• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.115-125
• /
• 2011

By use of a mortality forecasting model and a life table, forecasting the average life expectancy is an effective way to evaluate the future mortality level. There are differences between the actual values of average life expectancy at present and the forecasted values of average life expectancy in population projection 2006 from Statistics Korea. The reason is that the average life expectancy forecasts did not reflect the increasing speed of the actual ones. The main causes of the problem may be errors from judgment for projection, from choice, or use of a mortality forecasting model. In this paper, we focus on the choice of the mortality forecasting model to inspect this problem. Statistics Korea should take a mortality forecasting model with considerable investigation to proceed population projection 2011 without the errors observed in population projection 2006. We compare the five mortality forecasting models that are the LC(Lee and Carter) model used widely and its variants, and the HP8(Heligman and Pollard 8 parameter) model for handling death probability. We make average life expectancy forecasts by sex using modeling results from 2010 to 2030 and compare with that of the population projection 2006 during the same period. The average life expectancy from all five models are forecasted higher than that of the population projection 2006. Therefore, we show that the new average life expectancy forecasts are relatively suitable to the future mortality level.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.93-111
• /
• 2009

This study aims to find out changes of marital status and average marital life expectancy in Korea according to educational attainment. The study produces Korean marriage life table to accomplish the goal of study by introducing Wolfbein-Wool style working life table. Specific data utilized in this study are collected from the Population & Housing Census 2005 and Death Census 2005. Educational attainment is divided into four categories to accommodate to this study: elementary school course and lower, middle school course, high school course, college course and higher. Marriage rate, divorce rate, widowhood rate and death rate according to educational attainment are used as basicdata to analyze marital life expectancy. The results of this study are as follows: 1. As subjects age is younger, the average marital life expectancy of the highly educated tends to be higher. The disparity of average marital life expectancy according to educational attainment is apt to become narrow as subjects age is older. However, the gap between people who graduated from middle school and high school in older age group does not distinctive. 2. Males marital life expectancy is higher than females controlling for their educational attainment. 3. Males live with their wife for most of their lives but females live alone more than 10 years in every single educational categories. Based on the above, this study concludes that the average marital life expectancy is differentiated among age and sex according to educational attainment. Marital rate tends to be higher as educational level is higher. Divorce rate is lower in the highlyeducated group as their age is younger but this is apt to reverse as age is older. Furthermore, bereavement rate shows division according to educational attainmentsince one tends to marry other who has similar level of education with him or her. Therefore, educational attainment acts as an significant factor in Korean average life expectancy.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.61-68
• /
• 2022

In this paper, the change history of various types of MV (Medium Voltage) cables was investigated. In addition, the statistical life expectancy of each type was calculated by using the operation data and the failure data. For cut-off year, 10 years was applied, and realistically applicable statistical life expectancy was calculated by correcting the cause of failure entered by mistake. The life expectancy of FR-CNCO-W was calculated as 51.2 years, CNCV-W 38.1 years, and CNCV 31.4 years and the overall average is 33.8 years. Currently, the life expectancy of TR CNCV-W is 29.4 years, but it is estimated that the lifespan will be extended if failure data is accumulated. As a result, it is expected that life expectancy results can be applied to Asset Management System (AMS) in the future.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.22-32
• /
• 1988

This study was conducted in order to compare the sequential changes of marital partnership and average marital life expectancy in Korea using Korean marriage life table for 1970, 1980, and 1985. The marriage life table was constructed by the Wolfbein-Wool method of constructing a working life table. Data used in this study was obtained from the Population Census Reports of Korea and the Korean Abridged life Tables. Some of the finding may be summarized as follows : 1. The marital partnership findings showed that males in the 40-44 age group in 1970 and in 1980 and those in the 45-49 bracket in 1985 have the highest rates of any other age interval, the percentages were 97.5% 97.3% and 96.9% respectively. The highest marital partnership rates for females were those aged 30-34 in 1970 and in 1980 and 35-39 in 1985:these were 94.6% 94.3% and 93.30% respectively. 2. The marital rate of the youngest age group has decreased due to the increasing amount of people marrying at older ages. On the other hand, the marital rates of the elderly has increased slightly due to the decreasing mortality rate. 3. The enterance rate of marriage at the 15-19 female age group ad the 20-24 male age group has decreased. 4. The secession rate of marriage has gradually decreased due to the decrease in the mortality rate. The main reason of secession for males is his own death. For females, the main reasons are divorce and the death of her spouse. 5. Korean average marital life expectancy has improved in general. In 1985 the average marital life expectancy for males was higher by 4-5 years than for females. The average difference of marital expectancy and life expectancy is about 1.4 - 1.5 years for males and about 11-14 years at the age groups below 60 years for females.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.45-55
• /
• 1989

