• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.115-125
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• 2011

사망률 예측모형과 생명표 작성방법에 기반을 둔 예측평균수명 작성은 미래의 사망수준을 평가하는 효과적인 방법이 된다. 2006년 통계청에서 장래인구추계 작성 시 예측평균수명을 작성하였으나, 2006년 이후 현재까지 실제평균수명과 적지 않은 차이를 보이고 있어 평균수명의 증가속도를 반영하지 못하고 있다. 이의 원인으로는 전망치에 대한판단, 사망률 예측모형의 선택과 사용 등이 이유가 될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 사망률 예측모형의 선택관점에서 이 문제를 살펴보고자 한다. 2011년 장래인구추계 작성을 앞둔 상황에서 오류의 반복을 피하기 위해서는 사망률 예측모형에 대한 특성 및 적용가능성에 대한 충분한 검토가 이루어진 후 적절한 모형을 선택해야 할 것이다. 사망률 예측모형은 주로 사용되고 있는 LC(Lee와 Carter) 모형과 이의 개선모형들, 사망확률 확장모형인 HP8(Heligman과 Pollard 8 parameters) 모형 등 모두 5개의 모형을 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과를 바탕으로 5개의 모형별로 2030까지의 남녀별 예측평균수명을 작성하여 제시하였고, 이를 통계청에서 제공하는 예측평균수명과 비교하였다. 5개의 모형에 의해 작성된 2030년까지의 새로운 예측평균수명은 통계청의 결과보다 높게 나타나 실제평균수명의 변화를 상대적으로 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.93-111
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• 2009

이 연구는 Wolfbein-Wool 노동생명표를 변형한 결혼생명표를 이용하여 교육상태에 따른 한국인의 평균유배우기대여명 차이를 알아보고자 하였다. 2005년 인구총주택조사와 사망원인통계자료를 사용하였고 교육수준은 초등학교이하, 중학교, 고등학교, 대학교이상 총 4개 집단으로 구분하였다. 유배우율, 이혼율, 사별률과 사망률을 기초자료로 사용하였다. 이 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 유배우기대여명은 교육수준이 높은 집단이 높게 나타났다. 연령이 높아지면서 중학교와 고등학교 교육수준을 가진 사람의 격차가 크지 않았고 남자의 경우 더 높게 나타나기도 하였다. 2. 같은 교육수준을 가진 남자가 여자보다 유배우기대여명이 더 길었다. 3. 30세에 결혼한 남자는 대부분의 삶을 배우자와 살지만 모든 교육수준에서 여자는 홀로 10년 이상 사는 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 유배우기대여명은 교육수준에 따라 연령별, 성별 차이가 있었다. 결과에 영향을 주는 변수인 유배우율은 교육수준이 높은 집단일수록 높았고, 이혼율은 교육수준이 높은 집단이 낮은 연령에서는 낮았지만 연령이 높아지면서 제일 높았다. 한편 사별률은 배우자의 사망을 뜻하는데 같은 교육수준을 가진 사람들끼리 결혼하는 것으로 나타나 교육수준별 사망 형태를 가졌다.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.61-68
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• 2022

In this paper, the change history of various types of MV (Medium Voltage) cables was investigated. In addition, the statistical life expectancy of each type was calculated by using the operation data and the failure data. For cut-off year, 10 years was applied, and realistically applicable statistical life expectancy was calculated by correcting the cause of failure entered by mistake. The life expectancy of FR-CNCO-W was calculated as 51.2 years, CNCV-W 38.1 years, and CNCV 31.4 years and the overall average is 33.8 years. Currently, the life expectancy of TR CNCV-W is 29.4 years, but it is estimated that the lifespan will be extended if failure data is accumulated. As a result, it is expected that life expectancy results can be applied to Asset Management System (AMS) in the future.

• 한국인구학
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.22-32
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• 1988

