• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.181-200
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• 2003

Comovement of international stock market prices has been lately a major controversy in the global stock market. This paper explores whether the common trend has really existed among the US, Japan and Korea's stock markets using the econometric techniques such as VAR, VECM as applied. Pair of indices from the exchange market and the over-the-counter market in each country has been tested, and the exchange market only has been turned out that the common trend existed. The dynamic analyses using the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and the forecast error decomposition have followed to show that the US stock market has played some important role in the Korea and Japan's market in the exchange as well as in the OTC market. The results of the paper imply that the more careful investigation with respect to the co-integration may be necessary in the global market integration studies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.75-88
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• 2009

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is regarded as an essential information to understand regional economy. However, GRDP is hardly used for establishment of regional economic plan and related statistical research due to its late and yearly publication. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate quarterly GRDP to grasp the current regional economy faster In this study, considering the comovement between GDP and GRDP for the same industry, reference series are made. Quarterly GRDP is estimated the following two steps; First, preliminary quarterly GRDP is estimated using Chow-Lin's method based on the reference series to eliminate temporal discrepancies. Second, preliminary quarterly GRDP is adjusted using Denton's multivariate method to eliminate contemporaneous discrepancies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2011

This study investigates the dynamic structure of interdependence on the domestic and related major stock markets by employing a statistical framework. Finance theory predicts potential gains by international portfolio diversification if returns from investment in different national stock markets are not perfectly correlated or not cointegrated. The benefit of international diversification is limited when national stock markets are cointegrated because of the limited amount of independent variation by the presence of common factors. The statistical tests suggest that international diversification appears to be favorable after the period of the comovement of the stock prices caused by 1997 Asian financial crisis. The result reflects the increase in overseas investment and purchase of overseas funds after the early 2000's.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.131-152
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• 2001

In this Era of Information and Localization, Gross Regional Domestic Product(GRDP) is recognized as indispensable informatin to establish regional economic policy. Especially, to raise Chungbuk provinece´s economical independence and to establish effectual regional economic development plans. Chungbuk province needs quarterly estimated GRDP for developing regional economic forecasting system. In this study, utilizing small area estimation is proposed to estimate the quarterly Chungbuk-GRDP provided by the Bureau of Statistics and nation´s GDP provid by the Bank of Korea exists. Moreover, from the nation´s quarterly GDP in each section of economical activity, this study has presumed the quarterly comovement, applied it to subdivide Chungbuk annual GRDP quarterly, and estimated quarterly Chungbuk-GRDP.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.201-210
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• 2008

The government employment statistics show the close comovement of the whole domestic unemployment rate with the youth unemployment rate for the past 10 years, implying the dominant influence of the unemployment of the youth age. This study investigates the structure of the short-run variation and the process of the long-run adjustment in the unemployment rates of the youth and middle ages by formulating the dynamic equation system. The estimation result consistently reflects the vulnerability of the youth class in the aggravation of the employment condition. The effect of exogenous changes is found to be persistent in the unemployment rates of both ages, which appear to have similar structures of the long-run time path. However, the youth unemployment rate turns out to have a relatively long adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.207-218
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• 2011

This paper investigates the determinants of trade on Southeast Asia via Korean ports using monthly data. I employ Johansen cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. Johansen(1988) and Johansen and Juselius(1990) propose two statistics for testing the number of cointegrating vectors: the trace and maximum eigenvalue statistics. The null hypothesis that there is no cointegrating vector should be rejected at the 5% level. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between trade and variables. This also suggests that these variables have a meaningful equilibrium relationship between trade and variables would not move too far away from each other, displaying a comovement phenomenon for the export and import. Apparently, the error correction term reflects market information in a state of disequilibrium that is bound to be corrected when moving toward the long-run level.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.559-569
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• 2016

A long-run relationship of stock, monetary, realty markets, and business conditions has been suggested to exist due to internal and external shocks. This study investigates whether such a relationship really exists and then performs statistical tests to discern features of the long-run adjustment processes from short-run discrepancies because it is difficult to find studies that examine the market relationship. The comovement relationship of the whole market does not appear to hold for the entire study period; however, it is found to exist for the period before the financial crisis. Estimated error correction models show consistently declining equilibrium errors each period that suggests a recovering process of the long-run equilibrium from short-run secessions.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.3-20
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• 2017

Traditional co-integration analysis method is known to be difficult to clearly determine the relationship between the cointegrated variables. This study utilizes a fractional cointegation method and a causal analysis of time and frequency domain among the exchange rates of Korea, China and Japan. The results show that even though traditional cointegration methods did not clarify the existence of cointegration, exchange rates were fractionally cointegrated. Causal analysis of time domain and frequency domain provided somewhat different results, but the yen/dollar was useful for forecasting won/dollar and yuan/dollar. Proper use of causal analysis of frequency domain and fractional cointegration emthods may provide useful information that can not be explained from the traditional method.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.117-129
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• 2015

As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, a large volume of information is posted on the Internet with exponential growth every day. Accordingly, it is not unusual that investors in stock markets gather and compile firm-specific or market-wide information through online searches. Importantly, it becomes easier for investors to acquire value-relevant information for their investment decision with the help of powerful search tools on the Internet. Our study examines whether or not the Internet helps investors assess a firm's value better by using firm-level data over long periods spanning from January 2004 to December 2013. To this end, we construct weekly-based search volume for information technology (IT) services firms on the Internet. We limit our focus to IT firms since they are often equipped with intangible assets and relatively less recognized to the public which makes them hard-to measure. To obtain the information on those firms, investors are more likely to consult the Internet and use the information to appreciate the firms more accurately and eventually improve their investment decisions. Prior studies have shown that changes in search volumes can reflect the various aspects of the complex human behaviors and forecast near-term values of economic indicators, including automobile sales, unemployment claims, and etc. Moreover, search volume of firm names or stock ticker symbols has been used as a direct proxy of individual investors' attention in financial markets since, different from indirect measures such as turnover and extreme returns, they can reveal and quantify the interest of investors in an objective way. Following this line of research, this study aims to gauge whether the information retrieved from the Internet is value relevant in assessing a firm. We also use search volume for analysis but, distinguished from prior studies, explore its impact on return comovements with market returns. Given that a firm's returns tend to comove with market returns excessively when investors are less informed about the firm, we empirically test the value of information by examining the association between Internet searches and the extent to which a firm's returns comove. Our results show that Internet searches are negatively associated with return comovements as expected. When sample is split by the size of firms, the impact of Internet searches on return comovements is shown to be greater for large firms than small ones. Interestingly, we find a greater impact of Internet searches on return comovements for years from 2009 to 2013 than earlier years possibly due to more aggressive and informative exploit of Internet searches in obtaining financial information. We also complement our analyses by examining the association between return volatility and Internet search volumes. If Internet searches capture investors' attention associated with a change in firm-specific fundamentals such as new product releases, stock splits and so on, a firm's return volatility is likely to increase while search results can provide value-relevant information to investors. Our results suggest that in general, an increase in the volume of Internet searches is not positively associated with return volatility. However, we find a positive association between Internet searches and return volatility when the sample is limited to larger firms. A stronger result from larger firms implies that investors still pay less attention to the information obtained from Internet searches for small firms while the information is value relevant in assessing stock values. However, we do find any systematic differences in the magnitude of Internet searches impact on return volatility by time periods. Taken together, our results shed new light on the value of information searched from the Internet in assessing stock values. Given the informational role of the Internet in stock markets, we believe the results would guide investors to exploit Internet search tools to be better informed, as a result improving their investment decisions.