• Title/Summary/Keyword: competing risk

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Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19 (COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용)

  • Ki, Han Jeong;Kim, Jieun;Kim, Sohee;Park, Juwon;Lee, Joohaeng;Kim, Yang-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.777-789
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    • 2020
  • COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.

The Factors Affecting the Shelter Exit of Homeless Women (여성 노숙인의 쉼터 퇴소에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Shin, Won-Woo;Kim, Yu-Kyung;Kim, Kyoung-Huy
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.5-32
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is analyze the pattern and factors affecting the shelter exit and the patterns of homeless women in Korea. For this study, survey data were collected from 139 sheltered homeless women in Seoul in May of 2007. And respondent's exit time and exit pattern from the shelter were investigated through administration data of shelter in December of 2008. Life table analysis, Cox-proportional hazard analysis and competing risk survival analysis were employed in order to analyze data. The major findings were as follows. First, life table analysis shows that the exit ratio of homeless women started to fall sharply in 24 months from entry into shelter. Second, subjective health status, ratio of the homeless in social network and shelter entry with children affected the likelihood of shelter exit of homeless women. Third, age, subjective health status, depression and shelter entry with children affected the likelihood of positive exit. And ratio of the homeless in social network affected the likelihood of negative exit. Based on these findings, this study implied the introduction of case management service concerning individual shelter exit plan and policy for residential stability of homeless women.

Factors affecting the rehabilitation center exit and reentry among homeless persons with mental illness. (정신장애노숙인의 재활시설 퇴소 및 재입소 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Min, So-Young;Lee, Byung-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.219-242
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    • 2011
  • This study examined the factors associated with exit from and reentry into the rehabilitation center among homeless persons with mental illness. Shelter use of a total of 203 study population was monitored between 2004 and 2008. Cox's proportional hazard model was employed to analyze the factors influencing the rate of the first exit from and the first reentry into the rehabilitation center. Also, competing risk analysis was conducted to examine the factors differently associated with the type of the first exit from the rehabilitation center: a positive exit and a negative exit. This study found that homeless persons with mental illness were less likely to experience the negative exit while their resident registration status not being abolished on the first entry into the rehabilitation center, having more frequent hospitalizations during the rehabilitation center stay, being connected to the family members, having more participations into the basic rehabilitation, mental rehabilitation, and vocational rehabilitation programs during the rehabilitation center stay. Age, the number of hospitalization and of the participations into the mental rehabilitation programs during the rehabilitation center stay were associated with the rate of the first reentry into the rehabilitation center.

Prediction of Decompensation and Death in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Using Deep Learning Analysis of Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI

  • Subin Heo;Seung Soo Lee;So Yeon Kim;Young-Suk Lim;Hyo Jung Park;Jee Seok Yoon;Heung-Il Suk;Yu Sub Sung;Bumwoo Park;Ji Sung Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.1269-1280
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    • 2022
  • Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of quantitative indices obtained from deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatobiliary phase (HBP) MRI and their longitudinal changes in predicting decompensation and death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Materials and Methods: We included patients who underwent baseline and 1-year follow-up MRI from a prospective cohort that underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance between November 2011 and August 2012 at a tertiary medical center. Baseline liver condition was categorized as non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD. The liver-to-spleen signal intensity ratio (LS-SIR) and liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LS-VR) were automatically measured on the HBP images using a deep learning algorithm, and their percentage changes at the 1-year follow-up (ΔLS-SIR and ΔLS-VR) were calculated. The associations of the MRI indices with hepatic decompensation and a composite endpoint of liver-related death or transplantation were evaluated using a competing risk analysis with multivariable Fine and Gray regression models, including baseline parameters alone and both baseline and follow-up parameters. Results: Our study included 280 patients (153 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 57 ± 7.95 years) with non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD in 32, 186, and 62 patients, respectively. Patients were followed for 11-117 months (median, 104 months). In patients with compensated ACLD, baseline LS-SIR (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.81; p = 0.034) and LS-VR (sHR, 0.71; p = 0.01) were independently associated with hepatic decompensation. The ΔLS-VR (sHR, 0.54; p = 0.002) was predictive of hepatic decompensation after adjusting for baseline variables. ΔLS-VR was an independent predictor of liver-related death or transplantation in patients with compensated ACLD (sHR, 0.46; p = 0.026) and decompensated ACLD (sHR, 0.61; p = 0.023). Conclusion: MRI indices automatically derived from the deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced HBP MRI can be used as prognostic markers in patients with ACLD.

