• Title/Summary/Keyword: alternative models

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ACCURACY CURVES: AN ALTERNATIVE GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF PROBABILITY DATA

  • Detrano Robert
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02b
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    • pp.150-153
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    • 1994
  • Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have been frequently used to compare probability models applied to medical problems. Though the curves are a measure of the discriminatory power of a model. they do not reflect the model's accuracy. A supplementary accuracy curve is derived which will be coincident with the ROC curve if the model is reliable. will be above the ROC curve if the model's probabilities are too high or below if they are too low. A clinical example of this new graphical presentation is given.

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Experimental Investigation and Modeling of the Specific Enthalpy Distribution in a Spray Cone

  • Ellendt, N.;Uhlenwinkel, V.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Powder Metallurgy Institute Conference
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    • 2006.09a
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    • pp.58-59
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    • 2006
  • In Spray Forming, specific enthalpy is a key parameter in the deposition process as it influences the thermal condition of the impinging droplets as well as that of the deposit surface. An empirical model for the distribution of specific enthalpy in the spray cone was developed as an easy to handle alternative to numerical models with which the descriptive partial differential equations are solved numerically. The model results were compared with the experimental data to validate its applicability.

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Unit Water Production Cost Development for Alternative Water Resource Projects - Centered on the Economics of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) - (대안수자원시설의 음용수 단위생산비용 산출 - 청정지하저수지 경제성에 대한 고찰 -)

  • Choi, Jae-Ho;Shim, Young-Gyoo;Park, Nam-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2017
  • This paper intends to develop unit water production cost (UWPC) between alternative water resources including desalination, freshwater reservoirs, single-purpose dams, underground dams, and two indirect water in-take technologies - riverbank filtration and aquifer storage and recovery (ASR). The UWPCs of water supply schemes including each alternative are determined based on project cost, and operation and maintenance estimation models, which were developed based on real project cost data. The sensitivity analysis of UWPCs reveals that ASR is the lowest cost option in producing drinkable water among the alternatives, followed by riverbank filtration and underground dam. It is expected that economics related to the finding plays a critical role in supporting water resources planning and budget allocation for central and local water authority in Korea.

Screening of toxic potential of graphene family nanomaterials using in vitro and alternative in vivo toxicity testing systems

  • Chatterjee, Nivedita;Yang, Ji Su;Park, Kwangsik;Oh, Seung Min;Park, Jeonggue;Choi, Jinhee
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.30
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    • pp.7.1-7.7
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    • 2015
  • Objectives The widely promising applications of graphene nanomaterials raise considerable concerns regarding their environmental and human health risk assessment. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the toxicity profiling of graphene family nanano-materials (GFNs) in alternative in vitro and in vivo toxicity testing models. Methods The GFNs used in this study are graphene nanoplatelets ([GNPs]-pristine, carboxylate [COOH] and amide [$NH_2$]) and graphene oxides (single layer [SLGO] and few layers [FLGO]). The human bronchial epithelial cells (Beas2B cells) as in vitro system and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as in vivo system were used to profile the toxicity response of GFNs. Cytotoxicity assays, colony formation assay for cellular toxicity and reproduction potentiality in C. elegans were used as end points to evaluate the GFNs' toxicity. Results In general, GNPs exhibited higher toxicity than GOs in Beas2B cells, and among the GNPs the order of toxicity was pristine > $NH_2$ > COOH. Although the order of toxicity of the GNPs was maintained in C. elegans reproductive toxicity, but GOs were found to be more toxic in the worms than GNPs. In both systems, SLGO exhibited profoundly greater dose dependency than FLGO. The possible reason of their differential toxicity lay in their distinctive physicochemical characteristics and agglomeration behavior in the exposure media. Conclusions The present study revealed that the toxicity of GFNs is dependent on the graphene nanomaterial's physical forms, surface functionalizations, number of layers, dose, time of exposure and obviously, on the alternative model systems used for toxicity assessment.

Introducing Social Capital to Sustainable Development Modeling: Comments on Three System Dynamics Models (지속가능발전 모델링에 있어서 사회자본의 도입: 세 편의 시스템 다이내믹스 모델에 대한 제언)

  • Kim, Hye-Ihn;Jeon, Dae-Uk
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.25-45
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    • 2009
  • The concept of social capital has recently been highlighted in most fields of social science because social capital is believed to be an alternative of market and government failures. However, social capital is of high ambiguity that hinders in conceptualizing and modeling that can differs from the premises, such as whether social capital lies in individual actors or collective substances, or whether social networks are functioning by rationality or emotion. This study therefore tries to examine the concept of social capital and suggest 6 types of it following by the anthropologic concept of 'reciprocity' as well as to provide fruitful discussions on the introduction of social capital variables to System Dynamics modeling of sustainable development. Conclusively, the introduction of social capital to the integration models of environment-economy-society should be based on strongly understanding the social networks, individual identities, and local particularities of the relevant localities in order to enhance the structural validity and applicability of sustainable development models in System Dynamics.

