• Title/Summary/Keyword: annual models

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The Combined Effect of Subjective Body Image and Body Mass Index (Distorted Body Weight Perception) on Suicidal Ideation

  • Shin, Jaeyong;Choi, Young;Han, Kyu-Tae;Cheon, Sung-Youn;Kim, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Sang Gyu;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: Mental health disorders and suicide are an important and growing public health concern in Korea. Evidence has shown that both globally and in Korea, obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing some psychiatric disorders. Therefore, we examined the association between distorted body weight perception (BWP) and suicidal ideation. Methods: Data were obtained from the 2007-2012 Korea National Health and Nutritional Evaluation Survey (KNHANES), an annual cross-sectional nationwide survey that included 14 276 men and 19 428 women. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to investigate the associations between nine BWP categories, which combined body image (BI) and body mass index (BMI) categories, and suicidal ideation. Moreover, the fitness of our models was verified using the Akaike information criterion. Results: Consistent with previous studies, suicidal ideation was associated with marital status, household income, education level, and perceived health status in both genders. Only women were significantly more likely to have distorted BWP; there was no relationship among men. In category B1 (low BMI and normal BI), women (odds ratio [OR], 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48 to 3.42) were more likely to express suicidal ideation than women in category B2 (normal BMI and normal BI) were. Women in overweight BWP category C2 (normal BMI and fat BI) also had an increased OR for suicidal ideation (OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.48 to 3.42). Those in normal BWP categories were not likely to have suicidal ideation. Among women in the underweight BWP categories, only the OR for those in category A2 (normal BMI and thin BI) was significant (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.59). Conclusions: Distorted BWP should be considered an important factor in the prevention of suicide and for the improvement of mental health among Korean adults, especially Korean women with distorted BWPs.

Sediment Properties and Long-term Bed Change of Munsancheon (문산천의 유사특성 및 장기하상변동 예측)

  • Lee, Jae-Geun;Ahn, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.329-341
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted with the national river, Munsancheon, which is located in Paju-si, Gyeonggi-do. The sediment discharge of Munsancheon was directly measured to analyze the sediment characteristics, and the results were used in the numerical model to predict the long-term river bed variation. The flow-total sediment discharge relation was derived using the measured total sediment discharge, and the results were compared with the total sediment discharge that was calculated using the existing prediction formula to derive a proper sediment discharge prediction method. In the actual measurements, the total annual sediment discharge was 5,478 ton/year, and the specific sediment discharge was 29.23 ton/$km^2$/year. The Ackers & White formula resulted in the values very close to the actual measurements. With the actual sediment discharge, geographical and hydrologic data as the input variables, HEC-6 and GSTARS models were comparatively analyzed. The test results showed that the HEC-6 model is suitable for the reliable prediction of the long-term river bed variation. Accordingly, the model was used for the long-term river bed variation prediction in this study. In the case of Munsancheon, deposition was continued in the downstream area and erosion occurred in the upstream area on the whole. It was expected that the stream would be stabilized in the river bed condition of 20 years later. The river bed variation was within 1 m, which was at the significance level. In the downstream area that is influenced by tide, however, the accumulation was continuously increasing within the section 2,000-7,000 m from the outlet. It seems that this should be considered in establishing the river management plans.

Robust Diagnostic World Ocean Circulation with Half-Degree Resolution (1/2$^{\circ}$해상도의 진단적 전구 해수순환모형 연구)

  • 최병호;웨이체첸;팡구오홍;최영진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2001
  • Global robust diagnostic models are established based on MOM of GFDL to study the circulation in the world ocean. The horizontal grid sizes 1/2 degree, and the vertical water column is divided into 21 levels. The hydrographic data are taken from Levitus et al.(1994) and the wind stress from Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983). Based on the model results the horizontal volume, heat and salt transports across some representative sections are calculated. The preliminary results show that Though the cross-equator volume transports in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans are all small, the heat transports across equator in the Atlantic are northward. This is clearly a result of the southward flow of the North Atlantic Deep Water and the northward compensating warm flow in the upper layer. The annual mean of the cross-equator heat transport in the Pacific Ocean from the present model is significantly lower than that calculated by Philander et at. (1987). This might indicate the importance of the Indonesian Throughflow in the heat transport in the Pacific Ocean. Our calculation shows that the heat transport through the Indonesian Archipelago is 0.5 PW, which is comparable with the poleward heat transport in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The difference in heat transports across the sections 5 and 6 demonstrates the important role of the Agulhas Current in the heat balance of the world ocean.

