• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.619-632
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• 2014

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been widely used to evaluate the uncertainty of a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system code against a figure of merit. This uncertainty is typically evaluated based on the physical model's uncertainties determined by expert judgment. This paper introduces the application of data assimilation methodology to determine the uncertainty bands of the physical models, e.g., the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters, based upon the statistical approach rather than expert judgment. Data assimilation suggests a mathematical methodology for the best estimate bias and the uncertainties of the physical models which optimize the system response following the calibration of model parameters and responses. The mathematical approaches include deterministic and probabilistic methods of data assimilation to solve both linear and nonlinear problems with the a posteriori distribution of parameters derived based on Bayes' theorem. The inverse problem was solved analytically to obtain the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters assuming Gaussian distributions for the parameters and responses, and a sampling method was utilized to illustrate the non-Gaussian a posteriori distributions of parameters. SPACE is used to demonstrate the data assimilation method by determining the bias and the uncertainty bands of the physical models employing Bennett's heated tube test data and Becker's post critical heat flux experimental data. Based on the results of the data assimilation process, the major sources of the modeling uncertainties were identified for further model development.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.423-440
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• 2023

The updated version of Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GODAPS) in the NIMS/KMA (National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration), which has been in operation since December 2021, is being introduced. This technical note on GODAPS2 describes main progress and updates to the previous version of GODAPS, a software tool for the operating system, and its improvements. GODAPS2 is based on Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) vn14.1, instead of previous version, FOAM vn13. The southern limit of the model domain has been extended from 77°S to 85°S, allowing the modelling of the circulation under ice shelves in Antarctica. The adoption of non-linear free surface and variable volume layers, the update of vertical mixing parameterization, and the adjustment of isopycnal diffusion coefficient for the ocean model decrease the model biases. For the sea-ice model, four vertical ice layers and an additional snow layer on top of the ice layers are being used instead of previous single ice and snow layers. The changes for data assimilation include the updated treatment for background error covariance, a newly added bias scheme combined with observation bias, the application of a new bias correction for sea level anomaly, an extension of the assimilation window from 1 day to 2 days, and separate assimilations for ocean and sea-ice. For comparison, we present the difference between GODAPS and GODAPS2. The verification results show that GODAPS2 yields an overall improved simulation compared to GODAPS.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.7
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• pp.2377-2386
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• 2021

To model the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accident is very important for nuclear emergency. But the uncertainty of model parameters, such as source term and meteorological data, may significantly affect the prediction accuracy. Data assimilation (DA) is usually used to improve the model prediction with the measurements. The paper proposed a parameter bias transformation method combined with Lagrangian puff model to perform DA. The method uses the transformation of coordinates to approximate the effect of parameters bias. The uncertainty of four model parameters is considered in the paper: release rate, wind speed, wind direction and plume height. And particle swarm optimization is used for searching the optimal parameters. Twin experiment and Kincaid experiment are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can effectively increase the reliability of model prediction and estimate the parameters. It has the advantage of clear concept and simple calculation. It will be useful for improving the result of atmospheric dispersion model at the early stage of nuclear emergency.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.205-205
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• 2021

Surface soil moisture, which governs the partitioning of precipitation into infiltration and runoff, plays an important role in the hydrological cycle. The assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model or hydrological model has been shown to improve the predictive skill of hydrological variables. This study aims to improve streamflow prediction with Weather Research and Forecasting model-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) by assimilating Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) data at 3 km and analyze its impacts on hydrological components. We applied Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) technique to remove the bias of SMAP data and assimilate SMAP data (April to July 2015-2019) into WRF-Hydro by using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) with a total 12 ensembles. Daily inflow and soil moisture estimates of major dams (Soyanggang, Chungju, Sumjin dam) of South Korea were evaluated. We investigated how hydrologic variables such as runoff, evaporation and soil moisture were better simulated with the data assimilation than without the data assimilation. The result shows that the correlation coefficient of topsoil moisture can be improved, however a change of dam inflow was not outstanding. It may attribute to the fact that soil moisture memory and the respective memory of runoff play on different time scales. These findings demonstrate that the assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals can improve the predictive skill of hydrological variables for a better understanding of the water cycle.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.46
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• pp.323-353
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• 2009

Press (un)fairness has been a social issue in Korea. The previous research focused mainly on the suggestion of fairness norms, principles, concepts, and definitions. Also, the research tried to measure the degree of fairness by analyzing press contents. This study attempted to overcome the media- and source-oriented approach proposing ordinary press consumers' perspectives. The study posited that one's fairness judgment would be greatly influenced by his or her preexisting attitudes on issue. Based on social judgment theory and hostile media perception framework, the research expected 'assimilation' bias for attitudinally congruent group and 'contrast' bias for attitudinally incongruent group. An $3\times3\times2$ experimental design was employed to test the theoretical predictions. The results found assimilation and contrast bias for strong attitude groups who read one-sided and two-sided messages. The results also implied hostile media perception occurred by selective categorization. Also the difficulty and limitation of traditional fairness judgment and media-centered approach was discussed.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.319-333
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• 2020

