• Title/Summary/Keyword: analysis of statistics and reliability

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Current Status and Improvement of the Fisheries Supply and Demand Statistics (수산물 수급통계 실태 및 개선과제)

  • Lee, Heon-Dong;Kim, Dae-Young
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to identify problems and suggest improvements of estimating procedures and item of fisheries supply-demand statistics served as a basis for the fisheries supply-demand policies. Korea Rural Economic Institute(KREI) and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries(MOF) respectively publish the fisheries supply-demand statistics. But the reliability of data is low as the statistics of these two organizations are limited and show discrepancy in the numbers. It is therefore difficult to use them as the basic data for policies. Also, an accurate data aggregation is difficult due to following problems in the items of statistics. 1) Problems in estimating route sales and non-route sales of production, 2) adequacy of fishery product yield rate compared to raw material in the fisheries import/export sector, 3) selection of target companies for understand stocks and survey scope of fish species, 4) applying'0'to non-edible product demand etc. In order to develop the fisheries industry as a future growth industry, it is necessary to establish the accurate fisheries supply-demand policy as the instability of fisheries supply and demand is increasing. To do this, statistical reliability has to be improved. The improvements proposed in this study should be implemented considering urgency. First of all, an exhaustive analysis of stock statistics and conversion rates of raw material yield in the fisheries import/export sector should be conducted. In the medium term and the long term, transferring production statistics to MOF and surveys on the use demand of non-food product and the level of reduced and discarded seafood products should be carried out in consecutive order.

Bayesian reliability estimation of bivariate Marshal-Olkin exponential stress-strength model

  • Chandra, N.;Pandey, M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2012
  • In this article we attempted reliability analysis of a component under the stress-strength pattern with both classical as well as Bayesian techniques. The main focus is made to develop the theory for dealing the reliability problems in various circumstances for bivariate environmental set up in context of Bayesian paradigm. A stress-strength based model describes the life of a component which has strength (Y) and is subjected to stress(X). We develop the Bayes and moment estimators of reliability of a component for each of the three possible conditions, under the assumption that the two stresses (i.e. $X_1$ and $X_2$) on a component are dependent and follow a Bivariate exponential (BVE) of Marshall-Olkin distribution, the strength of a component (Y) following exponential distribution is independent of the stresses. The simulation study is performed with Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique via Gibbs sampler to obtain the estimates of Bayes estimators of reliability, are compared with moment estimators of reliabilities on the basis of absolute biases.

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Reliability Analysis under the Competing Risks (경쟁적 위험하에서의 신뢰성 분석)

  • Baik, Jaiwook
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

A Study of Reliability Analysis and Application on Naval Combat System Using Field Critical Failure Data (야전 치명고장자료를 이용한 함정전투체계 신뢰성 분석 및 활용 방안)

  • Kim, Young-Jin;Oh, Hyun-Seung;Choi, Bong-Wan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2016
  • Naval combat system developed in-country is progressing at an alarming rate since 2000. ROK navy will be achieved all vessels that have combat system in the near future. The importance of System Engineering and Integrated Logistics Support based on reliability analysis is increasing. However, reliability analysis that everyone trusted and recognized is not enough and applied practically for development of Defense Acquisition Program. In particular, Existing Reliability Analysis is focusing on reliability index (Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) etc.) for policy decision of defense improvement project. Most of the weapon system acquisition process applying in the exponential distribution simply persist unreality due to memoryless property. Critical failures are more important than simple faults to ship's operator. There are no confirmed cases of reliability analysis involved with critical failure that naval ship scheduler and operator concerned sensitively. Therefore, this study is focusing on Mean Time To Critical Failure (MTTCF), reliability on specific time and Operational Readiness Float (ORF) requirements related to critical failure of Patrol Killer Guided missile (PKG) combat system that is beginning of naval combat system developed in-country. Methods of analysis is applied parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. It is compared to the estimates and proposed applications. The result of study shows that parametric and non-parametric estimators should be applied differently depending on purpose of utilization based on test of normality. For the first time, this study is offering Reliability of ROK Naval combat system to stakeholders involved with defense improvement project. Decision makers of defense improvement project have to active support and effort in this area for improvement of System Engineering.

FORM Reliability-based Resistance Factors for Driven Steel Pipe Piles (FORM 신뢰성 기반 항타강관말뚝 저항계수 산정)

  • Park, Jae-Hyun;Huh, Jung-Won;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Chung, Moon-Kyung;Kwak, Ki-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.779-783
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    • 2008
  • LRFD Resistance factors for static bearing capacity of driven steel pipe piles were calibrated in the freamework of reliability theory. Reliability analysis was performed by the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) using resistance bias factor statistics.The target reliability indices are selected as 2.0 and 2.33 for group pile case and 2.5 for single pile case, based on the reliability level of the current design practice and considering redundancy of pile group, acceptable risk level, construction quality control, and significance of individual structure.

