• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.135-150
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• 2012

This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.127-131
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• 2003

Let X$_1$, X$_2$,... be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with continuous cumulative distribution function F(x). X$_j$ is an upper record value of this sequence if X$_j$ > max {X$_1$,X$_2$,...,X$_{j-1}$}. We define u(n)=min{j$\mid$j> u(n-1), X$_j$ > X$_{u(n-1)}$, n $\geq$ 2} with u(1)=1. Then F(x) = 1-x$^{\theta}$, x > 1, ${\theta}$ < -1 if and only if (${\theta}$+1)E[X$_{u(n+1)}$$\mid$X$_{u(m)}$=y] = ${\theta}E[X_{u(n)}$\mid$X_{u(m)}=y], (\theta+1)^2E[X_{u(n+2)}$\mid$X_{u(m)}=y] = \theta^2E[X_{u(n)}$\mid$X_{u(m)}=y], or (\theta+1)^3E[X_{u(n+3)}$\mid$X_{u(m)}=y] = \theta^3E[X_{u(n)}$\mid$X_{u(m)}=y], n $\geq$ M+1$.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.535-540
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• 2002

Let X$_1$, X$_2$‥‥,X$\_$n/ be n independent and identically distributed random variables with continuous cumulative distribution function F(x). Let us rearrange the X's in the increasing order X$\_$1:n/ $\leq$ X$\_$2:n/ $\leq$ ‥‥ $\leq$ X$\_$n:n/. We call X$\_$k:n/ the k-th order statistic. Then X$\_$n:n/ - X$\_$n-1:n/ and X$\_$n-1:n/ are independent if and only if f(x) = 1-e(equation omitted) with some c > 0. And X$\_$j/ is an upper record value of this sequence lf X$\_$j/ > max(X$_1$, X$_2$,¨¨ ,X$\_$j-1/). We define u(n) = min(j|j > u(n-1),X$\_$j/ > X$\_$u(n-1)/, n $\geq$ 2) with u(1) = 1. Then F(x) = 1 - e(equation omitted), x > 0 if and only if E[X$\_$u(n+3)/ - X$\_$u(n)/ | X$\_$u(m)/ = y] = 3c, or E[X$\_$u(n+4)/ - X$\_$u(n)/|X$\_$u(m)/ = y] = 4c, n m+1.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.121-134
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• 2021

Purpose - This study examines whether flight-to-liquidity (FTL) explains the dynamic liquidity risk on stock returns, and whether it has a significant influence on determinants the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study suggests a new risk factor, dynamic liquidity hedge portfolio (DLP), to reflect the dynamic impact of liquidity risk on stock returns and the Fama-MacBeth 2 stage regression analysis is employed in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, the DLP factor shows more positive and significant beta for the small or illiquidity stocks. Second, the DLP shows a different influence than SMB (size risk factor), HML (value risk factor), NMP (liquidity risk factor), FTVOL (total volatility factor) in determining the cross-section of stock returns. In addition, the DLP has a statistically significant risk premium of around 5%, which is relatively larger than other risk factors. Research implications or Originality - This study has academic value in terms of newly confirming that the DLP factor has a more significant impact on cross-sectional determination of stock returns than other risk factors by proposing a conditional liquidity factor that can explain the FTL phenomenon.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.857-861
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• 2021

The study aims to find the asymmetric effect in National Stock Exchange in which the Nifty50 is considered as proxy for NSE. A return can be stated as the change in value of a security over a certain time period. Volatility is the rate of change in security value. It is an arithmetical assessment of the dispersion of yields of security prices. Stock prices are extremely unpredictable and make the investment in equities risky. Predicting volatility and modeling are the most profuse areas to explore. The current study describes the association between two variables, namely, stock yields and volatility in equity market in India. The volatility is measured by employing asymmetric GARCH technique, i.e., the EGARCH (1,1) tool, which was used in building the study. The closing prices of Nifty on day-to-day basis were used for analysis from the period 2011 to 2020 with 2,478 observations in the study. The model arrests the lopsided volatility during the mentioned period. The outcome of asymmetric GARCH model revealed the subsistence of leverage effect in the index and confirms the impact of conditional variance as well. Furthermore, the EGARCH technique was evidenced to be apt in seizure of unsymmetrical volatility.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.34 no.6C
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• pp.588-592
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• 2009

In this paper, we propose a novel method to improve the performance of the global soft decision which is based on the second-order conditional maximum a posteriori (CMAP). Conventional global soft decision scheme has an disadvantage in that the speech absence probability adjusted by a fixed-parameter was sensitive to the various noise environments. In proposed approach using the second-order CMAP, speech absence probability value is more flexible which exploit not only the current observation but also the speech activity decisions in the previous two frames. Experimental results show that the proposed improved global soft decision method based on second-order conditional MAP yields better results compared to the conventional global soft decision technique with the performance criteria of the ITU-T P. 862 perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.29-43
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• 2012

Financial data such as stock index returns and exchange rates have the properties of heavy tail and asymmetry compared to normal distribution. When we estimate VaR using the GARCH model (with the conditional return distribution of normal) it shows the tendency of the lower estimation and clustering in the losses over the estimated VaR. In this paper, we argue that this problem can be resolved through the adaptation of the unbounded Johnson distribution as that of the condition return. We also compare this model with the GARCH with the conditional return distribution of normal and student-t. Using the losses exceed the ex-ante VaR, estimates, we check the validity of the GARCH models through the failure proportion test and the clustering test. We nd that the GARCH model with conditional return distribution of unbounded Johnson provides an appropriate estimation of the VaR and does not occur the clustering of violations.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.1013-1024
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• 2015

We compare the performance of two representative estimation methods for the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH model. The first method is the pairwise estimation which exploits partial information from the paired series, irrespective to the time series dimension. The second is the multi-dimensional estimation that uses full information of the time series. As a simulation for the comparison, we generate a multivariate time series similar to those observed in real markets and construct a DCC GARCH model. As an empirical example, we constitute various portfolios using real KOSPI 200 sector indices and estimate volatility and VaR of the portfolios. Through the estimated dynamic correlations from the simulation and the estimated volatility and value at risk (VaR) of the portfolios, we evaluate the performance of the estimations. We observe that the multi-dimensional estimation tends to be superior to pairwise estimation; in addition, relatively-uncorrelated series can improve the performance of the multi-dimensional estimation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.29-36
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• 2009

Simulation is performed to analyze the characteristics of turbulent spray combustion in a diesel engine condition. An extended Conditional Moment Closure (CMC) model is employed to resolve coupling between chemistry and turbulence. Relevant time and length scales and dimensionless numbers are estimated at the tip and the mid spray region during spray development and combustion. The liquid volume fractions are small enough to support validity of droplets assumed as point sources in two-phase flow. The mean scalar dissipation rates (SDR) are lower than the extinction limit to show flame stability throughout the combustion period. The Kolmogorov scales remain relatively constant, while the integral scales increase with decay of turbulence. The chemical time scale decreases abruptly to a small value as ignition occurs with subsequent heat release. The Da and Ka show opposite trends due to variation in the chemical time scale. More work is in progress to identify the spray combustion regimes.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.338-343
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• 2015

We suggest a method to configure feature functions of continuous conditional random field (C-CRF). Regression tree and similarity analysis are introduced to construct the first and second feature functions of C-CRF, respectively. Rules from the regression tree are transformed to logic functions. If a logic in the set of rules is true for a data then it returns the corresponding value of leaf node and zero, otherwise. We build an Euclidean similarity matrix to define neighborhood, which constitute the second feature function. Using two feature functions, we make a C-CRF model and an illustrate example is provided.