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A Study on Economic Evaluation of Beneficiary Pays Principle in Water Resource Management - The Case of Namyangju in Korea - (수자원관리 부문에서 수혜자부담원칙 경제적 평가에 관한 연구 - 남양주시 사례분석 -)

  • Yoon, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.323-336
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    • 2014
  • Using hedonic price method, this paper analyzes the impact of restriction for water quality protection on property value with the officially announced price of reference land in the city of Namyangju in 2012 to evaluate Water Use Fee, based on beneficiary pays principle, levied on the downstream area of the Han River in Korea. The results from the regression analyses of the models used show that the double-log model is the preferred model in the case of Namyangju. Using the double-log model, the total compensation for the city of Namyangju is estimated to be 8.6 trillion won with 95% confidence interval between 4.4 trillion and 12.4 trillion won. Under the perpetuity compensation scheme at the discount rate of 10%, the estimated annual compensation is 0.9 trillion won with 95% confidence interval between 0.4 trillion and 1.2 trillion won. This is more than Water Use Fee collected in 2012 for the Han River, which is approximately 0.5 trillion won. Considering the size of the restricted area of the Paldang area, which is more than 18 times of that of Namyangju, the rate of Water Use Fee, which is based on beneficiary pays principle and imposed on the residents of the downstream area, needs to be increased to sufficiently compensate the economic loss caused to the upstream areas of the Han River in Korea.

Coping with Climage Change through Coordinated Operations of the Andong & Imha Dams (안동-임하댐 연계운영을 통한 미래 기후변화 대응)

  • Park, Junehyeong;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1141-1155
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    • 2013
  • A number of studies have been performed to analyze climate change impacts of water resources system. In this study, a coordinated dam operation is compared with an existing operation strategy for coping with projected future runoff scenarios. GCMs (Global Circulation Models) and the LARS-WG downscaling method was used to project future climate scenarios. The water balance model called abcd was employed to estimate future runoff scenarios. The existing dam operation comes from the national dam construction guideline, which is called the "level-operation method." The alternative coordinated dam operation are constructed as a linear programming using New York City rule for refill and drawdown seasons. The results of annual total inflow in future is projected to decrease to 72.81% for Andong dam basin and 65.65% for Imha dam basin. As a result of applying future runoff scenarios into the dam operation model, the reliability of coordinated dam operation, 62.22%, is higher than the reliability of single dam operation, 46.55%. Especially, the difference gets larger as the reliability is low because of lack of water. Therefore, the coordinated operation in the Andong & Imha dams are identified as more appropriate alternative than the existing single operation to respond to water-level change caused by climate change.

Development of Stochastic Downscaling Method for Rainfall Data Using GCM (GCM Ensemble을 활용한 추계학적 강우자료 상세화 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Yoon, Sun-Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.9
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    • pp.825-838
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    • 2014
  • The stationary Markov chain model has been widely used as a daily rainfall simulation model. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical characteristics do not change over time and do not have any trends. In other words, the stationary Markov chain model for daily rainfall simulation essentially can not incorporate any changes in mean or variance into the model. Here we develop a Non-stationary hidden Markov chain model (NHMM) based stochastic downscaling scheme for simulating the daily rainfall sequences, using general circulation models (GCMs) as inputs. It has been acknowledged that GCMs perform well with respect to annual and seasonal variation at large spatial scale and they stand as one of the primary sources for obtaining forecasts. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at three stations in Nakdong watershed. The model showed a better performance in reproducing most of the statistics associated with daily and seasonal rainfall. In particular, the proposed model provided a significant improvement in reproducing the extremes. It was confirmed that the proposed model could be used as a downscaling model for the purpose of generating plausible daily rainfall scenarios if elaborate GCM forecasts can used as a predictor. Also, the proposed NHMM model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are used as inputs.

Spatio-tempers Change Prediction and Variability of Temperature and Precipitation (기온 및 강수량의 시공간 변화예측 및 변이성)

