• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence probability

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A Note on Sometimes Pooling Rules (때때로 풀링의 규칙에 관한 소고)

  • Lim, Yong-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.615-620
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    • 2008
  • In engineering experiments, 'Sometimes Pooling Rules' to remove insignificant terms from the model has been implemented to increase the power of detecting the small size of main effects when the preliminary test of higher order interaction effects declare to be insignificant. In this note, we review the sometimes pooling rules in the literature and also study the probability of the length of 95% confidence interval of ${\mu}_1-{\mu}_2$ of the comparison of two independent samples being shorter than that of the paired comparison at the various level of significance ${\alpha}_1$ of the preliminary test and the insufficient number of blocks n in [2,13], given the block effects being pooled to the error term. This study supports that the sometimes pooling results in the power improvement of the main effects.

Validity assessment of VaR with Laplacian distribution (라플라스 분포 기반의 VaR 측정 방법의 적정성 평가)

  • Byun, Bu-Guen;Yoo, Do-Sik;Lim, Jongtae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1263-1274
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    • 2013
  • VaR (value at risk), which represents the expectation of the worst loss that may occur over a period of time within a given level of confidence, is currently used by various financial institutions for the purpose of risk management. In the majority of previous studies, the probability of return has been modeled with normal distribution. Recently Chen et al. (2010) measured VaR with asymmetric Laplacian distribution. However, it is difficult to estimate the mode, the skewness, and the degree of variance that determine the shape of an asymmetric Laplacian distribution with limited data in the real-world market. In this paper, we show that the VaR estimated with (symmetric) Laplacian distribution model provides more accuracy than those with normal distribution model or asymmetric Laplacian distribution model with real world stock market data and with various statistical measures.

Estimating the Five-Year Survival of Cervical Cancer Patients Treated in Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia

  • Razak, Nuradhiathy Abd;Khattak, M.N.;Zubairi, Yong Zulina;Naing, Nyi Nyi;Zaki, Nik Mohamed
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.825-828
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    • 2013
  • Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the five-year survival among patients with cervical cancer treated in Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia. Methods: One hundred and twenty cervical cancer patients diagnosed between $1^{st}$ July 1995 and $30^{th}$ June 2007 were identified. Data were obtained from medical records. The survival probability was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was applied to compare the survival distribution between groups. Results: The overall five-year survival was 39.7% [95%CI (Confidence Interval): 30.7, 51.3] with a median survival time of 40.8 (95%CI: 34.0, 62.0) months. The log-rank test showed that there were survival differences between the groups for the following variables: stage at diagnosis (p=0.005); and primary treatment (p=0.0242). Patients who were diagnosed at the latest stage (III-IV) were found to have the lowest survival, 18.4% (95%CI: 6.75, 50.1), compared to stage I and II where the five-year survival was 54.7% (95%CI: 38.7, 77.2) and 40.8% (95%CI: 27.7, 60.3), respectively. The five-year survival was higher in patients who received surgery [52.6% (95%CI: 37.5, 73.6)] as a primary treatment compared to the non-surgical group [33.3% (95%CI: 22.9, 48.4)]. Conclusion: The five-year survival of cervical cancer patients in this study was low. The survival of those diagnosed at an advanced stage was low compared to early stages. In addition, those who underwent surgery had higher survival than those who had no surgery for primary treatment.

Influence of Moisture Content and Seed Dimensions on Mechanical Oil Expression from African Oil Bean (Pentaclethra macrophylla Benth) Seed

  • Aremu, Ademola K.;Ogunlade, Clement A.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: New low-cost oilseeds are needed to meet an ever-increasing demand for oil for food, pharmaceutical, and industrial applications. African oil bean seed is a tropical crop that is underutilized and has high oil yields, but there have been no studies conducted on its mechanical oil expression up to now. The objective of this work was to investigate the effect of moisture content and seed dimensions on mechanical oil expression from the seeds. Methods: Fresh oil bean seeds were procured, de-hulled, and cleaned. Initial seed moisture content, obtained in accordance with the ASAE standard, was 12% dry basis (db). The seeds were further conditioned by dehydration and rehydration prior to oil expression to obtain four other moisture levels of 8, 10, 14, and 16% db. The major diameter of the seeds was measured using digital vernier calipers, and the seeds were classified into size dimensions (< 40, 41-45, 46-50, 51-55, and > 55 mm). The oil yield and expression efficiency were obtained in accordance with standard evaluation methods. Results: The highest oil yield and expression efficiency (47.74% and 78.96%, respectively) were obtained for a moisture content of 8% db and seed dimensions of < 40 mm, while the lowest oil yield and expression efficiency (41.35% and 68.28%, respectively) were obtained for a moisture content of 14% db and seed dimensions between 51-55 mm. A mathematical model was developed to predict oil yield for known moisture content and seed dimensions, with a coefficient of determination $R^2$ of 95% and the confidence level of the predictive model of 84.17%. The probability of prediction F ratio showed that moisture content influence was more significant than seed dimensions. Conclusions: The higher the moisture content and larger the seed dimensions, the lower the oil yield from African oil bean seeds.

