• Title/Summary/Keyword: approximate estimating

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Estimation for the scale parameter of Weibull Distribution Based on Multiply Censored Samples

  • Han, Jun-Tae;Kang, Suk-Bok;Lee, Hwa-Jung
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2004
  • We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution based on multiply Type-II censord samples. We propose some estimators by using the approximate maximum likelihood estimation method. The proposed estimators are compared in the sense of the mean squared error.

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Estimation of Weibull Scale Parameter Based on Multiply Type-II Censored Samples

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Lee, Hwa-Jung;Han, Jun-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.593-603
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    • 2004
  • We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution based on multiply Type-II censored samples. We propose two estimators by using the approximate maximum likelihood estimation method for Weibull and extreme value distributions. The proposed estimators are compared in the sense of the mean squared error.

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Approximate Estimating of Plant Construction Duration Using a Standard Schedule Model (초기 사업단계에서 표준공정모델을 이용한 가스 플랜트 공사의 개략적 공사기간 산정)

  • Moon, Sung-Woo;Park, Sang-Chun;Kwon, Ki-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.26-33
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    • 2009
  • The required level of detail in scheduling depends on the stages in the construction life-cycle. The objective of this study is to provide a Standardized Schedule Model (SSM) with an aim to facilitate the estimating of construction duration in the planning stage. The SSM modularizes work items; establishes relations between preceding and succeeding activities; and calculates approximate construction duration. The estimated duration of the SSM was compared with the detailed duration from the commercial scheduling tool using actual work activities. The difference showed to be ranged between -3.1% and +15%, which demonstrates that the SSM can be feasibly applied to the approximate estimation of construction duration.

Development of the Approximate Cost Estimating Model for PSC Box Girder Bridge based on the Breakdown of Standard Work (대표공종 기반의 PSC Box 교량 상부공사 개략공사비 산정모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Bum;Cho, Ji-Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.791-800
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    • 2013
  • Needs for developing a better way of cost estimating process for public construction projects have been widely recognized. Those needs are mainly from the early phases of the project through the construction life cycle due to the its importance to the control process. In contrast to the traditional estimating method based on unit-price references, this research utilized this following process. The first step is analyzing the real cost data from actual cost activities (2000~2010) about the statement of P.S.C(Prestressed Concrete) Box Girder Bridge. The collected data was broken into four categories based on technical construction methods such as I.L.M(Incremental Launching Method), M.S.S(Movable Scaffolding System), F.S.M(Full Staging Method), and F.C.M(Free Cantilever Method). The second, actual design documents including the actual cost estimating documents, drawings and specifications were carefully reviewed to cluster the cost itemized statement from four categories. It was also attempted to seek the proper breakdown of standard works that are responsible for more than 95 percentage in each categories in terms of its cost. The third, this research comes up the index for standard unit materials and unit price of standard work and develops the approximate estimating model applying for the specification(length and breadth of bridges) per square area that the user takes as well as suggests the practical application plan within the original time alloted.

Multicut high dimensional model representation for reliability analysis

  • Chowdhury, Rajib;Rao, B.N.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.651-674
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a novel method for predicting the failure probability of structural or mechanical systems subjected to random loads and material properties involving multiple design points. The method involves Multicut High Dimensional Model Representation (Multicut-HDMR) technique in conjunction with moving least squares to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function with an explicit function. Depending on the order chosen sometimes truncated Cut-HDMR expansion is unable to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function when multiple design points exist on the limit state/performance function or when the problem domain is large. Multicut-HDMR addresses this problem by using multiple reference points to improve accuracy of the approximate limit state/performance function. Numerical examples show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach in estimating the failure probability.

Estimation Model for Approximate Construction Quantities of Suspension Bridge in Early Stage (사업기획단계에서의 현수교의 물량추정을 위한 모델연구)

  • Park, Weon-Tae;Chun, Kyoung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Advanced Composite Structures
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2015
  • Bridge construction cost estimates have generally been conducted by using historial unit-price(per meter or square meter). The traditional estimating method based on unit-price references can never completely reflect the specialty of cable supported bridge. In this paper, we have developed the system for supporting the approximate construction cost and the quantity estimation based on 3D model information in the pre-project planning phase of 3-span continuous suspension bridge with 2-pylons. First of all, we'd analyzed the design information (such as structural design report, blueprint and quantity) and the real cost data from the existing suspension bridges and derived the design variables of the bridges. We developed the BIM wizard that generates a suspension bridge model parametrically based on derived design variables. The principle material quantities of suspension bridge are calculated directly from 3-dimensional bridge model built by using the BIM wizard. We have established the system that the construction cost can be estimated more specific than the traditional estimating method.

