• Title/Summary/Keyword: bayesian modeling

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Nonignorable Nonresponse Imputation and Rotation Group Bias Estimation on the Rotation Sample Survey (무시할 수 없는 무응답을 가지고 있는 교체표본조사에서의 무응답 대체와 교체그룹 편향 추정)

  • Choi, Bo-Seung;Kim, Dae-Young;Kim, Kee-Whan;Park, You-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.361-375
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    • 2008
  • We propose proper methods to impute the item nonresponse in 4-8-4 rotation sample survey. We consider nonignorable nonresponse mechanism that can happen when survey deals with sensitive question (e.g. income, labor force). We utilize modeling imputation method based on Bayesian approach to avoid a boundary solution problem. We also estimate a interview time bias using imputed data and calculate cell expectation and marginal probability on fixed time after removing estimated bias. We compare the mean squared errors and bias between maximum likelihood method and Bayesian methods using simulation studies.

Control of Time-varying and Nonstationary Stochastic Systems using a Neural Network Controller and Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling (신경회로망 제어기와 동적 베이시안 네트워크를 이용한 시변 및 비정치 확률시스템의 제어)

  • Cho, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Jin-Woo;Lee, Young-Jin;Lee, Kwon-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.930-938
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    • 2007
  • Captions which appear in images include information that relates to the images. In order to obtain the information carried by captions, the methods for text extraction from images have been developed. However, most existing methods can be applied to captions with fixed height of stroke's width. We propose a method which can be applied to various caption size. Our method is based on connected components. And then the edge pixels are detected and grouped into connected components. We analyze the properties of connected components and build a neural network which discriminates connected components which include captions from ones which do not. Experimental data is collected from broadcast programs such as news, documentaries, and show programs which include various height caption. Experimental result is evaluated by two criteria : recall and precision. Recall is the ratio of the identified captions in all the captions in images and the precision is the ratio of the captions in the objects identified as captions. The experiment shows that the proposed method can efficiently extract captions various in size.

A Study on the Volatility Analysis of Economic Indicators Using Extended Bayesian Information Criteria (확장된 베이지안 정보기준을 이용한 경기지표의 변동성 분석 연구)

  • Jeon, Jin-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2017
  • The global economy, including Korea, has continuously searched for various market-friendly policies and new economic systems in pursuit of the forth industrial revolution. As a result, economic markets have grown, and factors affecting markets have diversified. Therefore, as for many company's decision makers, it has become an important issue to analyze and forecast markets accurately and effectively for rapid and appropriate decision making. In this study, we aim to improve the accuracy and validity of forecast models by applying extended information criteria in existing restricted information criteria to determine optimized modeling for the accurate analysis and prediction of complex market environments. In order to verify the practical use of the extended information criteria adopted in this study, we compare this study employing KOSPI data with previous studies. Experimental results show that applying extended information criteria is more accurate than using the existing information criteria.

Associations between Poorer Mental Health with Work-Related Effort, Reward, and Overcommitment among a Sample of Formal US Solid Waste Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic

  • Abas Shkembi;Aurora B. Le;Richard L. Neitzel
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2023
  • Background: Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) and overcommitment at work have been associated poorer mental health. However, nonlinear and nonadditive effects have not been investigated previously. Methods: The association between effort, reward, and overcommitment with odds of poorer mental health was examined among a sample of 68 formal United States waste workers (87% male). Traditional, logistic regression and Bayesian Kernel machine regression (BKMR) modeling was conducted. Models controlled for age, education level, race, gender, union status, and physical health status. Results: The traditional, logistic regression found only overcommitment was significantly associated with poorer mental health (IQR increase: OR = 6.7; 95% CI: 1.7 to 25.5) when controlling for effort and reward (or ERI alone). Results from the BKMR showed that a simultaneous IQR increase in higher effort, lower reward, and higher overcommitment was associated with 6.6 (95% CI: 1.7 to 33.4) times significantly higher odds of poorer mental health. An IQR increase in overcommitment was associated with 5.6 (95% CI: 1.6 to 24.9) times significantly higher odds of poorer mental health when controlling for effort and reward. Higher effort and lower reward at work may not always be associated with poorer mental health but rather they may have an inverse, U-shaped relationship with mental health. No interaction between effort, reward, or overcommitment was observed. Conclusion: When taking into the consideration the relationship between effort, reward, and overcommitment, overcommitment may be most indicative of poorer mental health. Organizations should assess their workers' perceptions of overcommitment to target potential areas of improvement to enhance mental health outcomes.

