• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence probability

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A Study on Minimum Number of Ship-handling Simulation Required for Evaluating Vessel's Proximity Measure

  • Jeong, Tae-Gweon;Pan, Bao-Feng
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.689-694
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government has introduced and enforced maritime traffic safety assessment to secure traffic safety since 2010. The maritime traffic safety assessment is needed by law to design a new port or modify an existing one. According to Korea Maritime Safety Act, in the assessment the propriety of marine traffic system consists of the safety of channel transit and berthing/unberthing maneuver, safety of mooring, and safety of marine traffic flow. The safety of channel transit and berthing/unberthing maneuver can be evaluated only by ship-handling simulation. The ship-handling simulation is carried out by sea pilots working with the port concerned. The vessel's proximity measure is an important factor to evaluate traffic safety. The proximity measure is composed of vessel's closest distance to channel boundary and probability of grounding/collision. What is more, the probability of grounding becomes important. According to central limit theorem, a sample has a normal distribution on condition that its size is more than 30. However, more than 30 simulation runs bring about the increase of assessment period and difficulty of employing sea pilots. Therefore this paper is to find out minimum sample size for evaluating vessel's proximity. First sample sets of size of 3, 5, 7, 9 etc. are selected randomly on the basis of normal distribution. And then KS test for goodness of fit and t-test for confidence interval are applied to each sample set. Finally this paper decides the minimum sample size. As a result this paper suggests the minimum sample size of 5, that is, the simulation of more than five times.

A study on the validity to make a diagnosis of Soeumin by QSCC II (Questionnaire for the Sasang Constitution Classification II) (사상체질분류검사지(四象體質分類檢査紙)(QSCC) II 에 의한 소음인(少陰人) 진단(診斷)의 타당성(妥當性) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Su-Kyung;Lee, Eui-Ju;Koh, Byung-Hee;Song, Il-Byung;Kim, Sang-Bok
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.94-103
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to examine validity to Soeum scales by QSCC II. For this study, the objects are 336 patients who were made a diagnosis of Soeumin and 422 patients of other constitutions in Oriental Medicine & Western Medicine Cooperative Health Examination Center KyungHee University Medical Center. A systematic analysis has been made and the results are as follows. 1. We made a frequency analysis in 758 examinees' questions and concluded that 35 questions, among which 30 questions were existing and 5 were new, had statistical significance in making a diagnosis of Soeumin by more than 10% in comparison with answer frequency of other constitutions. 2. Because confidence coefficient of 0.8011 revised Soeum scales(35) rises up as compared with that of 0.6319 existing Soeum scales(51), I think revised Soeum scales reflect trait of Soeumin well and it is liable to shorten question time by controling questions. 3. Soeumin's discrimination probability in Soeumin was 55.4% by QSCCII, but that rises up to 64.3% by discriminant function made by revised Soeum scales. So there is statistical significance in discriminant function. 4. When questions in QSCCII are divided into body-spirit(體形氣像), looks-attitude(容貌詞氣), temper- talent(性質才幹), continuous mind(恒心), avarice(心慾), physiological symptoms(生理的 證) and pathological symptoms(病理的 證), response frequency and constitution discrimination probability falls in questions about avarice and pathological symptoms.

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Exploring Regional Disparities in Unmet Healthcare Needs and Their Causes in South Korea: A Policy-Oriented Study (한국 미충족 의료 니즈 수준 및 발생 사유의 거주지역 간 격차 분석과 정책적 시사점)

  • Woojin Chung
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.273-294
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    • 2023
  • Background: Most developed countries are working to improve their universal health coverage systems. This study investigates regional disparities in unmet healthcare needs and their causes in South Korea. Additionally, it compares the unmet healthcare needs rate in South Korea with that of 33 European countries. Methods: The analysis incorporates information from 13,359 adults aged 19 or older, using data from the Korea Health Panel. The dependent variables encompass the experience of unmet healthcare needs and the three causes of occurrence: "burden of medical expenses," "time constraints," and "lack of care." The primary variable of interest is the region of residence, while control variables encompass 14 socio-demographic, health, and functional characteristics. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis, accounting for the sampling design, is conducted. Results: The rate of unmet healthcare needs in Korea is 11.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0%-13.3%), which is approximately 30 times higher than that of Austria (0.4%). The causes of unmet healthcare needs, ranked in descending order, are "lack of care," "time constraints," and "burden of medical expenses." Predictive probabilities for experiencing unmet healthcare needs and each cause differ significantly between regions. For instance, the probability of experiencing unmet healthcare needs due to "lack of care" is approximately 10 times higher in Gangwon-do (13.5%; 95% CI, 13.0%-14.1%) than in Busan (1.3%; 95% CI, 1.3%-1.4%). The probability due to "burden of medical expenses" is approximately 14 times higher in Seoul (4.1%; 95% CI, 3.6%-4.6%) compared to Jeollanam-do (0.3%; 95% CI, 0.2%-0.4%). Conclusion: Amid rapid sociodemographic transitions, South Korea must make significant efforts to alleviate unmet healthcare needs and the associated regional disparities. To effectively achieve this, it is recommended that South Korea involves the National Assembly in healthcare policy-making, while maintaining a centralized financing model and delegating healthcare planning and implementation to regional authorities for their local residents-similar to the approaches of the United Kingdom and France.

