-hydrostatical numerical model with one way double nesting technique, atmo­spheric circulation in the mountainous coastal region in summer was investigated from August 13 through 15, 1995. During the day, synoptic westerly wind blows over Mt. Mishrung in the west of a coastal city, Sokcho toward the East Sea, while simultaneously, easterly upslope wind combined with both valley wind from plain (coast) toward mountain and sea-breeze from sea toward inland coast blows toward the top of the mountain. Two different directional wind systems confront each other in the mid of eastern slope of the mountain and the upslope wind goes up to the height over 2 km, becoming an easterly return flow in the upper level over the sea and making sea-breeze front with two kinds of sea-breeze circulations of a small one in the coast and a large one in the open sea. Convective boundary layer is developed with a thickness of about 1km over the ground in the upwind side of the mountain in the west and a thickness of thermal internal boundary layer from the coast along the eastern slope of the mountain is only confined to less than 200 m. On the other hand, after sunset, no prohibition of upslope wind generated during the day and downward wind combined with mountain wind from mountain towardplain and land-breeze from land toward under nocturnal radiative cooling of the ground surfaces should intensify westerly downslope wind, resulting in the formation of wind storm. As the wind storm moving down along the eastern slop causes the development of internal gravity waves with hydraulic jump motion in the coast, bounding up toward the upper level of the coastal sea, atmospheric circulation with both onshore and offshore winds like sea-breeze circulation forms in the coastal sea within 70 km until midnight and after that, westerly wind prevails in the coast and open seas.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.33-45
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• 2011

이 연구는 TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 위성의 강수레이더인 PR(Precipitation Radar)의 5년간 (2002-2006) 6-8월 동안의 산출물을 분석하여 한반도 주변 지역과 동아시아의 아열대 및 열대 지역의 강우와 강우구름의 연직 구조 특성을 강우유형별로 분류하여 조사하였다. 한반도 주변 지역은 12.2%의 대류형 강우 비율로 다른 지역과 비교하여 약 6% 작았으며, 단위면적당의 강우 발생 빈도는 특히 열대지역의 50% 정도였다. 또한 한반도 주변 지역은 대류형에서 40% 더 강한 강우강도(10.4 mm/h)를 만들어내며, 층운형의 경우 세 지역 모두 비슷한 강우강도를 나타냈다. 평균적으로 강우강도는 운정고도와 비례하는 관계를 보였다. 레이더 반사도의 연직 구조를 통해 한반도 주변의 대류운은 연직적으로 매우 발달한 구름으로 더 높은 강우강도와 연관되어 있었다. 특히 열대지역의 대류형 강우구름들은 약 5 km의 고도 이하에서 지표에 접근함에 따라 수적들의 충돌병합에 의해 뚜렷한 레이더 반사도의 증가를 보였으며, 층운형 강우구름들은 더욱 뚜렷한 밝은 띠를 갖고 있었다. 한편 대류형에서 레이더 반사도의 첫 번째 경험직교함수 구조는 세 지역이 매우 비슷하지만, 두 번째 경험직교함수는 조금 다른 모습을 보였다. 한반도 주변 지역과 열대지역은 각각 상층과 하층에 큰 변동성을 보였다.