Behavioral motivation-based Action Selection Mechanism with Bayesian Affordance Models (베이지안 행동유발성 모델을 이용한 행동동기 기반 행동 선택 메커니즘)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyoung;Suh, Il-Hong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2009
  • A robot must be able to generate various skills to achieve given tasks intelligently and reasonably. The robot must first learn affordances to generate the skills. An affordance is defined as qualities of objects or environments that induce actions. Affordances can be usefully used to generate skills. Most tasks require sequential and goal-oriented behaviors. However, it is usually difficult to accomplish such tasks with affordances alone. To accomplish such tasks, a skill is constructed with an affordance and a soft behavioral motivation switch for reflecting goal-oriented elements. A skill calculates a behavioral motivation as a combination of both presently perceived information and goal-oriented elements. Here, a behavioral motivation is the internal condition that activates a goal-oriented behavior. In addition, a robot must be able to execute sequential behaviors. We construct skill networks by using generated skills that make action selection feasible to accomplish a task. A robot can select sequential and a goal-oriented behaviors using the skill network. For this, we will first propose a method for modeling and learning Bayesian networks that are used to generate affordances. To select sequential and goal-oriented behaviors, we construct skills using affordances and soft behavioral motivation switches. We also propose a method to generate the skill networks using the skills to execute given tasks. Finally, we will propose action-selection-mechanism to select sequential and goal-oriented behaviors using the skill network. To demonstrate the validity of our proposed methods, "Searching-for-a-target-object", "Approaching-a-target-object", "Sniffing-a-target-object", and "Kicking-a-target-object" affordances have been learned with GENIBO (pet robot) based on the human teaching method. Some experiments have also been performed with GENIBO using the skills and the skill networks.

Estimation of design floods for ungauged watersheds using a scaling-based regionalization approach (스케일링 기법 기반의 지역화를 통한 미계측 유역의 설계 홍수량 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Jin-Young;Choi, Hong-Geun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.769-782
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    • 2018
  • Estimation of design floods is typically required for hydrologic design purpose. Design floods are routinely estimated for water resources planning, safety and risk of the existing water-related structures. However, the hydrologic data, especially streamflow data for the design purposes in South Korea are still very limited, and additionally the length of streamflow data is relatively short compared to the rainfall data. Therefore, this study collected a large number design flood data and watershed characteristics (e.g. area, slope and altitude) from the national river database. We further explored to formulate a scaling approach for the estimation of design flood, which is a function of the watershed characteristics. Then, this study adopted a Hierarchical Bayesian model for evaluating both parameters and their uncertainties in the regionalization approach, which models the hydrologic response of ungauged basins using regression relationships between watershed structure and model. The proposed modeling framework was validated through ungauged watersheds. The proposed approach have better performance in terms of correlation coefficient than the existing approach which is solely based on area as a predictor. Moreover, the proposed approach can provide uncertainty associated with the model parameters to better characterize design floods at ungauged watersheds.

Modeling the Trend of Apartment Market Price in Seoul (서울시 아파트 가격 추세의 모형화)

  • Hwang, Eun-Yeon;Kwon, Yong-Chan;Jang, Dong-Ik;Lee, Jae-Yong;Oh, Hee-Seok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.173-191
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    • 2008
  • The goal of this paper is analyzing and modeling the trend of apartment market price in Seoul using the dynamic linear model(DLM). We use the market price per pyeong of 30-pyeong-apartment provided by "KB apartment market price database" of Kookmin bank. The data is collected from June $24^{th}$, 2003 to August $28^{th}$, 2006. The inspection of the data reveals that the trend of apartment market price in Seoul can be divided into two groups and we assume that the price is expressed by the common trend of divided groups. We try to estimate the price of apartment by DLM using the Bayesian method.