Statistical Approach for Determination of Compliance with Clearance Criteria Based upon Types of Radionuclide Distributions in a Very Low-Level Radioactive Waste (극저준위 방사성폐기물의 방사성핵종 분포유형에 기초하여 자체처분기준 만족여부를 판단하기 위한 통계학적 접근방법)

  • Cheong, Jae-Hak
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2010
  • A statistical evaluation methodology was developed to determine the compliance of candidate waste stream with clearance criteria based upon distribution of radionuclide in a waste stream at a certain confidence level. For the cases where any information on the radionuclide distribution is not available, the relation between arithmetic mean of radioactivity concentration and its acceptable maximum standard deviation was demonstrated by applying widely-known Markov Inequality and One-side Chebyshev Inequality. The relations between arithmetic mean and its acceptable maximum standard deviation were newly derived for normally or lognormally distributed radionuclide in a waste stream, using probability density function, cumulative density function, and other statistical relations. The evaluation methodology was tested for a representative case at 95% of confidence level and 100 Bq/g of clearance level of radioactivity concentration, and then the acceptable range of standard deviation at a given arithmetic mean was quantitatively shown and compared, by varying the type of radionuclide distribution. Furthermore, it was statistically demonstrated that the allowable range of clearance can be expanded, even at the same confidence level, if information on the radionuclide distribution is available.

A Study to Validate the Pretest Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodule (사전검사를 통한 고립성 폐결절 환자에서의 악성 확률 타당성에 대한 연구)

  • Jang, Joo Hyun;Park, Sung Hoon;Choi, Jeong Hee;Lee, Chang Youl;Hwang, Yong Il;Shin, Tae Rim;Park, Yong Bum;Lee, Jae Young;Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Cheol Hong;Park, Sang Myeon;Kim, Dong Gyu;Lee, Myung Goo;Hyun, In Gyu;Jung, Ki Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2009
  • Background: Solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) are encountered incidentally in 0.2% of patients who undergo chest X-ray or chest CT. Although SPN has malignant potential, it cannot be treated surgically by biopsy in all patients. The first stage is to determine if patients with SPN require periodic observation and biopsy or resection. An important early step in the management of patients with SPN is to estimate the clinical pretest probability of a malignancy. In every patient with SPN, it is recommended that clinicians estimate the pretest probability of a malignancy either qualitatively using clinical judgment or quantitatively using a validated model. This study examined whether Bayesian analysis or multiple logistic regression analysis is more predictive of the probability of a malignancy in SPN. Methods: From January 2005 to December 2008, this study enrolled 63 participants with SPN at the Kangnam Sacred Hospital. The accuracy of Bayesian analysis and Bayesian analysis with a FDG-PET scan, and Multiple logistic regression analysis was compared retrospectively. The accurate probability of a malignancy in a patient was compared by taking the chest CT and pathology of SPN patients with <30 mm at CXR incidentally. Results: From those participated in study, 27 people (42.9%) were classified as having a malignancy, and 36 people were benign. The result of the malignant estimation by Bayesian analysis was 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.657 to 0.874). Using Multiple logistic regression analysis, the result was 0.684 (95% CI, 0.555 to 0.796). This suggests that Bayesian analysis provides a more accurate examination than multiple logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: Bayesian analysis is better than multiple logistic regression analysis in predicting the probability of a malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules but the difference was not statistically significant.

Opportunity Rover's image analysis: Microbialites on Mars?

  • Bianciardi, Giorgio;Rizzo, Vincenzo;Cantasano, Nicola
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.419-433
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    • 2014
  • The Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity investigated plains at Meridiani Planum, where laminated sedimentary rocks are present. The Opportunity rover's Athena morphological investigation showed microstructures organized in intertwined filaments of microspherules: a texture we have also found on samples of terrestrial (biogenic) stromatolites and other microbialites. We performed a quantitative image analysis to compare images (n=45) of microbialites with the images (n=30) photographed by the rover (corresponding, approximately, to 25,000/15,000 microstructures). Contours were extracted and morphometric indexes were obtained: geometric and algorithmic complexities, entropy, tortuosity, minimum and maximum diameters. Terrestrial and Martian textures present a multifractal aspect. Mean values and confidence intervals from the Martian images overlapped perfectly with those from the terrestrial samples. The probability of this occurring by chance is $1/2^8$, less than p<0.004. Terrestrial abiogenic pseudostromatolites showed a simple fractal structure and different morphometric values from those of the terrestrial biogenic stromatolite images or Martian images with a less ordered texture (p<0.001). Our work shows the presumptive evidence of microbialites in the Martian outcroppings: i.e., the presence of unicellular life on the ancient Mars.