Aircraft observations constitute one of the major sources of temperature observations which provide three-dimensional information. But it is well known that the aircraft temperature data have warm bias against sonde observation data, and therefore, the correction of aircraft temperature bias is important to improve the model performance. In this study, the algorithm of the bias correction modified from operational KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) global model is adopted in the preprocessing of aircraft observations, and the effect of the bias correction of aircraft temperature is investigated by conducting the two experiments. The assimilation with the bias correction showed better consistency in the analysis-forecast cycle in terms of the differences between observations (radiosonde and GPSRO (Global Positioning System Radio Occultation)) and 6h forecast. This resulted in an improved forecasting skill level of the mid-level temperature and geopotential height in terms of the root-mean-square error. It was noted that the benefits of the correction of aircraft temperature bias was the upper-level temperature in the midlatitudes, and this affected various parameters (winds, geopotential height) via the model dynamics.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.191-206
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• 2022

Assimilation trials were performed using the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) Korea Integrated Model (KIM) semi-operational forecast system to assess the impact of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) on forecast. To use the optimal observation in data assimilation of KIM forecast system, in this study, the ZTD observation were pre-processed. It involves the bias correction using long term background of KIM, the quality control based on background and the thinning of ZTD data. Also, to give the effect of observation directly to data assimilation, the observation operator which include non-linear model, tangent linear model, adjoint model, and jacobian code was developed and verified. As a result, impact of ZTD observation in both analysis and forecast was neutral or slightly positive on most meteorological variables, but positive on geopotential height. In addition, ZTD observations contributed to the improvement on precipitation of KIM forecast, specially over 5 mm/day precipitation intensity.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.69-78
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• 2005

ARCO and TAO data which supply three dimensional global ocean information are assimilated to the background field from a general circulation model, MOM3. Using a variational Analysis using Filter (VAF), which is a spatial variational filter designed to reduce computational time and space efficiently and economically, observed ARGO and TAO data are assimilated to the OGCM-generated background sea temperature for the generation of initial condition of the model. For the assessment of the assimilation impact, a comparative experiment has been done by integrating the model from different intial conditions: one from ARGO-, TAO-data assimilated initial condition and the other from background state without assimilation. The assimilated analysis field not only depicts major oceanic features more realistically but also reduces several systematic model bias that appear in every current OGCMs experiments. From the 10-month of model integrations with and without assimilated initial conditions, it is found that the major assimilated characteristics in sea temperature appeared in the initial field remain persistently throughout the integration. Such implies that the assimilated characteristics of the reduced sea temperature bias is to last in the integration without rapid restoration to the non-assimilated OGCM integration state by dispersing mass field in the form of internal gravity waves. From our analysis, it is concluded that the data assimilation method adapted in this study to MOM3 is reasonable and applicable with dynamical consistency. The success in generating initial condition with ARGO and TAO data assimilation has significant implication upon the prediction of the long-term climate and weather using ocean-atmosphere coupled model.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.241-255
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• 2019

Bias correction (BC) and quality control (QC) are essential steps for the proper use of satellite observations in data assimilation (DA) system. BC should be calculated over quality controlled observation. And also QC should be performed for bias corrected observation. In the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) Package for Observation Processing (KPOP), we adopted an adaptive BC method that calculates the BC coefficients with background at the analysis time rather than using static BC coefficients. In this study, we have developed an iterative QC-BC method for Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) to reduce the negative feedback from the interaction between BC and QC. The new iterative QC-BC is evaluated in the KIAPS 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA cycle for January 2016. The iterative QC-BC method for AMSU-A shows globally significant benefits for error reduction of the temperature. The positive impacts for the temperature were predominant at latitudes of $30^{\circ}{\sim}90^{\circ}$ of both hemispheres. Moreover, the background warm bias across the troposphere is decreased. Even though AMSU-A is mainly designed for atmospheric temperature sounding, the improvement of AMSU-A pre-processing module has a positive impact on the wind component over latitudes of $30^{\circ}S$ near upper-troposphere, respectively. Consequently, the 3-day-forecast-accuracy is improved about 1% for temperature and zonal wind in the troposphere.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.983-999
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• 2010

Wind power energy is one of the favorable and fast growing renewable energies. It is most important for exact analysis of wind to evaluate and forecast the wind power energy. The purpose of this study is to improve the performance of numerical atmospheric model by data assimilation over a complex coastal area. The benefit of the profiler is its high temporal resolution and dense observation data at the lower troposphere. Three wind profiler sites used in this study are inhomogeneously situated near south-western coastal area of Korean Peninsula. The method of the data assimilation for using the profiler to the model simulation is the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR). The experiment of two cases, with/without assimilation, were conducted for how to effect on model results with wind profiler data. It was found that the assimilated case shows the more reasonable results than the other case compared with vertical observation and surface Automatic Weather Station(AWS) data. Although the effect of sonde data was better than profiler at a higher altitude, the profiler data improves the model performance at lower atmosphere. Comparison with the results of 4 June and 5 June suggests that the efficiency with hourly assimilated profiler data is strongly influenced by synoptic conditions. The reduction rate of Normalized Mean Error(NME), mean bias normalized by averaged wind speed of observation, on 4 June was 28% which was larger than 13% of 5 June. In order to examine the difference in wind power energy, the wind power density(WPD) was calculated and compared.