A New Method of Estimating the Buried Location and Extracting Approximate image of Underground Structures using Ground Penetrating Radar (지하 탐사용 레이다를 이용한 지하 구조물의 위치 파악법 및 근사 이미지 추출법)

  • 김동호;이승학;김채영
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.565-574
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    • 2000
  • A new ground penetrating radar imaging method for the estimation of buried artificial structures location and their approximate shapes in dispersive lossy ground is investigated. Fundamental idea is based on estimating delayed time and amplitude retrieval coefficients from scattered signals by buried scatterers. Using absolute value integration of each scanning site not only improve the accuracy of measured scattered signal, but also offers convenient ways to extract the image of buried structures. Multi-term Debye model was employed to describe a dispersive and lossy ground medium. We used the finite difference time domain method to discretize the wave equation in continuous form into the machine suitable form. This imaging method uses a new wave path tracing technique in time domain, which is helpful to identify the exact position of buried structures against the ground surface fluctuations.

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Development of Approximate Cost Estimate Model for Aqueduct Bridges Restoration - Focusing on Comparison between Regression Analysis and Case-Based Reasoning - (수로교 개보수를 위한 개략공사비 산정 모델 개발 - 회귀분석과 사례기반추론의 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Geon Yeong;Cho, Jae Yong;Huh, Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.1693-1705
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    • 2013
  • To restore old aqueduct in Korea which is a irrigation bridge to supply water in paddy field area, it is needed to estimate approximate costs of restoration because the basic design for estimation of construction costs is often ruled out in current system. In this paper, estimating models of construction costs were developed on the basis of performance data for restoration of RC aqueduct bridges since 2003. The regression analysis (RA) model and case-based reasoning (CBR) model for the estimation of construction costs were developed respectively. Error rate of simple RA model was lower than that of multiple RA model. CBR model using genetic algorithm (GA) has been applied in the estimation of construction costs. In the model three factors like attribute weight, attribute deviation and rank of case similarity were optimized. Especially, error rate of estimated construction costs decreased since limit ranges of the attribute weights were applied. The results showed that error rates between RA model and CBR models were inconsiderable statistically. It is expected that the proposed estimating method of approximate costs of aqueduct restoration will be utilized to support quick decision making in phased rehabilitation project.

Development of a model for an equation for estimating construction costs based on the resource-based cost estimating system for TBM (TBM 공법의 자원기반 적산 방식에 의한 개산 공사비 예측 식 모델 개발)

  • Han, Seung-Hee;Park, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1474-1480
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    • 2013
  • This study attempted to estimate construction costs in accordance with the resource-based cost estimation (unit cost price) system by diameter for TBM method, and analyzed the direct cost and the total cost. Based on such figures, this study performed a regression analysis and proposed a model for an equation for estimating construction costs. model for the resource-based cost estimation (unit cost price) system classified by diameter for TBM method proposed by this study can be effectively applied to business planning, preliminary investigation, feasibility study, construction cost estimations in the early design stages.

On the Approximate Estimation of the Mean Physical Stock in Periodic Review Inventory Systems with Lost Sales (판매 손실이 발생하는 정기발주 재고시스템에서 평균보유재고를 계산하는 근사적 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Changkyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 2015
  • One of the most usual indicators to measure the performance of any inventory policy is the mean physical stock. In general, when estimating the mean physical stock in periodic review inventory systems, approximate approaches are often utilized by practitioners and researchers. The mean physical stock is generally calculated by a simple approximation. Still these simple methods are frequently used to analyze various single stockpoint and multi-echelon inventory systems. However, such a simple approximation can be very inaccurate. This is particularly true for low service levels. Even though exact methods to calculate the mean physical stock have been derived, they are available for specific cases only and computationally not very efficient, and therefore less useful in practice. In literature, approximate approaches, such as the simple, the linear, and Simpson approximations, were derived for the periodic review inventory systems that allow backorders. This paper modifies the approximate approaches for the lost sales case and evaluates the modified approximate approaches. Through computational experiments, average (and maximum) percentage deviations of mean physical stock between the exact method and the modified approximations are compared in the periodic review inventory system with lost sales. The same comparison between the modified and the original approximations are also conducted, in order to examine the performance of modified approximations. The results show that all modified approximations perform well for high service levels, but also that the performance may deteriorate fast with decreasing service level. The modified Simpson approximation is clearly better. In addition, the comparison between the modified and the original approximations in the periodic review inventory system with lost sales shows that the modified approximation outperforms the original approximation.