A Bayesian approach for vibration-based long-term bridge monitoring to consider environmental and operational changes

  • Kim, Chul-Woo;Morita, Tomoaki;Oshima, Yoshinobu;Sugiura, Kunitomo
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.395-408
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to propose a Bayesian approach to consider changes in temperature and vehicle weight as environmental and operational factors for vibration-based long-term bridge health monitoring. The Bayesian approach consists of three steps: step 1 is to identify damage-sensitive features from coefficients of the auto-regressive model utilizing bridge accelerations; step 2 is to perform a regression analysis of the damage-sensitive features to consider environmental and operational changes by means of the Bayesian regression; and step 3 is to make a decision on the bridge health condition based on residuals, differences between the observed and predicted damage-sensitive features, utilizing 95% confidence interval and the Bayesian hypothesis testing. Feasibility of the proposed approach is examined utilizing monitoring data on an in-service bridge recorded over a one-year period. Observations through the study demonstrated that the Bayesian regression considering environmental and operational changes led to more accurate results than that without considering environmental and operational changes. The Bayesian hypothesis testing utilizing data from the healthy bridge, the damage probability of the bridge was judged as no damage.

A Distance Approach for Open Information Extraction Based on Word Vector

  • Liu, Peiqian;Wang, Xiaojie
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.2470-2491
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    • 2018
  • Web-scale open information extraction (Open IE) plays an important role in NLP tasks like acquiring common-sense knowledge, learning selectional preferences and automatic text understanding. A large number of Open IE approaches have been proposed in the last decade, and the majority of these approaches are based on supervised learning or dependency parsing. In this paper, we present a novel method for web scale open information extraction, which employs cosine distance based on Google word vector as the confidence score of the extraction. The proposed method is a purely unsupervised learning algorithm without requiring any hand-labeled training data or dependency parse features. We also present the mathematically rigorous proof for the new method with Bayes Inference and Artificial Neural Network theory. It turns out that the proposed algorithm is equivalent to Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the joint probability distribution over the elements of the candidate extraction. The proof itself also theoretically suggests a typical usage of word vector for other NLP tasks. Experiments show that the distance-based method leads to further improvements over the newly presented Open IE systems on three benchmark datasets, in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.

Countermeasure on High Vibration of Branch Pipe with Pressure Pulsation Transmitted from Main Steam Header (주증기 배관 헤더의 압력맥동에 대한 분기 배관의 고진동 대책)

  • Kim, Yeon-Whan;Bae, Yong-Chae;Lee, Young-Shin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.15 no.8 s.101
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    • pp.988-995
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    • 2005
  • Vibration has been severly increased at the branch pipe of main steam header since the commercial operation of nuclear power plant. Intense broad band disturbance flow at the discontinuous region such as elbow, valve, and header generates the acoustical pulsation which is propagated through the piping system. The pulsation becomes the source of low frequency vibration at piping system. If it coincide with natural frequency of the pipe system, excessive vibration is made. High level vibration due to the pressure pulsation related to high dynamic stress, and ultimately, to failure probability affects fatally the reliability and confidence of plant piping system. This paper discusses vibration effect for the branch pipe system due to acoustical pulsations by broad band disturbance flow at the large main steam header in 700 MW nuclear power plant. The exciting sources and response of the piping system are investigated by using on-site measurements and analytical approaches. It is identified that excessive vibration is caused by acoustical pulsations of 1.3 Hz, 4.4 Hz and 6.6 Hz transmitted from main steam balance header, which are coincided with fundamental natural frequencies of the piping structure. The energy absorbing restraints with additional stiffness and damping factor were installed to reduce excessive vibration.

Vibration Effect for Branch Pipe System due to Main Steam Header Pulsation (주증기 배관 헤더의 맥동이 분기 배관에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Yeon-Whan;Bae, Yong-Chae;Lee, Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.780-785
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    • 2005
  • Vibration has been severly increased at the branch pipe of main steam header since the commercial operation of a nuclear power plant. Intense broad band disturbance flow at the discontinuous region such as elbow, valve or heather generates the acoustical pulsation which is propagated through the piping system. The pulsation becomes the source of low frequency vibration at piping system. If it coincide with natural frequency of the pipe system, excessive vibration is made. High level vibration due to the pressure pulsation related to high dynamic stress, and ultimately, to failure probability affects fatally the reliability and confidence of plant piping system. This paper discusses vibration effect for the branch pipe system due to acoustical pulsations by broad band disturbance flow at the large main steam header in 7nn nuclear power plant. The exciting sources and response or the piping system are investigated by using on site measurements and analytical approaches. It is identified that excessive vibration is caused by acoustical pulsations of 1.3Hz, 4.4Hz and 6.6Hz transferred from main steam header, which are coincided with fundamental natural frequencies of the piping structure. The energy absorbing restraints with additional stiffness were installed to reduce excessive vibration.

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