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Analysis of Marginal Count Failure Data by using Covariates

  • Karim, Md.Rezaul;Suzuki, Kazuyuki
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2003
  • Manufacturers collect and analyze field reliability data to enhance the quality and reliability of their products and to improve customer satisfaction. To reduce the data collecting and maintenance costs, the amount of data maintained for evaluating product quality and reliability should be minimized. With this in mind, some industrial companies assemble warranty databases by gathering data from different sources for a particular time period. This “marginal count failure data” does not provide (i) the number of failures by when the product entered service, (ii) the number of failures by product age, or (iii) information about the effects of the operating season or environment. This article describes a method for estimating age-based claim rates from marginal count failure data. It uses covariates to identify variations in claims relative to variables such as manufacturing characteristics, time of manufacture, operating season or environment. A Poisson model is presented, and the method is illustrated using warranty claims data for two electrical products.

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A reliability measure of three dimensional shapes based on statistical shape analysis (통계적 형상분석을 이용한 3차원 형상의 신뢰도 계수)

  • Shin, Sang Min
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2019
  • The reliability of the data means the overall consistency of the measurement results. Methods for evaluating reliability have been continuously studied because it affects the results of the statistical analysis. Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ coefficient or intraclass correlation coefficient is used for reliability evaluation; however, these measures cannot be applied to data consisting of three-dimensional coordinates to represent an object. In this study, we propose a measure to evaluate the reliability of three dimensional shapes based on statistical shape analysis that is made possible by extracting the shape information from the measured three dimensional coordinates and decomposing the shape variation.

Reliability Assessment Criteria of Module for the LED traffic signal (LED 교통신호등용 모듈의 신뢰성평가기준)

  • Kim, Jin-Sheon;Park, Chang-Kyu;Kim, Dae-Kyung;Jeong, Hai-Sung
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 2010
  • Module of the LED traffic signal is the core component for the care of driver and walker. Also it is important one to control the traffic. If it is against the criteria of brightness, it is the source of the people's death and traffic congestion. Therefore, it is a list of articles desired the security of stability. However, there is not the analysis of failure and not preserve the uniformity of quality. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the criteria of appreciation for the module of the LED traffic signal to analysis the data of failure. In this paper, we investigate the performance test, environment field test and test of reliability appreciation to improve the reliability. We also set up the criteria of success decision using the real measurement data.

A Determinant Factors on Supply Chain Performance of Shipping and Logistics Firm in International Logistics (국제물류에서 해운물류기업의 공급사슬성과 결정요인)

  • Yun, Kwang-Woon;Bae, Hee-Sung
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.30
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    • pp.3-26
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    • 2006
  • Supply chain is viewed as a number of organizations(at least three) working cooperatively with at least some shared objectives. The concept of supply chain management represents the most advanced state in the evolutionary development of purchasing, procurement and other supply chain activities. This study aims to analyze and develop a measurement instrument for supply chain performance in international logistics. A measurement instrument for supply chain performance in international logistics are developed by Lai et al(2002). Supply chain reliability, customer service and cost are constructed reflecting service effectiveness and operations efficiency between shipper, forwarder and liner. The results of this study are as follow. We firstly tested the measurement properties of the sub-dimension of the supply chain performance construct using reliability test and confirmatory factor analysis follow by exploratory factor analysis. For each of the factor, reliability and validity are achieved because of the significant loading of the measurement items on their latent factors. Further research perform the analysis of variance by multi respondents within each firm and across partner firms in the supply chain. The result of analysis present the difference with shipper, forwarder and liner in statistics.

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Validity and Reliability for the Use of Program Outcome Indirect Measurement Tool in Korean Nursing Baccalaureate Education (간호교육 프로그램 학습성과 간접측정도구의 활용을 위한 신뢰도 및 타당도 검증)

  • Song, Mi Ok;Kim, Heeyoung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.608-618
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    • 2021
  • The aim of this study was to verify the feasibility and reliability of the program outcome indirect measurement tool developed for nursing college students in Korean. 396 nursing students from 5 nursing colleges participated in this study, data were collected from November 22 to December 10, 2019. Data analysis was conducted using the IBM Statistics SPSS 21.0 and AMOS 21.0 programs to analyze item analysis, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. As a result of the item analysis, all 79 items were selected for factor analysis. In the exploratory factor analysis, five items that were loaded with other factors were deleted. The final factor loading range was from .37 to .86, and the cumulative explanatory variance for 12 factors was 71.71%. No items were deleted as a result of the confirmatory factor analysis, and the final scale was consisted of 74 items. The average score for scale was 3.78 and Cronbach' α was .98. The feasibility and reliability of the program outcome indirect measurement tool have been verified through this study. Therefore it can be used as a more standardized indirect measurement tool for nursing college students.