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Assessment of stress-strain model for UHPC confined by steel tube stub columns

  • Hoang, An Le;Fehling, Ekkehard
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.63 no.3
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 2017
  • Ultra high performance concrete (UHPC) has recently been applied as an alternative to conventional concrete in construction due to its extremely high compressive and tensile strength, and enhanced durability. However, up to date, there has been insufficient information regarding the confinement behavior of UHPC columns. Therefore, this study aims to perform an assessment of axial stress-strain model for UHPC confined by circular steel tube stub columns. The equations for calculating the confined peak stress and its corresponding strain of confined concrete in existing models suggested by Johansson (2002), Sakino et al. (2004), Han et al. (2005), Hatzigeorgiou (2008) were modified based on the regression analysis of test results in Schneider (2006) in order to increase the prediction accuracy for the case of confined UHPC. Furthermore, a new axial stress-strain model for confined UHPC was developed. To examine the suitability of the modified models and the proposed model for confined UHPC, axial stress-strain curves derived from the proposed models were compared with those obtained from previous test results. After validating the proposed model, an extensive parametric study was undertaken to investigate the effects of diameter-to-thickness ratio, steel yield strength and concrete compressive strength on the complete axial stress-strain curves, the strength and strain enhancement of UHPC confined by circular steel tube stub columns.

Extended Forecasts of a Stock Index using Learning Techniques : A Study of Predictive Granularity and Input Diversity

  • Kim, Steven H.;Lee, Dong-Yun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 1997
  • The utility of learning techniques in investment analysis has been demonstrated in many areas, ranging from forecasting individual stocks to entire market indexes. To date, however, the application of artificial intelligence to financial forecasting has focused largely on short predictive horizons. Usually the forecast window is a single period ahead; if the input data involve daily observations, the forecast is for one day ahead; if monthly observations, then a month ahead; and so on. Thus far little work has been conducted on the efficacy of long-term prediction involving multiperiod forecasting. This paper examines the impact of alternative procedures for extended prediction using knowledge discovery techniques. One dimension in the study involves temporal granularity: a single jump from the present period to the end of the forecast window versus a web of short-term forecasts involving a sequence of single-period predictions. Another parameter relates to the numerosity of input variables: a technical approach involving only lagged observations of the target variable versus a fundamental approach involving multiple variables. The dual possibilities along each of the granularity and numerosity dimensions entail a total of 4 models. These models are first evaluated using neural networks, then compared against a multi-input jump model using case based reasoning. The computational models are examined in the context of forecasting the S&P 500 index.

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A Methodology for Integrating Business Process and Simulation for Business Process Redesign

  • Kim, Joong-In;Yim, Dong-Soon;Choi, Jung-Sang;Kim, Keun-Chong
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.74-97
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    • 2005
  • IDEF0 is the IEEE standard for functional enterprise modeling and has been used for business process modeling or process mapping in US and Europe. But it does not reflect the potential benefits of modeling and simulation of the dynamic aspects of an enterprise or a system. On the other hand, simulation tools concentrate mostly on the simulation of material flows and are difficult to include information flows and control flows. Additionally, the simulation models that include elements such as queues, event generators and process nodes is a visual interactive representation for the model builder, but is inconvenient for the domain expert. In an attempt to fill that void, we provide an integration of business process and simulation models in this paper. An enhancement of the IDEF0, called parameterized IDEF0, is proposed and its conversion mechanism to network simulation model is developed. Using this methodology, business process models for alternative systems can be evaluated and compared through simulation on time, cost, and quality metrics. As an application of the proposed methodology, economic evaluation of EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) for time-based BPR (Business Process Redesign) is demonstrated. In addition to BPR, the developed methodology may be further integrated with ABC (Activity Based Costing), TQM (Total Quality Management), and economic evaluation of information systems.

A Study on Building up the Portal Service to Support Low-Carbon City Planning in Korea (저탄소도시계획지원을 위한 포털서비스의 구축방향)

  • Kim, Han-Jun;Choi, Hong-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.2465-2473
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    • 2013
  • This study reviews planning support systems (PSS) in the context of the development processes of urban models(focusing on Land-Use Transport Models, LUTM) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), both of which are key components of PSS supporting spatial plannings like urban and regional planning. It also explores changing planning environments like increased demands of citizen participation, especially in the environmental sector like global warming, and intensified development of Information technologies based on Internet and mobile networks. As a conclusion this study proposes a prototype of portal service to support low-carbon city planning to mitigate the greenhouse gas as an alternative to supplement or reinforce PSS, reflecting the changing planning environments.

Negative Exponential Disparity Based Deviance and Goodness-of-fit Tests for Continuous Models: Distributions, Efficiency and Robustness

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin;Sahadeb Sarkar
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.41-61
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    • 2001
  • The minimum negative exponential disparity estimator(MNEDE), introduced by Lindsay(1994), is an excellenet competitor to the minimum Hellinger distance estimator(Beran 1977) as a robust and yet efficient alternative to the maximum likelihood estimator in parametric models. In this paper we define the negative exponential deviance test(NEDT) as an analog of the likelihood ratio test(LRT), and show that the NEDT is asymptotically equivalent to he LRT at the model and under a sequence of contiguous alternatives. We establish that the asymptotic strong breakdown point for a class of minimum disparity estimators, containing the MNEDE, is at least 1/2 in continuous models. This result leads us to anticipate robustness of the NEDT under data contamination, and we demonstrate it empirically. In fact, in the simulation settings considered here the empirical level of the NEDT show more stability than the Hellinger deviance test(Simpson 1989). The NEDT is illustrated through an example data set. We also define a goodness-of-fit statistic to assess adequacy of a specified parametric model, and establish its asymptotic normality under the null hypothesis.

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