Higher Accident Rates for Older Drivers at Specific Urban Intersections Study on the Improvement of the Road Geometry (고령운전자를 고려한 도시부 교차로 기하구조 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Chong, Sang Min;Choi, Jai sung;Lee, Jong hak;Lee, Hyun gu
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : With the increasing number of older drivers in an aging society, there is a growing need for research and planning on traffic safety for the older drivers using an improved road geometry design. This study also proposed a modified urban road interchange design, which aims to keep the older drivers away from accident-prone and high-traffic areas of the city. METHODS : In this study, we examined accident data records of older drivers to identify accident-prone zones and intersections; we studied the road geometry at these zones and analyzed if it was an underlying cause for higher number of accidents. Based on the research and subsequent analysis, we suggested plans for improvement of road geometry design at these intersections. RESULTS :By studying historic data and analyzing factors that affect the likelihood of accidents of vehicles driven by older drivers and after studying suitable traffic accident prediction models, we identified the major variables that need to be modified at accident-prone intersections, such as the width of a left turn lane at an intersection and the radius of the right turn lane at a street corner. The results have a significance probability of less than 0.001 and a 95% confidence level. To improve safety at the identified intersection, this study suggests the installation of a left-turn-lane-shaped Positive Offset and a right-turn-lane-shaped Slip Lane concept and an adjustment of intervals between intersections.

Oral rehabilitation of Papillon-Lefèvre syndrome patients by dental implants: a systematic review

  • Atarbashi-Moghadam, Fazele;Atarbashi-Moghadam, Saede;Kazemifard, Setare;Sijanivandi, Soran;Namdari, Mahshid
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.220-227
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: Papillon-Lefèvre syndrome (PLS) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder. These patients lose their teeth at a young age and are in need of prosthetic rehabilitation. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the success of dental implant placement in these patients. Materials and Methods: An electronic search was performed in PubMed Central, Scopus, and Web of Science using the keyword "Papillon-Lefèvre syndrome" AND "dental implant" OR "prosthodontics". Articles reporting implant placement in patients with PLS until July 2019 were included. Results: Assessment of the included 11 articles reporting 15 cases showed 136 implant placements in these patients. Implant failure occurred in 3 patients (20 implants). The peri-implantitis and failure rate was higher in the maxilla. Meta-analysis showed the probability of failure to be 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0%-31%) for maxillary implants and 2% (95% CI 0%-9%) for mandibular implants. The follow-up time ranged between 1 and 20 years. Healing after bone graft and implant placement in these patients was uneventful. Conclusion: Dental implants may be a viable treatment option for PLS patients. Implantation can help preserve alveolar bone if the patients' immunological and growing conditions are well-considered and proper oral hygiene and compliance with the maintenance program are continued.

Anti-Müllerian hormone as a predictor of polycystic ovary syndrome treated with clomiphene citrate

  • Hestiantoro, Andon;Negoro, Yuwono Sri;Afrita, Yohana;Wiweko, Budi;Sumapradja, Kanadi;Natadisastra, Muharam
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.207-214
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    • 2016
  • Objective: This study aimed to determine the threshold of $anti-M{\ddot{u}}llerian$ hormone (AMH) as predictor of follicular growth failure in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients treated with clomiphene citrate (CC). Methods: Fifty female subjects with PCOS were recruited and divided into two groups based on successful and unsuccessful follicular growth. Related variables such as age, infertility duration, cigarette smoking, use of Moslem hijab, sunlight exposure, fiber intake, body mass index, waist circumference, AMH level, 25-hydroxy vitamin D level, and growth of dominant follicles were obtained, assessed, and statistically analyzed. Results: The AMH levels of patients with successful follicular growth were significantly lower (p= 0.001) than those with unsuccessful follicular growth ($6.10{\pm}3.52$ vs. $10.43{\pm}4.78ng/mL$). A higher volume of fiber intake was also observed in the successful follicular growth group compared to unsuccessful follicular growth group (p= 0.001). Our study found the probability of successful follicle growth was a function of AMH level and the amount of fiber intake, expressed as Y =-2.35+($-0.312{\times}AMH\;level$)+($0.464{\times}fiber\;intake$) (area under the curve, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.98; p< 0.001). Conclusion: The optimal threshold of AMH level in predicting the failure of follicle growth in patients with PCOS treated with CC was 8.58 ng/mL.