In recent years the life expectancy of the Korean people has been increasing appreciably because of the improvement in living conditions and public health facilities as well. However, there exist considerable constraints in the measurement of Korea's mortality rate. In elaboration, there are quite a few persons who do not submit birth and death reports, thereby lowering the reliability of statistical data. The 1978-1979 life table of the Korean people is still considered the latest one. Nevertheless, a decade has passed since its publication, and the need for a better life table reflecting realities is inc-reasingly growing. Capitalizing on the annual report of demographic statistics and demographic sample survey data m 1988, I have worked out the 1986 tentative life table of the Korean people and found out the following : 1. The male life expectancy in the 1978-1979 life table of the Korean people is 62.7 years old, and that of the female sex is 69.1 years old whereas the average life expectancy of the male sex in the 1986 life table stands at 66.3 years old, and that of the female sex is 74.5 years old. The average life expectancy is up by 3.5 years old for the male sex and also, up 5.4 years old for the female sex, res-pe ctively. 2. A gap between the male and female life expectancies in the 1978-1979 life table was 6.4 years old, while that of the 1986 life table was 8.2 years old. It means the female life expectancy has increased substantially. 3. The infant mortality rate has decreased, compared with the 1978-1979 level, yet it is still above those of Japan and Taiwan. 4. The mortality rate of the middle - aged men in the forties remains high, as was the case in the 1978-1979 period.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.32 no.5D
• /
• pp.453-461
• /
• 2012

Life analysis is conducted for economic analysis of equipment or facilities. The purpose of life analysis is to predict future indicators for scrapping construction equipment, and establish and utilize a wide variety of business strategies according to data predictions. First, this study shows the methods to figure out average life, life expectancy and life prediction of construction equipment and the analysis of life making methods, using survival curves. Second, the study proposes and examines the life expectancy making model depending on revenues and expenses. The result of the study reveals that the economic life of the same equipment varies with expenses, revenues and the initial cost. The life expectancy making model for construction equipment reflects respective management status for equipment and will help efficient management for companies.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.3-25
• /
• 1990

Life table of Korean population for years 1983 1985 1987 and 1989 were constructed byt the National Bureau of Statics. The ago specific death rates were calculated froom the death registral ion for numerators and the estimated population by age and sex for denominators. In the course of constructing life tables, we have maole some adjustments for deficiencies in regist rat ion olata as follows. First, the non-registered portion oof infant deaths especially for neo-natal deaths was estirnateol and added too the original data. The main reason is that deaths occorring in the neo-natal period and prior to the registrat ion of birth leave little incentive for the registration of either the birth or the death. Second. t he do~hayed p(ortioon of deaths registering after one year of occurrence was estimated and added too the original data. Third t the ptortioon haying in, occuracies in ,~oge reporting was also estimated. Fourth the moving average methood was finally employed in an effort too remove the random error. The major fin(hings are as foolloows. 1. the average life expectancy at birth in 1989 is calculateol as 70.8 years in 1989, 2. a gap netween the male and female life expectancies is widened to more than 8 years toorm 1.8 years in 1906 10. It means that the female life expectancy has increased substantially, 3. the death rates of the middle - aged men starting age 40 are found to he relatively higher than those of females and younger age groups. This peculiar pattern was also found with the comparison of those of other countries.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.13-29
• /
• 1986