This study was conducted in order to compare the sequential changes of marital partnership and average marital life expectancy in Korea using Korean marriage life table for 1970, 1980, and 1985. The marriage life table was constructed by the Wolfbein-Wool method of constructing a working life table. Data used in this study was obtained from the Population Census Reports of Korea and the Korean Abridged life Tables. Some of the finding may be summarized as follows : 1. The marital partnership findings showed that males in the 40-44 age group in 1970 and in 1980 and those in the 45-49 bracket in 1985 have the highest rates of any other age interval, the percentages were 97.5% 97.3% and 96.9% respectively. The highest marital partnership rates for females were those aged 30-34 in 1970 and in 1980 and 35-39 in 1985:these were 94.6% 94.3% and 93.30% respectively. 2. The marital rate of the youngest age group has decreased due to the increasing amount of people marrying at older ages. On the other hand, the marital rates of the elderly has increased slightly due to the decreasing mortality rate. 3. The enterance rate of marriage at the 15-19 female age group ad the 20-24 male age group has decreased. 4. The secession rate of marriage has gradually decreased due to the decrease in the mortality rate. The main reason of secession for males is his own death. For females, the main reasons are divorce and the death of her spouse. 5. Korean average marital life expectancy has improved in general. In 1985 the average marital life expectancy for males was higher by 4-5 years than for females. The average difference of marital expectancy and life expectancy is about 1.4 - 1.5 years for males and about 11-14 years at the age groups below 60 years for females.

• 한국인구학
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.45-55
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• 1989

In recent years the life expectancy of the Korean people has been increasing appreciably because of the improvement in living conditions and public health facilities as well. However, there exist considerable constraints in the measurement of Korea's mortality rate. In elaboration, there are quite a few persons who do not submit birth and death reports, thereby lowering the reliability of statistical data. The 1978-1979 life table of the Korean people is still considered the latest one. Nevertheless, a decade has passed since its publication, and the need for a better life table reflecting realities is inc-reasingly growing. Capitalizing on the annual report of demographic statistics and demographic sample survey data m 1988, I have worked out the 1986 tentative life table of the Korean people and found out the following : 1. The male life expectancy in the 1978-1979 life table of the Korean people is 62.7 years old, and that of the female sex is 69.1 years old whereas the average life expectancy of the male sex in the 1986 life table stands at 66.3 years old, and that of the female sex is 74.5 years old. The average life expectancy is up by 3.5 years old for the male sex and also, up 5.4 years old for the female sex, res-pe ctively. 2. A gap between the male and female life expectancies in the 1978-1979 life table was 6.4 years old, while that of the 1986 life table was 8.2 years old. It means the female life expectancy has increased substantially. 3. The infant mortality rate has decreased, compared with the 1978-1979 level, yet it is still above those of Japan and Taiwan. 4. The mortality rate of the middle - aged men in the forties remains high, as was the case in the 1978-1979 period.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제32권5D호
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• pp.453-461
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• 2012

장비나 설비의 경제성 분석을 위해 실시되는 수명분석의 목적은 현 자산의 미래 폐기 지표를 예측하여, 예측자료에 의거한 여러 경영전략을 수립하여 활용하는 데 있다. 본 연구에서는 1) 생존곡선을 사용하여 건설장비의 평균수명, 기대수명, 예측수명을 구하는 방법과 생존곡선에 의한 수명결정방법을 분석하여 제시하였고 2) 수익과 비용에 의한 수명결정 모델을 제안하고 이를 검증해 보았다. 연구 결과, 동일한 장비라고 하더라도 비용, 수익, 초기투자비에 따라 경제수명이 다르게 나타날 수 있음을 알게 되었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 건설장비 수명결정 모델은, 장비의 개별적 경영상황을 반영할 수 있는 수명 결정 모델로서, 회사경영합리화를 위해 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.3-25
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• 1990

Life table of Korean population for years 1983 1985 1987 and 1989 were constructed byt the National Bureau of Statics. The ago specific death rates were calculated froom the death registral ion for numerators and the estimated population by age and sex for denominators. In the course of constructing life tables, we have maole some adjustments for deficiencies in regist rat ion olata as follows. First, the non-registered portion oof infant deaths especially for neo-natal deaths was estirnateol and added too the original data. The main reason is that deaths occorring in the neo-natal period and prior to the registrat ion of birth leave little incentive for the registration of either the birth or the death. Second. t he do~hayed p(ortioon of deaths registering after one year of occurrence was estimated and added too the original data. Third t the ptortioon haying in, occuracies in ,~oge reporting was also estimated. Fourth the moving average methood was finally employed in an effort too remove the random error. The major fin(hings are as foolloows. 1. the average life expectancy at birth in 1989 is calculateol as 70.8 years in 1989, 2. a gap netween the male and female life expectancies is widened to more than 8 years toorm 1.8 years in 1906 10. It means that the female life expectancy has increased substantially, 3. the death rates of the middle - aged men starting age 40 are found to he relatively higher than those of females and younger age groups. This peculiar pattern was also found with the comparison of those of other countries.

