• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.183-200
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• 2007

We consider a nonlinear autoregressive moving average model with nonlinear GARCH errors, and find sufficient conditions for the existence of a strictly stationary solution of three related time series equations. We also consider a geometric ergodicity and functional central limit theorem for a nonlinear autoregressive model with nonlinear ARCH errors. The given model includes broad classes of nonlinear models. New results are obtained, and known results are shown to emerge as special cases.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.639-645
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• 2010

We consider a subdiagonal bilinear model and give sufficient conditions for the associated Markov chain defined by Pham (1985) to be uniformly ergodic and then obtain the $\beta$-mixing property for the given process. To derive the desired properties, we employ the results of generalized random coefficient autoregressive models generated by a matrix-valued polynomial function and vector-valued polynomial function.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2003년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.183-189
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• 2003

A momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model, a nonlinear autoregressive model, is analyzed in a Bayesian framework. Parameter estimation in the presence of missing data is done by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We also propose simple Bayesian test procedures for asymmetry and unit roots. The proposed method is applied to a set of Korea unemployment rate data and reveals evidence for asymmetry and a unit root.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.359-368
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• 1996

The maximum likelihood estimation is discussed for the NLAR model with Laplacian marginals. Since the explicit form of the estimates cannot be obtained due to the complicated nature of the likelihood function we utilize the automatic computer optimization subroutine using a direct search complex algorithm. The conditional least square estimates are used as initial estimates in maximum likelihood procedures. The results of a simulation study for the maximum likelihood estimates of the NLAR(1) and the NLAR(2) models are presented.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제25권12호
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• pp.888-894
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• 2015

A new method for the simulation of the vehicle's interior road noise is proposed in the present study. The road noise model can synthesize road noise of a vehicle for varying driving speed within a range. In the proposed method, interior road noise is considered as a stochastic time-series, and is modeled by a nonstationary parametric model via two steps. First, each interior road noise signal, obtained from constant speed driving tests performed within a range of speed, is modeled as an autoregressive model whose parameters are estimated by using a standard method. Finally, the parameters obtained for different driving speeds are interpolated based on the varying driving speed to yield a time-varying autoregressive model. To model a full band road noise, audible frequency range is divided into an octave band using a wavelet filter bank, and the road noise in each octave band is modeled.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.327-341
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• 2014

This study aims to analyze causality among Wando abalone producer prices by size using a vector autoregressive model to expiscate the leading-price of Wando abalone in various price classes by size per kg. This study, using an analytical approach, applies a unit-root test for stability of data, a Granger causality test to learn about interaction among price classes by size for Wando abalone, and a vector autoregressive model to estimate the statistical impact among t-1 variables used in the model. As a result of our leading-price analysis of Wando abalone producer prices by shell size using a VAR model, first, DF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the Wando abalone monthly price change rate by size differentiated by logarithm were stable. Second, the Granger causality relationship analysis showed that the price change rate for big size abalone weakly led the price change rate for the small and medium sizes of abalone. Third, the vector autoregressive model showed that three price change rates of t-1 period variables statistically, significantly impacted price change rates of own size and other sizes in t period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicated that the impulse responses of structural shocks for price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more powerful in its own size and in other sizes than shocks emanating from other sizes. Fifth, the variance decomposition analysis indicated that the price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more influential than the price change rates for medium and small size abalone.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.1155-1168
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• 2016

기상 자료의 경우 한 지역의 기후가 인접지역의 기후와 비슷한 양상을 띄고 각 지역의 확률 밀도 함수 (probability density function)가 잘 알려진 확률 모형을 따르지 않는다는 것이 알려져 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 특성을 고려하여 이상 기후 현상이 뚜렷히 나타나는 여름철 평균 극한 기온(extreme temperature)의 확률 밀도 함수를 추정하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 공간적 상관관계 (spatial correlation)를 고려하는 비모수 베이지안 (nonparametric Bayesian) 모형인 조건부 자기회귀 종추출 혼합모형 (mixtures of conditional autoregression species sampling model)을 이용하였다. 자료는 이스트앵글리아 대학교 (University of East Anglia)에서 제공하는 전 지구의 최대 기온과 최소 기온자료 중 우리나라에 해당하는 지역의 자료를 사용하였다.

• 청정기술
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.138-146
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• 2022

Electricity has become a factor that dramatically affects the market economy. The day-ahead system marginal price determines electricity prices, and system marginal price forecasting is critical in maintaining energy management systems. There have been several studies using mathematics and machine learning models to forecast the system marginal price, but few studies have been conducted to develop, compare, and analyze various machine learning and deep learning models based on a data-driven framework. Therefore, in this study, different machine learning algorithms (i.e., autoregressive-based models such as the autoregressive integrated moving average model) and deep learning networks (i.e., recurrent neural network-based models such as the long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit model) are considered and integrated evaluation metrics including a forecasting test and information criteria are proposed to discern the optimal forecasting model. A case study of South Korea using long-term time-series system marginal price data from 2016 to 2021 was applied to the developed framework. The results of the study indicate that the autoregressive integrated moving average model (R-squared score: 0.97) and the gated recurrent unit model (R-squared score: 0.94) are appropriate for system marginal price forecasting. This study is expected to contribute significantly to energy management systems and the suggested framework can be explicitly applied for renewable energy networks.

• 전자공학회논문지S
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• 제36S권6호
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• pp.87-95
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• 1999

본 논문에서는 ATM망에서 3차원 동영상 데이터의 시뮬레이션 모델을 제시한다. 이 모델은 슬라이스 레벨에 기초를 두며, PVAR(Projected Vector Autoregressive)모델이라고 명한다. PVAR 모델은 자기상관성(Autocorrelation)과 히스토그램(Histogram)특성을 만족하기 위해 AR(Autoregressive)모델에 기초로 모델링 되고 프로젝션 함수(Projection function)에 의해 실제 데이터를 매핑 한다. 프로젝션 함수로는 CDPF(cumulative distribution probability function)를 사용한다. 이때 과정은 슬라이스 단위로 수행된다. 제안된 모델은 자기 상관성과 히스토그램을 만족시키는데 좋은 성능을 보여주고, 네트워크 성능 분석에 중요하다. 이어서 이것을 주기적 평균값에 의한 Smoothing 방법에 적용한다. 일반적으로 QoS는 버퍼(buffer)에서의 셀 손신과 최대 지연에 관계된 CLR에 달려 있다. 따라서 제안한 Smoothing 기법은 QoS를 향상시키는데 이용할 수 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.533-542
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• 2021

The main objective of this article is to investigate the existence of the lunar effect during the full moon period (FM period) and the new moon period (NM period) on the selected Islamic stock market returns and volatilities. For this purpose, the Ordinary Least Squares model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean model are employed using the mean daily returns data between January 2010 and December 2019. Next, the log-likelihood, Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz Information Criterion value are analyzed to determine the best models for explaining the returns and volatility of returns. The empirical results have deduced that, during the NM period, excluding Malaysia, the total mean daily returns for all of the selected countries have increased mean daily returns in contrast to the mean daily returns during the FM period. The volatility shocks are intense and conditional volatility is persistent in all countries. Subsequently, the volatility behavior tends to have lower volatility during the FM period and NM period in the Islamic stock market, except Malaysia. This article also concluded that the ARCH (1) model is the preferred model for stock returns whereas GARCH-M (1, 1) is preferred for the volatility of returns.