Survival Analysis of Gastric Cancer Patients with Incomplete Data

  • Moghimbeigi, Abbas;Tapak, Lily;Roshanaei, Ghodaratolla;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Survival analysis of gastric cancer patients requires knowledge about factors that affect survival time. This paper attempted to analyze the survival of patients with incomplete registered data by using imputation methods. Materials and Methods: Three missing data imputation methods, including regression, expectation maximization algorithm, and multiple imputation (MI) using Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods, were applied to the data of cancer patients referred to the cancer institute at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran in 2003 to 2008. The data included demographic variables, survival times, and censored variable of 471 patients with gastric cancer. After using imputation methods to account for missing covariate data, the data were analyzed using a Cox regression model and the results were compared. Results: The mean patient survival time after diagnosis was $49.1{\pm}4.4$ months. In the complete case analysis, which used information from 100 of the 471 patients, very wide and uninformative confidence intervals were obtained for the chemotherapy and surgery hazard ratios (HRs). However, after imputation, the maximum confidence interval widths for the chemotherapy and surgery HRs were 8.470 and 0.806, respectively. The minimum width corresponded with MI. Furthermore, the minimum Bayesian and Akaike information criteria values correlated with MI (-821.236 and -827.866, respectively). Conclusions: Missing value imputation increased the estimate precision and accuracy. In addition, MI yielded better results when compared with the expectation maximization algorithm and regression simple imputation methods.

An Extended Generative Feature Learning Algorithm for Image Recognition

  • Wang, Bin;Li, Chuanjiang;Zhang, Qian;Huang, Jifeng
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.3984-4005
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    • 2017
  • Image recognition has become an increasingly important topic for its wide application. It is highly challenging when facing to large-scale database with large variance. The recognition systems rely on a key component, i.e. the low-level feature or the learned mid-level feature. The recognition performance can be potentially improved if the data distribution information is exploited using a more sophisticated way, which usually a function over hidden variable, model parameter and observed data. These methods are called generative score space. In this paper, we propose a discriminative extension for the existing generative score space methods, which exploits class label when deriving score functions for image recognition task. Specifically, we first extend the regular generative models to class conditional models over both observed variable and class label. Then, we derive the mid-level feature mapping from the extended models. At last, the derived feature mapping is embedded into a discriminative classifier for image recognition. The advantages of our proposed approach are two folds. First, the resulted methods take simple and intuitive forms which are weighted versions of existing methods, benefitting from the Bayesian inference of class label. Second, the probabilistic generative modeling allows us to exploit hidden information and is well adapt to data distribution. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we cooperate our discriminative extension with three generative models for image recognition task. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Data-Driven Modeling of Freshwater Aquatic Systems: Status and Prospects (자료기반 물환경 모델의 현황 및 발전 방향)

  • Cha, YoonKyung;Shin, Jihoon;Kim, YoungWoo
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.611-620
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    • 2020
  • Although process-based models have been a preferred approach for modeling freshwater aquatic systems over extended time intervals, the increasing utility of data-driven models in a big data environment has made the data-driven models increasingly popular in recent decades. In this study, international peer-reviewed journals for the relevant fields were searched in the Web of Science Core Collection, and an extensive literature review, which included total 2,984 articles published during the last two decades (2000-2020), was performed. The review results indicated that the rate of increase in the number of published studies using data-driven models exceeded those using process-based models since 2010. The increase in the use of data-driven models was partly attributable to the increasing availability of data from new data sources, e.g., remotely sensed hyperspectral or multispectral data. Consistently throughout the past two decades, South Korea has been one of the top ten countries in which the greatest number of studies using the data-driven models were published. Among the major data-driven approaches, i.e., artificial neural network, decision tree, and Bayesian model, were illustrated with case studies. Based on the review, this study aimed to inform the current state of knowledge regarding the biogeochemical water quality and ecological models using data-driven approaches, and provide the remaining challenges and future prospects.