• 한국인구학
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.13-29
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• 1986

This study was carried out to calculate working life expectancy and its potential gains according to the degree of reduction in the specific causes of death. It sought to ascertain what potential gains in labor force longevity might be reasonably achieved through efforts to reduce mortality from injuries and poisoning, diseases of circulatory system, neoplasms and the other causes of death. The data were drawn from the three sources such as "The 1982 Causes of Death Statistics," "Abridged Life Table for Korea 1978~'79" and "The 1982 annual Report of Economically Active Population" issued by Economic Planning Board. Analytical tools used in this study were the cause-deleted life table and the Wolfbein Wool's working life table method. Partial life expectancy was adopted as an index of this study, This application will be widely used as a good demographic tool for analyzing the dynamics of labor force and causes of death. Some of the findings are summerized as follows. 1. Partial life expectancies from initial age 15, 25, and 45 respectively to terminal age 65 are 44.86, 35.59 and 17.41 year in life expectancy itself, 37.08, 32.83 and 15.21 year in working life expectancy, 7.78, 2.76 and 2.20 years in inactive life years. 2. Potential gains in working expectancy from initial age 15, 25 and 45 to terminal age 65 by the complete elimination of the specific causes of death are 1.36, 0.94 and 0.27 years in injuries and poisoning, 0.88, 0.83 and 0.54 years in diseases of circulatory system, 0.56, 0.54 and 0.37 years in neoplasms, 1.13, 1.02 and 0.58 years in the other causes of death. The relationship between degree of reduction in causes of death and potential gains in working life years is in direct proportion. The prime orders of reduction effectiveness in age groups by the causes of death are injuries and poisoning in age 15-24, the other causes of death in age 25-49 and diseases of circulatory system in age 50 and over. 3. If it were possible to reduce 25%, 50% and 75% in mortality condition 1978~'79, the average length of working life would be 38.08, 39.13 and 40.17 years in age 15, and 33.68, 34.57 and 35.44 years in age 25, and 15.67, 16.14 and 16.63 years in age 45.

• 지역사회간호학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.307-315
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• 2012

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the factors influencing the alcohol drinking behavior in female university students. Methods: The subjects were 298 female university students at three universities in J Province and G city. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS/PC+ 15.0. Results: The variables that affected the drinking behavior of female university students were smoking status, pocket money, coping strategy of problem solving, positive expectancy of alcohol drinking and negative expectancy of alcohol drinking. These factors could explain 30.4% of the drinking behavior. Stress did not affect the drinking behavior of subjects. Conclusion: Drinking behavior of the subjects was slightly higher than average for all women. In order to decrease the drinking behavior, the development of drinking reduction programs is needed and it can lead healthy life for female university students.

• 대한근관절건강학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한근관절건강학회 1996년도 제4회 춘계학술대회
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• pp.110-121
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• 1996

It is well defined that osteoporosis is an age related disorder and associated with decreased bone mass. It is one of the most important disease lacing the aging population because of its association with fracture of the hip, vertebrae and distal radius. The disease provoke a significant economic burden and major public health problem of an elderly. The life-time risk of hip fracture in white women is approximately 15% which is equal to the combined risk of breast, uterine, and ovarian cancer. Despite its deleterious effect on women's health, knowledge of the epidemiology of osteoporosis in Korea is only beginning. 1970 in Korea has non as the crossover period between the chronic and an Infectious diseases. As the result, the infant mortality declined and an elderly population in Korea increased significantly in the past decade, The average life expectancy of women in Korea is now about 75 years. Thus, the majority of Korean women will spend approximately one-third of their life in the postmenopause state. Therefore, better understanding of bone metabolism and fracture incidence in Korean population is a great interest for the medical community as well as for public health. Currently, no population based epidemiologic data are available to support the incidence of osteoporotic fractures in Korea. However, available data suggest that significant declining of bone mineral density (BMD [g/$cm^2$]) has been occurring in Korean women after menopause. In same population, peak BMD was observed around 33-39 years of age and continue to decline thereafter. An accelerated bone losses occur after the menopause and the average loss is approximately 13% within 15 years from the menopause. The incidence of fracture was highly correlated with an age and bone mineral density. The mean age of menopause in Korean women was 47 years and this age appears to getting younger when analyzed by the birth cohort. An earlier menopausal age and increase life expectancy place Korean women at increase risk for osteoporosis and bone fracture. Korean or Asian women are no longer protected from the risk of bone fracture. Therefore, an early prevention or intervention schemes are essential before the outbreak of osteoporosis and/or fracture occurs in Korean or Asian women.