This study was carried out to calculate working life expectancy and its potential gains according to the degree of reduction in the specific causes of death. It sought to ascertain what potential gains in labor force longevity might be reasonably achieved through efforts to reduce mortality from injuries and poisoning, diseases of circulatory system, neoplasms and the other causes of death. The data were drawn from the three sources such as "The 1982 Causes of Death Statistics," "Abridged Life Table for Korea 1978~'79" and "The 1982 annual Report of Economically Active Population" issued by Economic Planning Board. Analytical tools used in this study were the cause-deleted life table and the Wolfbein Wool's working life table method. Partial life expectancy was adopted as an index of this study, This application will be widely used as a good demographic tool for analyzing the dynamics of labor force and causes of death. Some of the findings are summerized as follows. 1. Partial life expectancies from initial age 15, 25, and 45 respectively to terminal age 65 are 44.86, 35.59 and 17.41 year in life expectancy itself, 37.08, 32.83 and 15.21 year in working life expectancy, 7.78, 2.76 and 2.20 years in inactive life years. 2. Potential gains in working expectancy from initial age 15, 25 and 45 to terminal age 65 by the complete elimination of the specific causes of death are 1.36, 0.94 and 0.27 years in injuries and poisoning, 0.88, 0.83 and 0.54 years in diseases of circulatory system, 0.56, 0.54 and 0.37 years in neoplasms, 1.13, 1.02 and 0.58 years in the other causes of death. The relationship between degree of reduction in causes of death and potential gains in working life years is in direct proportion. The prime orders of reduction effectiveness in age groups by the causes of death are injuries and poisoning in age 15-24, the other causes of death in age 25-49 and diseases of circulatory system in age 50 and over. 3. If it were possible to reduce 25%, 50% and 75% in mortality condition 1978~'79, the average length of working life would be 38.08, 39.13 and 40.17 years in age 15, and 33.68, 34.57 and 35.44 years in age 25, and 15.67, 16.14 and 16.63 years in age 45.

• Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.307-315
• /
• 2012

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the factors influencing the alcohol drinking behavior in female university students. Methods: The subjects were 298 female university students at three universities in J Province and G city. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS/PC+ 15.0. Results: The variables that affected the drinking behavior of female university students were smoking status, pocket money, coping strategy of problem solving, positive expectancy of alcohol drinking and negative expectancy of alcohol drinking. These factors could explain 30.4% of the drinking behavior. Stress did not affect the drinking behavior of subjects. Conclusion: Drinking behavior of the subjects was slightly higher than average for all women. In order to decrease the drinking behavior, the development of drinking reduction programs is needed and it can lead healthy life for female university students.

• 대한근관절건강학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 1996.04a
• /
• pp.110-121
• /
• 1996

It is well defined that osteoporosis is an age related disorder and associated with decreased bone mass. It is one of the most important disease lacing the aging population because of its association with fracture of the hip, vertebrae and distal radius. The disease provoke a significant economic burden and major public health problem of an elderly. The life-time risk of hip fracture in white women is approximately 15% which is equal to the combined risk of breast, uterine, and ovarian cancer. Despite its deleterious effect on women's health, knowledge of the epidemiology of osteoporosis in Korea is only beginning. 1970 in Korea has non as the crossover period between the chronic and an Infectious diseases. As the result, the infant mortality declined and an elderly population in Korea increased significantly in the past decade, The average life expectancy of women in Korea is now about 75 years. Thus, the majority of Korean women will spend approximately one-third of their life in the postmenopause state. Therefore, better understanding of bone metabolism and fracture incidence in Korean population is a great interest for the medical community as well as for public health. Currently, no population based epidemiologic data are available to support the incidence of osteoporotic fractures in Korea. However, available data suggest that significant declining of bone mineral density (BMD [g/$cm^2$]) has been occurring in Korean women after menopause. In same population, peak BMD was observed around 33-39 years of age and continue to decline thereafter. An accelerated bone losses occur after the menopause and the average loss is approximately 13% within 15 years from the menopause. The incidence of fracture was highly correlated with an age and bone mineral density. The mean age of menopause in Korean women was 47 years and this age appears to getting younger when analyzed by the birth cohort. An earlier menopausal age and increase life expectancy place Korean women at increase risk for osteoporosis and bone fracture. Korean or Asian women are no longer protected from the risk of bone fracture. Therefore, an early prevention or intervention schemes are essential before the outbreak of osteoporosis and/or fracture occurs in Korean or Asian women.