Development of e-Commerce System Based on Social Network Service (SNS 기반 e커머스 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Tong-Queue
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.153-158
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    • 2018
  • Fundamental problems of e-commerce are exaggerated advertising of products, lack of trust in products or suppliers, and false reviews. As a solution, I have merged the concept of trust service embedded in social network service(SNS) with commercial domain to develop a new type of service called "Reliable SNS Commerce Service". The contents developed in this paper are as follows: first, online community functions for users to provide services; second, commerce functions; and third, functions for linking SNS and commerce. Through the reliability information presented in this paper, the seller provides more reliable and objective purchase information to the buyer about the sales items, thereby contributing to the sales by increasing the probability of the actual purchase. The buyer can purchase the higher-quality products with confidence. The service providers can gain the reputation as a reliable site for purchasing members. In conclusion, this paper provides a positive effect to all the participants, which will contribute to the development of a new commerce market and activation of electronic commerce.

Association between body mass index and hepatitis B antibody seropositivity in children

  • Kwon, Yoowon;Jeong, Su Jin
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.62 no.11
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    • pp.416-421
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    • 2019
  • Background: The seropositivity rate of hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) antibodies is known to be ≥95% after hepatitis B virus vaccination during infancy. However, a low level or absence of anti-HBs in healthy children is discovered in many cases. Recent studies in adults reported that a reduced anti-HBs production rate is related to obesity. Purpose: To investigate whether body mass index (BMI) affects anti-HBs levels in healthy children following 3 serial dose vaccinations in infancy. Methods: We recruited 1,200 healthy volunteers aged 3, 5, 7, or 10 years from 4-day care centers and 4 elementary schools. All subjects completed a questionnaire including body weight, height, and vaccine type received. Levels of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-HBs in all subjects were analyzed using electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. The standardized scores (z score) for each sex and age were obtained using the lambda-mu-sigma method in the 2017 Korean National Growth Charts for children and adolescents. Results: Our subjects (n=1,200) comprised 750 males (62.5%) and 450 females (37.5%). The overall anti-HBs seropositivity rate was 57.9% (695 of 1,200). We identified significant differences in mean BMI values between seronegative and seropositive groups (17.45 vs. 16.62, respectively; P<0.001). The anti-HBs titer was significantly decreased as the BMI z score increased adjusting for age and sex (B=-15.725; standard error=5.494; P=0.004). The probability of anti-HBs seropositivity based on BMI z score was decreased to an OR of 0.820 after the control for confounding variables (95% confidence interval, 0.728-0.923; P=0.001). Conclusion: There was a significant association between anti-HBs titer and BMI z score after adjustment for age and sex. Our results indicate that BMI is a potential factor affecting anti-HBs titer in healthy children.

Bayesian Reliability Analysis Using Kriging Dimension Reduction Method(KDRM) (크리깅 기반 차원감소법을 이용한 베이지안 신뢰도 해석)

  • An, Da-Un;Choi, Joo-Ho;Won, Jun-Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.275-280
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    • 2008
  • A technique for reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) is developed based on the Bayesian approach, which can deal with the epistemic uncertainty arising due to the limited number of data. Until recently, the conventional REDO was implemented mostly by assuming the uncertainty as aleatory which means the statistical properties are completely known. In practice, however, this is not the case due to the insufficient data for estimating the statistical information, which makes the existing RBDO methods less useful. In this study, a Bayesian reliability is introduced to take account of the epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as the lower confidence bound of the probability distribution of the original reliability. In this case, the Bayesian reliability requires double loop of the conventional reliability analyses, which can be computationally expensive. Kriging based dimension reduction method(KDRM), which is a new efficient tool for the reliability analysis, is employed to this end. The proposed method is illustrated using a couple of numerical examples.