• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.72-73
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• 2018

The accuracy of contingency estimation plays an important role for dealing with the uncertainty of the financial success of construction project. Its' estimation may be used for various purposes such as schedule control, emergency resolve, and quality expense, etc. This paper presents a contingency estimation method which is schedule control specific. The method 1) implements stochastic EVMS, 2) detects a specific timing for schedule compression, 3) identifies an optimal strategy for shortening planned schedule, 4) finds a probability density function (PDF) of project cost overrun, and 5) estimates the optimal contingency cost based on the level of confidence. The method facilitates expeditious decisions involved in project budgeting. The validity of the method is confirmed by performing test case.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.1291-1314
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• 2016

The paper presents the development of experimental fragility functions for exterior RC beam-column connections based on results obtained from extensive testing carried out in the present study. Three typical types of seismically deficient beam-column connections, which are commonly prevalent in Indian sub-continent, were considered. These specimens were tested under cyclic displacement histories with different characteristics to induce different damage states. Rehabilitation specific fragility functions for damaged specimens were developed considering drift angle as a demand parameter. Four probability distributions were fit to the data and suitability of each distribution was evaluated using standard statistical method. Specimens with different damage states were rehabilitated appropriately and rehabilitated specimens were tested under similar displacement histories. Fragility functions for rehabilitated specimens have also been developed following similar procedure. Comparison of fragility functions for both original and rehabilitated specimens for each rehabilitation method showed close agreement, which establishes the effectiveness of the adopted rehabilitation strategies and hence would provide confidence in field application.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.656-661
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• 1998

This paper presents a method of statistical analysis and sensitivity analysis of creep and shrinkage effects in PSC box girder bridges. The statistical and sensitivity analyses are performed by using the numerical simulation of Latin Hypercube sampling. For each sample, the time-dependent structural analysis is performed to produce response data, which are then statistically analyzed. The probabilistic prediction of the confidence limits on long-term effects of creep and shrinkage is then expressed. Three measures are examined to quantify the sensitivity of the outputs to each of the input variables. These are rank correlation coefficient(RCC), partial rank correlation coefficient(PRCC) and standardized rank regression coefficient(SRRC) computed on the ranks of the observations. Probability band widens with time, which indicates an increase of prediction uncertainty with time. The creep model uncertainty factor and the relative humidity appear as the most dominant factors with regard to the model output uncertainty.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.34-34
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• 2014

We investigate the constraints on the matter density ${\Omega}m$ and the cosmological constant ${\Omega}{\Lambda}$ using the gravitational lensed QSO (Quasi Stellar Object) systems from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) by analyzing the distribution of image separation. The main sample consists of 16 QSO lens systems with measured source and lens redshifts. We use a lensing probability that is simply defined by the gaussian distribution. We perform the curvature test and the constraints on the cosmological parameters as the statistical tests. The statistical tests have considered well-defined selection effects and adopt parameter of velocity dispersion function. We also applied the same analysis to Monte-Carlo generated mock gravitational lens samples to assess the accuracy and limit of our approach. As the results of these statistical tests, we find that only the excessively positively curved universe (${\Omega}m+{\Omega}{\Lambda}$ > 1) are rejected at 95% confidence level. However, if the informations of the galaxy as play a lens are measured accurately, we confirm that the gravitational lensing statistics would be the most powerful tool.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.147-153
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• 2017

In order to demonstrate a target reliability with a specified confidence level, a new two-stage Bayesian Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) plans that is known to be more effective than a corresponding single-stage one is proposed and developed by Bayesian framework with beta prior distribution for Weibull life time distribution. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed RDT plans and compared with other non-Bayesian and Bayesian plans. Comparative results show that the proposed Bayesian two-stage plans have some merits in terms of required and expected testing time and probability of acceptance.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.653-656
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• 2010

월성 1호기 격납건물에 대하여 극한내압하중에 대한 확률론적 취약도 평가를 수행하였다. 격납건물 성능의 불확실성은 가동중 검사 결과를 통해 얻어진 재료 물성치 중앙값과 텐던 긴장력 중앙값을 적용하여 고려하였다. 격납건물은 개구부를 고려하여 3차원 유한요소로 모델링하였으며, 확률론적 취약도 평가를 위하여 대규모의 비선형 유한요소 해석 모델을 적용하기에 적합한 효율적인 취약도 평가 기법을 개발하였다. 월성 1호기 격납건물에 대한 취약도 평가 결과, 벽체 중단부가 극한내압발생으로 인한 방사능물질 누출에 가장 취약한 것으로 나타났으며, 중앙값 성능은 약 55psi, 고신뢰도 저파괴 파괴확률값인 HCLPF(High Confidence Low Probability of Failure)는 약 29psi를 나타내었다.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2013

In this study, probabilistic reliability analysis was conducted for hybrid rocket performance using Monte-Carlo Simulation. For the accuracy, reliability analysis was performed with experimental data. To simplify the analysis process, the oxidizer was supplied with constant pressure, so that pressure variation with time can be eliminated. And time-space averaged regression rate model was used. The regression rate is obtained with a series of experiments. For reliability analysis of thrust, constant exponent of regression rate is assumed that has probabilistic character. So, the efficiency of characteristic velocity has also probabilistic values. As a results, probability distribution of the thrust is obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation using random samples of the input parameter and validated under the 95% confidence level.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2003.03a
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• pp.101-109
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• 2003

In evaluating the individual Plant Examination of Seismic Events, two methodologies, Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment(SPRA) and Seismic Margin Assessment(SMA) can be used. SPRA is based on the probubilistic approach and SMA is based on the deterministic approach in evaluating seismic capacities. In this paper, by evaluating the seismic capacities of the same component by these two approaches respectively, the correlation of two methodologies can be shown. In addition, the meaning of HCLPF(High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure) values that are inherent in these two methodologies is recognized by the quantitative comparison analysis.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.107-115
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• 2001

This paper considers some reliability indices, such as availability, average availability, reliability and steady state availability, of a redundant system with the function of switchover processing. We also derive the confidence limits for steady state availability of such system. The system, which is considered in this paper, consists of an active unit, a standby unit and a switchover device. In addition, the switchover processing is controlled by a control module. The effect of failure of the control module is taken into account to develop our reliability model for the redundant structure. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate our results.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2019

Statistical hypothesis tests are important for quantifying answers to questions about samples of data. The Step Process of Statistical Hypothesis Testing; state the null hypothesis, State the alternate hypothesis, State the alpha level, Find the z-score associated with alpha level, Find the test statistic using this formula, If the calculated t distribution value from the data is larger than the t distribution value of alpha level, then you are in the Rejection region and you can reject the Null Hypothesis with ($1-{\alpha}$) level of confidence.