Safety of Various Types of Cheese manufactured from Unpasteurized Raw Milk: A Review (비살균 원유로 만든 다양한 치즈의 안전성에 관한 연구: 총설)

  • Kim, Hong-Seok;Chon, Jung-Whan;Lim, Jong-Soo;Kim, Hyun-Sook;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Song, Kwang-Young;Kim, Soo-Ki;Seo, Kun-Ho
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2015
  • Before the advent of pasteurization and other microbiological controls in the dairy industry, milk product-borne diseases such as scarlet fever, typhoid fever, septic sore throat, and tuberculosis were globally widespread. Pasteurization was invented by Louis Pasteur, and it has been considered as one of the most effective ways to control milk product-borne diseases since the 20th century. Nevertheless, till date, various types of cheese in the EU, the USA, and other countries are made from unpasteurized milk as artisan cheese, following the specific food regulations of each nation. Furthermore, after the effectiveness of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between Korea and many nations, the import of various types of cheese made in different conditions and influenced by acidity, preservatives, temperature, competing flora, water activity, and salt concentration increased yearly. Hence, the objective of this review was to describe (1) the 60-day aging rule of cheese, (2) characteristics of the outbreaks linked to cheese manufactured from unpasteurized milk since 1998 to 2011 in USA, and (3) serious health risks from unpasteurized milk, to ensure food protection and safety and to use this basic information for risk assessment.

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Distributional Characteristics, Population Structures and Fruition Dynamics of Korean Endemic plant, Prunus choreiana H. T. Im (한국특산 복사앵도나무(Prunus choreiana H. T. Im)의 분포특성, 개체군구조 및 결실동태)

  • Kim, Young-Chul;Chae, Hyun-Hee;Son, Sung-Won
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.177-201
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    • 2022
  • Following the adoption of the global plant conservation strategies at the Conference of the Parties for Biodiversity Conservation, diligent actions to achieve each targets are actively carried out. In particular, the need for ecological conservation research to achieve targets 2 and 7 of GSPC-2020 has increased. The priority taxa to accomplish the objectives of GSPC-2020 are rare and endemic plants. In particular, endemic plants with limited distribution in specific regions are evaluated to face a high risk of extinction. To address the necessity to preserve endemic plants, we investigated the distribution of Prunus choreiana H. T. Im, a Korean endemic plant. After that, we examined the vegetational environment of the habitat of P. choreiana and evaluated its population structure. The productivity of its fruits and the effects of pollinators on fruit production were evaluated as well. The fruiting ratio was calculated based on the number of flowers produced. Lastly, we observed the annual growth characteristics of P. choreiana. The habitats of P. choreiana did not show a specific type of vegetation. All of them were located in a limestone area of Gangwon-do in the central Korean Peninsula and occupied a site where the coverage of the tree layer and the sub-tree layer was not high or did not exist. The population structure of P. choreiana contained a high proportion of mature plants capable of producing fruits and a low proportion of seedlings and Juvenile plants. We found that the production of fruits required pollinators and was affected by the performance of each plant. Although P. choreiana produces many flowers, only a maximum of 20% and only 2-6% on average bear fruits. These flowering characteristics may be due to pollinators' low abundance and activity during the flowering season (between mid-March and early April), suggesting that many flowers are needed to attract more pollinators. We rarely observed the re-establishment of seedlings in the population of P. choreiana. Despite that, we predict the population to persist owing to its long lifespan and periodic production of numerous fruits. However, if the tree layer and sub-tree layer in competing status with P. choreiana increase their crown density, they are expected to inhibit the growth of P. choreiana and affect the risk of its extinction. Therefore, the current changes in the vegetational environment of the habitats are expected to decrease the number and extent of P. choreiana in the long term. The results of this study may serve as primary and important data necessary for the achievement of GSPC-2020 objectives.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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