  • Lee, Min-A;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Song, Chul-Chul;Lee, Jun-Hak;Choi, Hyun-Ah;Kim, Tae-Min
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.267-278
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    • 2007
  • Internationally many models are developed and applied to predict the impact of the climate change, as occurring a lot of symptoms by climate change. Also, in Korea, according to increasing the application of the climate effect model in many research fields, it is required to study the method for preparing climate data and the characteristics of the climate. In this study IDSW (Inverse Distance Squared Weighting), one of the spatial statistic methods, is applied to interpolate. This method estimates a point of interest by assigning more weight to closer points, which are limited to be select by 3 in 100 km radius. As a result, annual average temperature and precipitation had increased by $0.4^{\circ}C$ and 412 mm during 1977 to 2006. They are also predicted to increase by $3.96^{\circ}C$, 319 mm in the 2100 compared to 2007. High variability of temperature and precipitation for last 30 years shows in some part of the Gangwon-do and in the southern part of Korea. Besides in the study of the variable trend, the variability of temperature and precipitation is inclined to increase in Gangwon-do and southern east part, respectively. However, during 2071 to 2100 variability of temperature is predicted to be high in midwest of Korea and variability of precipitation in the east. In the trend of variability, variability of temperature is apt to increase into west south, and variability of precipitation increase in midwest and a part of south.

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Comparison of Methods for the Analysis Percentile of Seismic Hazards (지진재해도의 백분위수 분석 방법 비교)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Me;Seo, Jung-Moon;Kim, Min-Kyu;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2011
  • Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which can effectively apply inevitable uncertainties in seismic data, considers a number of seismotectonic models and attenuation equations. The calculated hazard by PSHA is generally a value dependent on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and expresses the value as an annual exceedance probability. To represent the uncertainty range of a hazard which has occurred using various seismic data, a hazard curve figure shows both a mean curve and percentile curves (15, 50, and 85). The percentile performs an important role in that it indicates the uncertainty range of the calculated hazard, could be calculated using various methods by the relation of the weight and hazard. This study using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, the maximum likelihood method, and the moment method, has calculated the percentile of the computed hazard by PSHA on the Shinuljin 1, 2 site. The calculated percentile using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, and the maximum likelihood method, have similar trends and represent the range of all computed hazards by PSHA. The calculated percentile using the moment method effectively showed the range of hazards at the source which includes a site. This study suggests the moment method as effective percentile calculation method considering the almost same mean hazard for the seismotectonic model and a source which includes a site.

An Empirical Study on the IPO Firms' Financial Performance Achieved by R&D Expenditures Using Statistical Models (IPO Affect Firm's Performance after IPO, between KOSPI) (연구개발비가 기업경영 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (IPO이전과 이후 코스피기업의 시계열 분석을 중심으로))

  • Park, Kyung-Joo;Yang, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.842-864
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    • 2006
  • This paper deals with an empirical study to statistically analyse various financial performances of the selected IPO firms using their investments on research and development(R&D) as an independent variables. The major results of statistical analyses have come up with the followings: 1) The regression analyses for change in average annual total market stock value/total assets over that of R&D expenditures showed the positive relationship, However, those of sales volume and net assets per share showed negative without statistical significances. 2) The statistical analyses in effect of the 3-year average total market stock value/total assets over the 3-year average R&D expenditures resulted in the positive coefficients what are statistically significant at 95% level. 3) Another statistical analysis showed that the financial performances of the IPO finns with deferred assets were better than those of the firms without them. In sum, the degree of investment on R&D by the IPO firms are expected to positively affect their financial performances except the Finns without having proper original technologies.

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Understory Evapotranspiration Measured by Eddy-Covariance in Gwangneung Deciduous and Coniferous Forests (광릉 활엽수림과 침엽수림에서 에디공분산으로 관측한 하부 군락의 증발산)

  • Kang, Min-Seok;Kwon, Hyo-Jung;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.233-246
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    • 2009
  • The partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) is critical in understanding the water cycle and the couplings between the cycles of energy, water, and carbon. In forests, the total ET measured above the canopy consists of T from both overstory and understory vegetation, and E from soil and the intercepted precipitation. To quantify their relative contributions, we have measured ET from the floors of deciduous and coniferous forests in Gwangneung using eddy covariance technique from 1 June 2008 to 31 May 2009. Due to smaller eddies that contribute to turbulent transfer near the ground, we performed a spectrum analysis and found that the errors associated with sensor separation were <10%. The annual sum of the understory ET was 59 mm (16% of total ET) in the deciduous forest and 43 mm (~7%) in the coniferous forest. Overall, the understory ET was not negligible except during the summer season when the plant area index was near its maximum. In both forest canopies, the decoupling factor ($\Omega$) was about ~0.15, indicating that the understory ET was controlled mainly by vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture content. The differences in the understory ET between the two forest canopies were due to different environmental conditions within the canopies, particularly the contrasting air humidity and soil water content. The non-negligible understory ET in the Gwangneung forests suggests that the dual source or multi-level models are required for the interpretation and modeling of surface exchange of mass and energy in these forests.